HCC
Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
HCC's fundamentals are strong, but it looks expensive: trading at 19x earnings, more than twice its usual 7.7x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth.
HCC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
HCC's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
HCC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 2.9x | $12.60 | -85% |
| Fair | 7.6x | $33.38 | -60% |
| Forward | 8.6x | $84.25 | — |
| Current | 19x | $84.25 | — |
| Expensive | 45x | $196 | +133% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HCC's PE is in its expensive range at 19x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 8.6x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
HCC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for HCC, with profitability improving.
HCC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $9.79 | +123% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.38 | +554% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.15 | +439% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.61 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.08 | -77% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.67 | -91% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.77 | -90% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.01 | -76% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.79 | -48% |
HCC's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $4.38 over the past year, against $13.17 in late 2022.
HCC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $507.9M | +55% |
| Q2 2026 | $509.7M | +71% |
| Q1 2026 | $458.6M | +53% |
| Q4 2025 | $384M | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $328.6M | +0.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $297.5M | -25% |
| Q1 2025 | $299.9M | -40% |
| Q4 2024 | $297.5M | -18% |
HCC's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $508M last quarter, up 55% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 10% | +3.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +16 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +23 points |
| Q4 2025 | 9% | +10 points |
| Q3 2025 | 6.3% | -5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.6% | -15 points |
| Q1 2025 | -5.8% | -35 points |
| Q4 2024 | -1.4% | -38 points |
HCC's operating margin was 10% last quarter, up 3.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
HCC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $138.9M | +528% |
| Q2 2026 | $103.4M | +$140.8M |
| Q1 2026 | -$91.9M | -$34.3M |
| Q4 2025 | -$18.1M | +$58.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $22.1M | +$75.8M |
| Q2 2025 | -$37.4M | -204% |
| Q1 2025 | -$57.6M | -1422% |
| Q4 2024 | -$76.5M | -219% |
HCC's free cash flow has turned positive again: $132M over the past year, against −$149M the year before.
HCC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +12K shares |
| 1 year | +0.4% | +233K shares |
| 3 years | +1.5% | +772K shares |
| 5 years | +2.5% | +1.3M shares |
| Available history | +2.7% | +1.4M shares |
HCC has 53M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
| Q4 2019 | — |
HCC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
HCC has more cash than debt.
HCC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 44.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 24.2 | Neutral |
HCC's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 24 (neutral).
HCC PE vs Energy Sector
| Metric | HCC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 19x | 13x | 47% above |
| PE % | 69 | 61 | 8 pts above |
HCC is trading at 19x earnings, a 47% premium to the Energy sector's median of 13x.
HCC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $87.8 | 4% below |
| 20 week MA | $89.8 | 6.1% below |
| 50 week MA | $89.3 | 5.7% below |
| 100 week MA | $72.2 | 17% above |
| 200 week MA | $62.6 | 35% above |
HCC has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 35% above its 200-week average.
HCC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $20.8 | $19.9 | -4.4% |
| 2021 | $19.9 | $25.5 | +28% |
| 2022 | $25.5 | $36.2 | +42% |
| 2023 | $36.2 | $61.0 | +68% |
| 2024 | $61.0 | $53.6 | -12% |
| 2025 | $53.6 | $89.2 | +66% |
| 2026 YTD | $89.2 | $84.3 | -5.5% |
HCC has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 5.5% so far in 2026.