HCA
HCA Healthcare, Inc.
HCA offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UNH has the edge over HCA overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
HCA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure |
HCA's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
UNH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
UNH's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
HCA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $366 | -27% |
| Fair | 15x | $437 | -13% |
| Forward | 16x | $501 | — |
| Expensive | 17x | $516 | +3% |
| Current | 17x | $501 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HCA has the edge over UNH in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
UNH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $405 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $325 | -20% |
| Fair | 23x | $410 | +1.2% |
| Current | 23x | $405 | — |
| Expensive | 30x | $526 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UNH's PE is in its fair range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
HCA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect HCA's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
UNH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
UNH has the edge over HCA on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and profitability expectations.
HCA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.61 | +1.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.13 | +16% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.82 | +25% |
| Q1 2026 | $29.03 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $28.33 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.90 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.82 | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.52 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.00 | +16% |
HCA has the edge over UNH on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
UNH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $22.65 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.55 | -8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.58 | -33% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.28 | -44% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.23 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.17 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.09 | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.89 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.51 | -35% |
UNH's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $17.55 over the past year, against $23.89 in early 2025.
HCA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $19.8B | +3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.2B | +8.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.1B | +4.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.5B | +6.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.2B | +9.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $18.6B | +6.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $18.3B | +5.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $18.3B | +5.7% |
HCA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $19.8B last quarter, up 3.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | -0.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 12% | -0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 13% | +1.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | -1.9 points |
HCA has the edge over UNH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
UNH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.7B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $112B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $111.7B | +2% |
| Q4 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $111.6B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $109.6B | +9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.8B | +6.8% |
UNH's revenue has held roughly level: $113B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.1% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.1% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | -7.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8% | -4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.6% | -3.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.3% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.7% | -0.4 points |
UNH's operating margin was 5.8% last quarter, up 2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
HCA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | -0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | -64% |
| Q1 2026 | $895M | +36% |
| Q4 2025 | $870M | -32% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | +35% |
| Q2 2025 | $3B | +340% |
| Q1 2025 | $660M | -51% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | -16% |
HCA still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $6B over the past year.
UNH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.3B | +63% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.1B | +79% |
| Q4 2025 | $160M | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | -61% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.3B | +6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +1037% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | +$7.6B |
UNH has the edge over HCA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HCA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.5% | -5.6M shares |
| 1 year | -8% | -19M shares |
| 3 years | -21% | -58.2M shares |
| 5 years | -33% | -107M shares |
| Available history | -38% | -131M shares |
HCA has the edge over UNH on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3B |
| Q2 2026 | $2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $2.6B |
| Q3 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B |
HCA spent $9.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, about the same as the year before.
UNH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -4M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -3.6% | -34M shares |
| 5 years | -5.5% | -53M shares |
| Available history | -6.6% | -64M shares |
UNH has 902M diluted shares, down 0.7% from a year ago, with $5B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $3B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
UNH spent $5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 52% from the year before.
HCA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.5x | Elevated |
HCA's net debt is about 3.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.4 years a year ago.
UNH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
UNH has the edge over HCA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HCA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 67.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 82.7 | Overbought |
HCA's weekly RSI is 67 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 83 (overbought).
UNH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.0 | Neutral |
UNH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
HCA PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | HCA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17x | 26x | 36% below |
| PE % | 73 | 29 | 44 pts above |
HCA has the edge over UNH on valuation relative to its sector.
UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | UNH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 26x | 11% below |
| PE % | 47 | 29 | 18 pts above |
UNH is trading at 23x earnings, a 11% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
HCA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $463.8 | 8% above |
| 20 week MA | $430.4 | 16% above |
| 50 week MA | $450.3 | 11% above |
| 100 week MA | $411.1 | 22% above |
| 200 week MA | $356.2 | 41% above |
HCA has the edge over UNH on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
UNH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $394.2 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $400.5 | 1.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $361.2 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $376.0 | 7.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $446.6 | 9.3% below |
UNH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 9.3% below its 200-week average.
HCA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $149.3 | $164.2 | +10% |
| 2021 | $164.2 | $252.1 | +53% |
| 2022 | $252.1 | $240.7 | -4.5% |
| 2023 | $240.7 | $270.7 | +12% |
| 2024 | $270.7 | $302.5 | +12% |
| 2025 | $302.5 | $477.1 | +58% |
| 2026 YTD | $477.1 | $500.7 | +4.9% |
HCA has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 4.9% so far in 2026.
UNH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $296.0 | $340.8 | +15% |
| 2021 | $340.8 | $495.4 | +45% |
| 2022 | $495.4 | $531.3 | +7.3% |
| 2023 | $531.3 | $526.5 | -0.9% |
| 2024 | $526.5 | $510.0 | -3.1% |
| 2025 | $510.0 | $331.8 | -35% |
| 2026 YTD | $331.8 | $405.1 | +22% |
UNH has the edge over HCA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.