HGBL
Heritage Global Inc.
HGBL offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over HGBL overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
HGBL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Weak | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
HGBL's revenue is currently stable, but its profitability is weak. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like HGBL.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
HGBL PE Valuation
HGBL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
HGBL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect HGBL's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over HGBL on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
HGBL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.14 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$0.41 | -556% |
| Q2 2026 | -$0.42 | -520% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.09 | -25% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.10 | -29% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.09 | -68% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.10 | -67% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.12 | -60% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.14 | -58% |
HGBL has swung to a loss: it lost $0.41 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over HGBL on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
HGBL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $14.6M | +28% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.3M | -14% |
| Q1 2026 | $12.7M | -5.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.9M | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.4M | +9.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.3M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $13.5M | +11% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.8M | -30% |
HGBL's revenue has held roughly level: $15M last quarter, up 28% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.2% | -4.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | -170% | -186 points |
| Q1 2026 | 7.9% | -2.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 6.5% | -7.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 11% | -2.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | -14 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | -11 points |
| Q4 2024 | 14% | -16 points |
HGBL's operating margin was 7.2% last quarter, down 4.3 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over HGBL on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over HGBL on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HGBL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.6M | +$2.8M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.4M | -18% |
| Q1 2026 | -$3.2M | +$1.6M |
| Q4 2025 | $971K | +$6.5M |
| Q3 2025 | -$233K | -104% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.7M | -71% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4.8M | -390% |
| Q4 2024 | -$5.5M | -1394% |
HGBL has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HGBL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +1.3% | +443K shares |
| 1 year | -0.4% | -134K shares |
| 3 years | -6.8% | -2.6M shares |
| 5 years | -5.4% | -2M shares |
| Available history | +20% | +5.8M shares |
HGBL has 35M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | $134,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $141,000 |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $1.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $1M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1M |
HGBL spent $275,000 buying back its own shares over the past year, down 93% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over HGBL on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
HGBL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.3x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
HGBL has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like HGBL.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HGBL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 48.5 | Neutral |
HGBL's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 49 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
HGBL PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | HGBL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 13x | — |
HGBL has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
HGBL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1.26 | 7.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $1.24 | 6.5% below |
| 50 week MA | $1.28 | 9.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $1.61 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $2.14 | 46% below |
HGBL is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 46% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over HGBL on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
HGBL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $0.90 | $3.13 | +248% |
| 2021 | $3.13 | $1.50 | -52% |
| 2022 | $1.50 | $2.37 | +58% |
| 2023 | $2.37 | $2.78 | +17% |
| 2024 | $2.78 | $1.72 | -38% |
| 2025 | $1.72 | $1.26 | -27% |
| 2026 YTD | $1.26 | $1.16 | -7.9% |
HGBL's yearly returns have swung widely, from +248% in 2020 to −52% in 2021. It's down 7.9% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over HGBL on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.