HIG
The Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc.
HIG offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has a slight edge over HIG overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
HIG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
HIG's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like HIG.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
HIG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 8.3x | $137 | — |
| Cheap | 9.2x | $152 | +11% |
| Forward | 10x | $137 | — |
| Fair | 11x | $187 | +37% |
| Expensive | 13x | $208 | +52% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HIG has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
HIG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect HIG's earnings, revenue and profitability to hold roughly steady.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over HIG on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
HIG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.28 | -20% |
| Q3 2026 | $16.50 | +35% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.45 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.21 | +42% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.32 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $12.24 | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.03 | +16% |
| Q1 2025 | $10.03 | +14% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.35 | +30% |
HIG's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $16.50 over the past year, up 35% from the year before, and higher year over year for 14 quarters in a row.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over HIG on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
HIG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.2B | -0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.3B | +4% |
| Q1 2026 | $7.2B | +6.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.3B | +6.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.2B | +7.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $7B | +7.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.8B | +6.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.9B | +7.5% |
HIG's revenue is growing: $7.2B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 22% | +3.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 17% | -0.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 15% | +3.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 19% | +3.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 18% | +4.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 18% | +3.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | -2.7 points |
| Q4 2024 | 16% | +0.8 points |
HIG's operating margin was 22% last quarter, up 3.7 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over HIG on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over HIG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HIG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +4.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $1B | +7.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.8B | -7.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.8B | +11% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +4.3% |
| Q1 2025 | $947M | -9.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.9B | +22% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.6B | -5.9% |
HIG has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HIG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.2% | -3.2M shares |
| 1 year | -4.2% | -11.9M shares |
| 3 years | -12% | -35.9M shares |
| 5 years | -22% | -77.6M shares |
| Available history | -25% | -91.8M shares |
HIG has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $475M |
| Q2 2026 | $466M |
| Q1 2026 | $450M |
| Q4 2025 | $400M |
| Q3 2025 | $400M |
| Q2 2025 | $415M |
| Q1 2025 | $400M |
| Q4 2024 | $414M |
HIG spent $1.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 9.9% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
HIG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.0x | Very low |
HIG has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HIG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.9 | Neutral |
HIG's weekly RSI is 53 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
HIG PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | HIG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.3x | 13x | 36% below |
| PE % | 8 | 63 | 55 pts below |
HIG has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
HIG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $131.8 | 3.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $135.8 | 0.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $135.3 | 1.2% above |
| 100 week MA | $129.3 | 5.9% above |
| 200 week MA | $109.0 | 26% above |
HIG has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
HIG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $60.6 | $48.4 | -20% |
| 2021 | $48.4 | $68.3 | +41% |
| 2022 | $68.3 | $76.1 | +12% |
| 2023 | $76.1 | $80.4 | +5.6% |
| 2024 | $80.4 | $110.1 | +37% |
| 2025 | $110.1 | $138.7 | +26% |
| 2026 YTD | $138.7 | $136.9 | -1.3% |
HIG has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 1.3% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over HIG on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.