HMN
Horace Mann Educators Corporation
HMN has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has a slight edge over HMN overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
HMN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
HMN's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like HMN.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
HMN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $45.56 | -14% |
| Forward | 11x | $52.78 | — |
| Current | 12x | $52.78 | — |
| Fair | 13x | $57.21 | +8.4% |
| Expensive | 21x | $88.69 | +68% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HMN has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
HMN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect HMN's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over HMN on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
HMN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.02 | +17% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.29 | +8.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.28 | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.98 | +44% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.90 | +57% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.95 | +57% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.38 | +72% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.76 | +76% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.48 | +128% |
HMN has the edge over MS on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
HMN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $439.2M | +0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $443.5M | +7.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $429.3M | +3.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $434.8M | +6.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $438.5M | +6.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $411.7M | +6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $416.4M | +7.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $409M | +1.5% |
HMN's revenue has grown year over year for 17 quarters in a row: $439M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 17% | +0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 11% | +2.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 12% | +0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 11% | -1.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | +5.9 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.9% | +7.7 points |
| Q1 2025 | 11% | +2.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | +0.1 points |
HMN's operating margin was 17% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over HMN on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over HMN on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HMN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112M | -26% |
| Q2 2026 | $223.7M | +70% |
| Q1 2026 | $61.3M | -56% |
| Q4 2025 | $129.9M | -33% |
| Q3 2025 | $151.2M | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $131.3M | +227% |
| Q1 2025 | $140.8M | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | $193.5M | +88% |
HMN has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HMN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.5% | +200K shares |
| 1 year | -0.5% | -200K shares |
| 3 years | 0% | -- |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -800K shares |
| Available history | -1.5% | -619K shares |
HMN has 41M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1M |
| Q2 2026 | $100,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $18.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $6.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $6.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $6.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $200,000 |
| Q4 2024 | — |
HMN spent $26M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 89% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over HMN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
HMN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.8x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.3x | Elevated |
HMN has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HMN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 63.6 | Neutral |
HMN's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 64 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
HMN PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | HMN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 5.5% below |
| PE % | 42 | 63 | 21 pts below |
HMN has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
HMN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $47.7 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $50.0 | 5.6% above |
| 50 week MA | $46.9 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $44.7 | 18% above |
| 200 week MA | $39.3 | 34% above |
HMN has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
HMN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $43.7 | $41.7 | -4.6% |
| 2021 | $41.7 | $38.6 | -7.5% |
| 2022 | $38.6 | $37.9 | -1.8% |
| 2023 | $37.9 | $32.7 | -14% |
| 2024 | $32.7 | $39.3 | +20% |
| 2025 | $39.3 | $46.5 | +18% |
| 2026 YTD | $46.5 | $52.8 | +14% |
HMN has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.