HRTG
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc.
HRTG offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over HRTG overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.
HRTG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
HRTG's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like HRTG.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
HRTG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 4.7x | $33.51 | 0% |
| Current | 4.7x | $33.50 | — |
| Fair | 6.7x | $47.72 | +42% |
| Forward | 7.1x | $33.50 | — |
| Expensive | 13x | $91.25 | +172% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HRTG has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
HRTG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Decline | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect HRTG's earnings and profitability to decline, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over HRTG on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
HRTG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.72 | -34% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.11 | +47% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.02 | +102% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.52 | +158% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.32 | +214% |
| Q3 2025 | $4.83 | +93% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.47 | +78% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.53 | +54% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.01 | +17% |
HRTG has the edge over MS on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
HRTG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $219.2M | +3.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $214.2M | +3% |
| Q1 2026 | $212.7M | +0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $215.3M | +2.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $212.5M | +0.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $208M | +2.2% |
| Q1 2025 | $211.5M | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $210.3M | +12% |
HRTG's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $219M last quarter, up 3.2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 39% | +8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 24% | +3.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 42% | +27 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +28 points |
| Q2 2025 | 31% | +18 points |
| Q1 2025 | 20% | +8.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 15% | -4.3 points |
HRTG's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over HRTG on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over HRTG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HRTG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $9.5M | -92% |
| Q2 2026 | $141M | +238% |
| Q1 2026 | $23M | +$24.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $10.9M | +$69.6M |
| Q3 2025 | $122.7M | +$139.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $41.8M | -72% |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.3M | -131% |
| Q4 2024 | -$58.6M | -160% |
HRTG has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HRTG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1% | -292K shares |
| 1 year | -4% | -1.2M shares |
| 3 years | +12% | +3.1M shares |
| 5 years | +6.6% | +1.8M shares |
| Available history | +1.9% | +552K shares |
HRTG has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $14.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $10M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
| Q1 2023 | — |
HRTG spent $26M buying back its own shares over the past year.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
HRTG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -2.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -3.3x | Net Cash |
HRTG has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HRTG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 50.1 | Neutral |
HRTG's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 50 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
HRTG PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | HRTG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 4.7x | 13x | 64% below |
| PE % | 16 | 63 | 47 pts below |
HRTG has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
HRTG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $34.6 | 3.3% below |
| 20 week MA | $32.7 | 2.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $28.6 | 17% above |
| 100 week MA | $24.3 | 38% above |
| 200 week MA | $15.8 | 113% above |
HRTG has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
HRTG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $13.4 | $10.1 | -24% |
| 2021 | $10.1 | $5.91 | -42% |
| 2022 | $5.91 | $1.85 | -69% |
| 2023 | $1.85 | $6.52 | +252% |
| 2024 | $6.52 | $12.1 | +85% |
| 2025 | $12.1 | $29.0 | +141% |
| 2026 YTD | $29.0 | $33.5 | +16% |
HRTG has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.