HGV
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.
HGV has the edge over NIO overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
NIO
NIO Inc.
NIO's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
HGV Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
HGV's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
NIO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Unavailable |
NIO's revenue is currently strong, and its profitability and cash flow are stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.
HGV PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 8.5x | $43.92 | — |
| Forward | 9.5x | $43.92 | — |
| Cheap | 13x | $65.69 | +50% |
| Fair | 20x | $104 | +138% |
| Expensive | 80x | $411 | +837% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HGV's PE is in its cheap range at 8.5x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 9.5x.
NIO PE Valuation
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
HGV Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect HGV's earnings to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
NIO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Losses shrinking | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
NIO has the edge over HGV on the outlook, with more favorable revenue and profitability expectations.
HGV Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.63 | -10% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.17 | +840% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.75 | +218% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.85 | +478% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.89 | +98% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.55 | -38% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.55 | -62% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.32 | -85% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.45 | -84% |
HGV has the edge over NIO on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
NIO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -$0.29 | +$1.45 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.60 | +$1.16 |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.06 | +$0.60 |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.59 | +$0.02 |
| Q2 2025 | -$1.74 | -$0.10 |
| Q1 2025 | -$1.76 | +$0.06 |
| Q4 2024 | -$1.66 | +$0.21 |
| Q3 2024 | -$1.61 | +$0.32 |
NIO is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.29 per share over the past year, against $1.93 at its worst in late 2023.
HGV Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2B | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.4B | +7.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.3B | +12% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.3B | +3.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B | -0.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | +2.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.1B | -0.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | +26% |
HGV's revenue has grown year over year for four quarters in a row: $2B last quarter, up 51% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 25% | +16 points |
| Q2 2026 | 6.7% | -2.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 11% | +5.9 points |
| Q4 2025 | 13% | +2.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.3% | -3.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 8.8% | +1.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 5.2% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 10% | -4.2 points |
HGV has the edge over NIO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
NIO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $4.8B | +69% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.8B | +112% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.2B | +76% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.3B | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +9% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | +21% |
| Q4 2024 | $3B | +15% |
| Q3 2024 | $2.8B | -2.1% |
NIO has the edge over HGV on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | -2.1% | +24 points |
| Q1 2026 | -1.2% | +52 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3% | +33 points |
| Q3 2025 | -16% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -26% | +4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -53% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -31% | +8.1 points |
| Q3 2024 | -28% | -2.6 points |
NIO's operating margin was −2.1% last quarter, up 24 points from the same quarter a year ago.
HGV Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $73M | +462% |
| Q2 2026 | $131M | +185% |
| Q1 2026 | $122M | +408% |
| Q4 2025 | $147M | +63% |
| Q3 2025 | $13M | -84% |
| Q2 2025 | $46M | -57% |
| Q1 2025 | $24M | +$34M |
| Q4 2024 | $90M | +$103M |
HGV has the edge over NIO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NIO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | +$2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | +$391.3M |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | -$2.1B | +$73.9M |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | -$391.3M | -386% |
| Q2 2024 | -$2.2B | +$337.9M |
NIO's free cash flow was $0 over the past year, against −$2.5B the year before.
HGV Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.8% | -2.3M shares |
| 1 year | -13% | -11.5M shares |
| 3 years | -29% | -32.3M shares |
| 5 years | -28% | -30.5M shares |
| Available history | -12% | -10.7M shares |
HGV has the edge over NIO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $110M |
| Q2 2026 | $150M |
| Q1 2026 | $150M |
| Q4 2025 | $150M |
| Q3 2025 | $150M |
| Q2 2025 | $150M |
| Q1 2025 | $150M |
| Q4 2024 | $125M |
HGV spent $560M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 2.6% from the year before.
NIO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.6% | +15.6M shares |
| 1 year | +12% | +267M shares |
| 3 years | +51% | +844M shares |
| 5 years | +60% | +933M shares |
| Available history | +143% | +1.5B shares |
NIO has 2.5B diluted shares, up 12% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
NIO hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
HGV Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 5.7x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 5.5x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.9x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 6.5x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 5.9x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.8x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.9x | High |
HGV's net debt is about 3.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 6.5 years a year ago.
NIO Net Leverage
NIO's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.
HGV Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 53.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 57.5 | Neutral |
HGV's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 58 (neutral).
NIO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 30.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 6.9 | Oversold |
NIO's weekly RSI is 31 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 7 (oversold).
HGV PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | HGV | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.5x | 18x | 53% below |
| PE % | 3 | 47 | 44 pts below |
HGV is trading at 8.5x earnings, a 53% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
NIO PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
NIO has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
HGV Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $37.9 | 16% above |
| 20 week MA | $42.4 | 3.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $44.7 | 1.7% below |
| 100 week MA | $43.0 | 2.2% above |
| 200 week MA | $42.5 | 3.4% above |
HGV has the edge over NIO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NIO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $3.36 | 9.2% below |
| 20 week MA | $4.01 | 24% below |
| 50 week MA | $4.81 | 37% below |
| 100 week MA | $4.85 | 37% below |
| 200 week MA | $6.03 | 49% below |
NIO is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 49% below its 200-week average.
HGV Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $34.5 | $30.5 | -12% |
| 2021 | $30.5 | $51.2 | +68% |
| 2022 | $51.2 | $39.0 | -24% |
| 2023 | $39.0 | $40.2 | +3.2% |
| 2024 | $40.2 | $39.6 | -1.4% |
| 2025 | $39.6 | $45.2 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $45.2 | $43.9 | -2.9% |
HGV has the edge over NIO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NIO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $2.42 | $45.8 | +1791% |
| 2021 | $45.8 | $30.5 | -33% |
| 2022 | $30.5 | $11.0 | -64% |
| 2023 | $11.0 | $9.07 | -17% |
| 2024 | $9.07 | $4.48 | -51% |
| 2025 | $4.48 | $5.10 | +14% |
| 2026 YTD | $5.10 | $3.05 | -40% |
NIO's yearly returns have swung widely, from +1791% in 2020 to −64% in 2022. It's down 40% so far in 2026.