HTGC
Hercules Capital, Inc.
HTGC offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over HTGC overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
HTGC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
HTGC's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like HTGC.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
HTGC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.4x | $13.94 | -12% |
| Forward | 8.2x | $15.85 | — |
| Current | 8.4x | $15.85 | — |
| Fair | 10x | $19.30 | +22% |
| Expensive | 14x | $25.82 | +63% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HTGC has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
HTGC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect HTGC's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over HTGC on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
HTGC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.93 | +2.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.88 | +9.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.03 | +34% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.79 | +35% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.85 | +15% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.72 | -15% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.51 | -16% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.33 | -40% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.61 | -30% |
HTGC's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $1.88 over the past year, against $2.89 in mid-2021.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over HTGC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HTGC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2022 | $87.4M | +52% |
| Q2 2022 | $21.7M | -81% |
| Q1 2022 | $29.7M | -70% |
| Q4 2021 | $40.2M | -78% |
| Q3 2021 | $57.4M | -23% |
| Q2 2021 | $115.3M | +23% |
| Q1 2021 | $98.4M | +2179% |
| Q4 2020 | $184.3M | +145% |
HTGC has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is up 52% for HTGC versus up 12% for MS.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2022 | 61% | +20 points |
| Q2 2022 | -48% | -119 points |
| Q1 2022 | -11% | -77 points |
| Q4 2021 | 9.2% | -73 points |
| Q3 2021 | 41% | -17 points |
| Q2 2021 | 72% | +6.1 points |
| Q1 2021 | 65% | +731 points |
| Q4 2020 | 82% | +23 points |
HTGC's operating margin was 61% last quarter, up 20 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
HTGC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$165.6M | -$162.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $297.9M | +$442.8M |
| Q1 2026 | -$230.7M | -$8.4M |
| Q4 2025 | -$55.6M | -$26.4M |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.2M | -103% |
| Q2 2025 | -$144.8M | -345% |
| Q1 2025 | -$222.2M | +$19M |
| Q4 2024 | -$29.2M | -122% |
HTGC's free cash flow was −$154M over the past year, against −$399M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like HTGC.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS has the edge over HTGC on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HTGC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +501K shares |
| 1 year | +2.9% | +5.7M shares |
| 3 years | +36% | +53M shares |
| 5 years | +72% | +83.8M shares |
| Available history | +89% | +94M shares |
HTGC has 200M diluted shares, up 2.9% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $693,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $819,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $3.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $1M |
| Q3 2025 | $974,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $1M |
| Q1 2025 | $3.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $1M |
HTGC spent $6M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 9.3% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over HTGC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
HTGC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2022 | 33.8x | High |
| Q2 2022 | 100.4x | High |
| Q1 2022 | 11.9x | High |
| Q4 2021 | 6.4x | High |
| Q3 2021 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2021 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q1 2021 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2020 | 4.8x | High |
HTGC's net debt is more than 20 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.7 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like HTGC.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HTGC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.0 | Oversold |
HTGC's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 18 (oversold).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
HTGC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | HTGC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.4x | 13x | 35% below |
| PE % | 30 | 63 | 33 pts below |
HTGC has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
HTGC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $16.5 | 3.6% below |
| 20 week MA | $16.6 | 4.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $16.4 | 3.6% below |
| 100 week MA | $17.6 | 10% below |
| 200 week MA | $17.4 | 8.6% below |
HTGC is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 8.6% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over HTGC on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
HTGC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.1 | $14.1 | +0.2% |
| 2021 | $14.1 | $16.5 | +17% |
| 2022 | $16.5 | $13.2 | -20% |
| 2023 | $13.2 | $16.7 | +26% |
| 2024 | $16.7 | $20.1 | +20% |
| 2025 | $20.1 | $18.7 | -6.9% |
| 2026 YTD | $18.7 | $15.9 | -15% |
HTGC has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 15% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over HTGC on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.