HPE
Hewlett Packard Enterprise Company
HPE has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LITE
Lumentum Holdings Inc.
LITE has the edge over HPE overall, supported by stronger valuation.
HPE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
HPE's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
LITE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
LITE's revenue, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable.
HPE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.4x | $12.41 | -75% |
| Forward | 11x | $50.16 | — |
| Fair | 16x | $30.89 | -38% |
| Expensive | 26x | $49.82 | -0.7% |
| Current | 26x | $50.16 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HPE's PE is in its expensive range at 26x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 11x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
LITE PE Valuation
LITE has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
HPE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HPE, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LITE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LITE, with profitability improving.
HPE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.68 | +141% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.94 | +128% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.09 | +6.9% |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.17 | -108% |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.04 | -102% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.85 | -39% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.02 | -26% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.08 | +43% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.93 | +25% |
HPE has the edge over LITE on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
LITE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $29.10 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$89.47 | -5589% |
| Q2 2026 | -$92.96 | -25224% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.54 | +$12.02 |
| Q4 2025 | $3.40 | +$11.12 |
| Q3 2025 | $1.63 | +$9.94 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.37 | +$8.49 |
| Q1 2025 | -$6.48 | -$1.22 |
| Q4 2024 | -$7.72 | -$3.77 |
LITE has swung to a loss: it lost $89.47 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
HPE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $12.2B | +34% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.7B | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.3B | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.7B | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.1B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.6B | +5.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.9B | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.5B | +15% |
HPE's revenue has grown year over year for 10 quarters in a row: $12.2B last quarter, up 34% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 11% | +8.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7% | +22 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | -0.1% | -8.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 2.7% | -4.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | -15% | -20 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.5% | -2.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 8.2% | +1.3 points |
HPE's operating margin was 11% last quarter, up 8.7 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
LITE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.3B | +137% |
| Q2 2026 | $1B | +109% |
| Q1 2026 | $808.4M | +90% |
| Q4 2025 | $665.5M | +65% |
| Q3 2025 | $533.8M | +58% |
| Q2 2025 | $480.7M | +56% |
| Q1 2025 | $425.2M | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $402.2M | +9.7% |
LITE has the edge over HPE on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 29% | +27 points |
| Q2 2026 | 28% | +30 points |
| Q1 2026 | 22% | +31 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9.7% | +23 points |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3% | +26 points |
| Q2 2025 | -1.8% | +42 points |
| Q1 2025 | -8.9% | +22 points |
| Q4 2024 | -13% | +16 points |
LITE has the edge over HPE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HPE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $896M | +23% |
| Q2 2026 | $827M | +$1.8B |
| Q1 2026 | $609M | +$1.5B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.8B | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $729M | +19% |
| Q2 2025 | -$1B | -289% |
| Q1 2025 | -$918M | -$326M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.4B | -34% |
HPE generated $4.2B in free cash flow over the past year, more than ten times what it generated the year before.
LITE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $37.9M | +$56.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $196.2M | +1843% |
| Q1 2026 | $79.1M | +$143.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $43.1M | +$59M |
| Q3 2025 | -$18.3M | +$16.2M |
| Q2 2025 | $10.1M | -7.3% |
| Q1 2025 | -$64.4M | -$37.8M |
| Q4 2024 | -$15.9M | +$16.6M |
LITE has the edge over HPE on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HPE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.2% | +17M shares |
| 1 year | +2% | +28M shares |
| 3 years | +10% | +133M shares |
| 5 years | +8.3% | +111M shares |
| Available history | +6.1% | +83M shares |
HPE has the edge over LITE on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $135M |
| Q2 2026 | $154M |
| Q1 2026 | $158M |
| Q4 2025 | $100M |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $50M |
| Q1 2025 | $52M |
| Q4 2024 | $50M |
HPE spent $547M buying back its own shares over the past year, about four times what it spent the year before.
LITE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +5.7% | +5.5M shares |
| 1 year | +46% | +32.1M shares |
| 3 years | +49% | +33.4M shares |
| 5 years | +31% | +24.2M shares |
| Available history | +30% | +23.7M shares |
LITE has 102M diluted shares, up 46% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2024 | — |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | $139.8M |
| Q1 2023 | — |
| Q4 2022 | — |
| Q3 2022 | $35.8M |
HPE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 6.4x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 7.2x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 6.9x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.7x | Very low |
HPE's net debt is about 2.3 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 6.9 years a year ago.
LITE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 7.9x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 21.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 22.7x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 27.9x | High |
| Q3 2023 | -34.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2023 | -7.2x | Net Cash |
LITE has the edge over HPE on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HPE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 50.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 22.0 | Neutral |
HPE's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 22 (neutral).
LITE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 22.8 | Neutral |
LITE's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 23 (neutral).
HPE PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | HPE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 26x | 28x | 7.2% below |
| PE % | 83 | 35 | 48 pts above |
HPE is trading at 26x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.
LITE PE vs Technology Sector
| Metric | LITE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 28x | — |
LITE has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
HPE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $58.5 | 14% below |
| 20 week MA | $54.6 | 8.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $38.8 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $29.6 | 70% above |
| 200 week MA | $23.5 | 114% above |
HPE has the edge over LITE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
LITE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $839.3 | 26% below |
| 20 week MA | $838.6 | 26% below |
| 50 week MA | $732.7 | 15% below |
| 100 week MA | $422.7 | 48% above |
| 200 week MA | $237.9 | 163% above |
LITE has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 163% above its 200-week average.
HPE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $15.9 | $11.8 | -26% |
| 2021 | $11.8 | $15.8 | +34% |
| 2022 | $15.8 | $15.8 | -0.1% |
| 2023 | $15.8 | $17.0 | +7.8% |
| 2024 | $17.0 | $21.7 | +28% |
| 2025 | $21.7 | $24.5 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $24.5 | $50.2 | +105% |
HPE has the edge over LITE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
LITE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $79.0 | $98.3 | +24% |
| 2021 | $98.3 | $104.5 | +6.3% |
| 2022 | $104.5 | $50.6 | -52% |
| 2023 | $50.6 | $52.4 | +3.7% |
| 2024 | $52.4 | $84.4 | +61% |
| 2025 | $84.4 | $390.8 | +363% |
| 2026 YTD | $390.8 | $624.7 | +60% |
LITE's yearly returns have swung widely, from +363% in 2025 to −52% in 2022. It's up 60% so far in 2026.