HCSG

Healthcare Services Group, Inc.

73
Fundamentals71/ 100
Valuation75/ 100
Upside potential72/ 100
Risk potential15/ 100

HCSG has the edge over UNH overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.

UNH

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

62
Fundamentals51/ 100
Valuation56/ 100
Upside potential71/ 100
Risk potential15/ 100

UNH's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

HCSG Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Healthy
Stable
Strong

HCSG's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable.

UNH Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Stable
Healthy
Healthy

UNH's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.

HCSG PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE33x65x98x131x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE33x65x98x131x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Current17x$25.02—
Cheap19x$28.51+14%
Forward21x$25.02—
Fair24x$35.09+40%
Expensive35x$52.32+109%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

HCSG has the edge over UNH in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.

UNH PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE10x21x31x42x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE10x21x31x42x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward18x$405—
Cheap19x$325-20%
Fair23x$410+1.2%
Current23x$405—
Expensive30x$526+30%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

UNH's PE is in its fair range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.

HCSG Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly deteriorating
Strong growth
Growth
Improving
Limited
High

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HCSG, with profitability improving.

UNH Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Stable
Improving
Moderate
Low

Analysts expect UNH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

HCSG Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+39%$34.70
Downside-15%$21.27

Calculated from the latest close: $25.02 on Nov 12.

HCSG has a better modeled risk to reward balance than UNH, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

UNH Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+36%$550.65
Downside-15%$346.07

Calculated from the latest close: $405.13 on Nov 12.

UNH trails HCSG on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

HCSG Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.52Q1 2024: $0.56Q2 2024: $0.42Q3 2024: $0.68Q4 2024: $0.53Q1 2025: $0.55Q2 2025: $0.13Q3 2025: $0.53Q4 2025: $0.81Q1 2026: $0.95Q2 2026: $1.71Q3 2026: $1.48Forward: $1.18
Q4 2023: $0.52Q1 2024: $0.56Q2 2024: $0.42Q3 2024: $0.68Q4 2024: $0.53Q1 2025: $0.55Q2 2025: $0.13Q3 2025: $0.53Q4 2025: $0.81Q1 2026: $0.95Q2 2026: $1.71Q3 2026: $1.48Forward: $1.18
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$1.18-20%
Q3 2026$1.48+179%
Q2 2026$1.71+1215%
Q1 2026$0.95+73%
Q4 2025$0.81+53%
Q3 2025$0.53-22%
Q2 2025$0.13-69%
Q1 2025$0.55-1.8%
Q4 2024$0.53+1.9%

HCSG has the edge over UNH on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

UNH Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $23.86Q1 2024: $16.38Q2 2024: $15.10Q3 2024: $15.37Q4 2024: $15.51Q1 2025: $23.89Q2 2025: $23.09Q3 2025: $19.17Q4 2025: $13.23Q1 2026: $13.28Q2 2026: $15.58Q3 2026: $17.55Forward: $22.65
Q4 2023: $23.86Q1 2024: $16.38Q2 2024: $15.10Q3 2024: $15.37Q4 2024: $15.51Q1 2025: $23.89Q2 2025: $23.09Q3 2025: $19.17Q4 2025: $13.23Q1 2026: $13.28Q2 2026: $15.58Q3 2026: $17.55Forward: $22.65
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$22.65+29%
Q3 2026$17.55-8.5%
Q2 2026$15.58-33%
Q1 2026$13.28-44%
Q4 2025$13.23-15%
Q3 2025$19.17+25%
Q2 2025$23.09+53%
Q1 2025$23.89+46%
Q4 2024$15.51-35%

UNH's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $17.55 over the past year, against $23.89 in early 2025.

HCSG Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $424MQ1 2024: $423MQ2 2024: $426MQ3 2024: $428MQ4 2024: $438MQ1 2025: $448MQ2 2025: $458MQ3 2025: $464MQ4 2025: $467MQ1 2026: $463MQ2 2026: $471MQ3 2026: $480M
Q4 2023: $424MQ1 2024: $423MQ2 2024: $426MQ3 2024: $428MQ4 2024: $438MQ1 2025: $448MQ2 2025: $458MQ3 2025: $464MQ4 2025: $467MQ1 2026: $463MQ2 2026: $471MQ3 2026: $480M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$479.6M+3.3%
Q2 2026$470.8M+2.7%
Q1 2026$462.8M+3.4%
Q4 2025$466.7M+6.6%
Q3 2025$464.3M+8.5%
Q2 2025$458.5M+7.6%
Q1 2025$447.7M+5.7%
Q4 2024$437.8M+3.3%

HCSG's revenue has grown year over year for 11 quarters in a row: $480M last quarter, up 3.3% from the same quarter a year ago.

UNH Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $94.4BQ1 2024: $99.8BQ2 2024: $98.9BQ3 2024: $101BQ4 2024: $101BQ1 2025: $110BQ2 2025: $112BQ3 2025: $113BQ4 2025: $113BQ1 2026: $112BQ2 2026: $112BQ3 2026: $113B
Q4 2023: $94.4BQ1 2024: $99.8BQ2 2024: $98.9BQ3 2024: $101BQ4 2024: $101BQ1 2025: $110BQ2 2025: $112BQ3 2025: $113BQ4 2025: $113BQ1 2026: $112BQ2 2026: $112BQ3 2026: $113B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$112.7B-0.4%
Q2 2026$112B+0.4%
Q1 2026$111.7B+2%
Q4 2025$113.2B+12%
Q3 2025$113.2B+12%
Q2 2025$111.6B+13%
Q1 2025$109.6B+9.8%
Q4 2024$100.8B+6.8%

UNH's revenue has held roughly level: $113B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.

HCSG Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $48MQ1 2024: −$28MQ2 2024: $15MQ3 2024: $3MQ4 2024: $35MQ1 2025: $26MQ2 2025: $27MQ3 2025: $70MQ4 2025: $16MQ1 2026: $42MQ2 2026: $20MQ3 2026: $28M
Q4 2023: $48MQ1 2024: −$28MQ2 2024: $15MQ3 2024: $3MQ4 2024: $35MQ1 2025: $26MQ2 2025: $27MQ3 2025: $70MQ4 2025: $16MQ1 2026: $42MQ2 2026: $20MQ3 2026: $28M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$28.1M-60%
Q2 2026$20.2M-26%
Q1 2026$42.3M+64%
Q4 2025$16M-54%
Q3 2025$70M+2302%
Q2 2025$27.4M+83%
Q1 2025$25.8M+$54M
Q4 2024$34.8M-28%

HCSG still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $107M over the past year.

UNH Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$6.2BQ1 2024: $401MQ2 2024: $5.9BQ3 2024: $13BQ4 2024: $1.5BQ1 2025: $4.6BQ2 2025: $6.3BQ3 2025: $5.1BQ4 2025: $160MQ1 2026: $8.1BQ2 2026: $10.3BQ3 2026: $4.3B
Q4 2023: −$6.2BQ1 2024: $401MQ2 2024: $5.9BQ3 2024: $13BQ4 2024: $1.5BQ1 2025: $4.6BQ2 2025: $6.3BQ3 2025: $5.1BQ4 2025: $160MQ1 2026: $8.1BQ2 2026: $10.3BQ3 2026: $4.3B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$4.3B-16%
Q2 2026$10.3B+63%
Q1 2026$8.1B+79%
Q4 2025$160M-89%
Q3 2025$5.1B-61%
Q2 2025$6.3B+6.9%
Q1 2025$4.6B+1037%
Q4 2024$1.5B+$7.6B

UNH has the edge over HCSG on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

HCSG Total Shares

Q4 2023: 74MQ1 2024: 74MQ2 2024: 74MQ3 2024: 74MQ4 2024: 74MQ1 2025: 74MQ2 2025: 73MQ3 2025: 73MQ4 2025: 73MQ1 2026: 71MQ2 2026: 70MQ3 2026: 69M
Q4 2023: 74MQ1 2024: 74MQ2 2024: 74MQ3 2024: 74MQ4 2024: 74MQ1 2025: 74MQ2 2025: 73MQ3 2025: 73MQ4 2025: 73MQ1 2026: 71MQ2 2026: 70MQ3 2026: 69M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.8%-526K shares
1 year-4.9%-3.6M shares
3 years-6.7%-5M shares
5 years-7.6%-5.7M shares
Available history-7%-5.2M shares

HCSG has the edge over UNH on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

UNH Total Shares

Q4 2023: 938MQ1 2024: 922MQ2 2024: 928MQ3 2024: 930MQ4 2024: 929MQ1 2025: 918MQ2 2025: 910MQ3 2025: 908MQ4 2025: 911MQ1 2026: 910MQ2 2026: 906MQ3 2026: 902M
Q4 2023: 938MQ1 2024: 922MQ2 2024: 928MQ3 2024: 930MQ4 2024: 929MQ1 2025: 918MQ2 2025: 910MQ3 2025: 908MQ4 2025: 911MQ1 2026: 910MQ2 2026: 906MQ3 2026: 902M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.4%-4M shares
1 year-0.7%-6M shares
3 years-3.6%-34M shares
5 years-5.5%-53M shares
Available history-6.6%-64M shares

UNH has 902M diluted shares, down 0.7% from a year ago, with $5B in buybacks over the past year.

HCSG Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -0.4xQ1 2024: 0.7xQ2 2024: 0.6xQ3 2024: 0.3xQ4 2024: -0.5xQ1 2025: -0.9xQ2 2025: -2.6xQ3 2025: -1.8xQ4 2025: -1.5xQ1 2026: -1.4xQ2 2026: -0.7xQ3 2026: -0.9x
Q4 2023: -0.4xQ1 2024: 0.7xQ2 2024: 0.6xQ3 2024: 0.3xQ4 2024: -0.5xQ1 2025: -0.9xQ2 2025: -2.6xQ3 2025: -1.8xQ4 2025: -1.5xQ1 2026: -1.4xQ2 2026: -0.7xQ3 2026: -0.9x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-0.9xNet Cash
Q2 2026-0.7xNet Cash
Q1 2026-1.4xNet Cash
Q4 2025-1.5xNet Cash
Q3 2025-1.8xNet Cash
Q2 2025-2.6xNet Cash
Q1 2025-0.9xNet Cash
Q4 2024-0.5xNet Cash

HCSG has the edge over UNH on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

UNH Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 1.0xQ1 2024: 1.3xQ2 2024: 1.4xQ3 2024: 1.3xQ4 2024: 1.4xQ1 2025: 1.3xQ2 2025: 1.5xQ3 2025: 1.7xQ4 2025: 2.3xQ1 2026: 2.2xQ2 2026: 1.7xQ3 2026: 1.7x
Q4 2023: 1.0xQ1 2024: 1.3xQ2 2024: 1.4xQ3 2024: 1.3xQ4 2024: 1.4xQ1 2025: 1.3xQ2 2025: 1.5xQ3 2025: 1.7xQ4 2025: 2.3xQ1 2026: 2.2xQ2 2026: 1.7xQ3 2026: 1.7x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20261.7xHealthy
Q2 20261.7xHealthy
Q1 20262.2xModerate
Q4 20252.3xModerate
Q3 20251.7xHealthy
Q2 20251.5xHealthy
Q1 20251.3xHealthy
Q4 20241.4xHealthy

UNH's net debt is about 1.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.

HCSG Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI61.1Neutral
Stochastic70.5Neutral

HCSG's weekly RSI is 61 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 71 (neutral).

UNH Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI56.4Neutral
Stochastic60.0Neutral

UNH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).

HCSG PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricHCSGSector medianRelative
PE17x26x35% below
PE %62923 pts below

HCSG has the edge over UNH on valuation relative to its sector.

UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricUNHSector medianRelative
PE23x26x11% below
PE %472918 pts above

UNH is trading at 23x earnings, a 11% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.

HCSG Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$22.99.5% above
20 week MA$22.99.4% above
50 week MA$21.317% above
100 week MA$17.543% above
200 week MA$14.771% above

HCSG has the edge over UNH on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

UNH Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$394.22.8% above
20 week MA$400.51.2% above
50 week MA$361.212% above
100 week MA$376.07.8% above
200 week MA$446.69.3% below

UNH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 9.3% below its 200-week average.

HCSG Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$24.3$27.1+11%
2021$27.1$17.2-37%
2022$17.2$12.2-29%
2023$12.2$10.4-15%
2024$10.4$11.5+11%
2025$11.5$19.6+70%
2026 YTD$19.6$25.0+27%

HCSG has the edge over UNH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

UNH Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$296.0$340.8+15%
2021$340.8$495.4+45%
2022$495.4$531.3+7.3%
2023$531.3$526.5-0.9%
2024$526.5$510.0-3.1%
2025$510.0$331.8-35%
2026 YTD$331.8$405.1+22%

UNH has finished three years in a row lower, and it's up 22% so far in 2026.

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