HDB
HDFC Bank Limited
HDB offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over HDB overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
HDB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
HDB's revenue and profitability are currently strong. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like HDB.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
HDB PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 16x | $25.71 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $30.82 | +20% |
| Fair | 23x | $37.39 | +45% |
| Expensive | 29x | $47.45 | +85% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HDB has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
HDB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HDB, but weaker profitability.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over HDB on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.
HDB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $1.65 | +13% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.59 | +8.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.56 | +7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.51 | +4.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.46 | +8.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.47 | +8.9% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.45 | +8.2% |
| Q3 2024 | $1.44 | +7.5% |
HDB's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $1.65 over the past year, up 13% from the year before, and higher year over year for eight quarters in a row.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over HDB on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
HDB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $14.3B | +0.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $12.7B | +72% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.7B | +14% |
| Q3 2025 | $12.9B | +33% |
| Q2 2025 | $14.2B | +14% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.3B | +0.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $12B | -2.5% |
| Q3 2024 | $9.6B | -16% |
HDB's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $14.3B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 20% | +4.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 24% | +1.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 21% | -0.1 points |
| Q3 2025 | 22% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | -3.8 points |
| Q1 2025 | 22% | +5.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 21% | +2.9 points |
| Q3 2024 | 23% | +3.5 points |
HDB's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 4.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over HDB on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over HDB on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HDB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $0 | $0 |
| Q1 2026 | $18.4B | +$18.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q3 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q2 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q1 2025 | $0 | $0 |
| Q4 2024 | $0 | $0 |
| Q3 2024 | $0 | $0 |
HDB has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HDB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -2.6M shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +12.4M shares |
| 3 years | +37% | +1.4B shares |
| 5 years | +39% | +1.5B shares |
| Available history | +39% | +1.5B shares |
HDB has 5.1B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
HDB hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over HDB on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
HDB Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 2.6x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 0.1x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 4.8x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 4.8x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 5.1x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 5.3x | High |
| Q3 2024 | 7.1x | High |
HDB has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HDB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 55.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 68.2 | Neutral |
HDB's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
HDB PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | HDB | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 13x | 20% above |
| PE % | 5 | 63 | 58 pts below |
HDB is trading at 16x earnings, a 20% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x, though its earnings don't support one.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over HDB on valuation relative to its sector.
HDB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $23.3 | 10% above |
| 20 week MA | $23.8 | 8.1% above |
| 50 week MA | $27.0 | 4.9% below |
| 100 week MA | $30.9 | 17% below |
| 200 week MA | $31.1 | 17% below |
HDB has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 17% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over HDB on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
HDB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $31.6 | $34.8 | +10% |
| 2021 | $34.8 | $31.6 | -9.1% |
| 2022 | $31.6 | $33.4 | +5.7% |
| 2023 | $33.4 | $33.6 | +0.4% |
| 2024 | $33.6 | $32.3 | -3.8% |
| 2025 | $32.3 | $36.5 | +13% |
| 2026 YTD | $36.5 | $25.7 | -29% |
HDB has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 29% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over HDB on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.