HCA
HCA Healthcare, Inc.
HCA has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
OSCR
Oscar Health, Inc.
OSCR has the edge over HCA overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
HCA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure |
HCA's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
OSCR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
OSCR's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
HCA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $366 | -27% |
| Fair | 15x | $437 | -13% |
| Forward | 16x | $501 | — |
| Expensive | 17x | $516 | +3% |
| Current | 17x | $501 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HCA's PE is in its expensive range at 17x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 16x.
OSCR PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 12x | $31.94 | — |
| Current | 13x | $31.94 | — |
| Cheap | 21x | $52.73 | +65% |
| Fair | 35x | $87.23 | +173% |
| Expensive | 130x | $322 | +907% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
OSCR has the edge over HCA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
HCA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect HCA's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
OSCR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
OSCR has the edge over HCA on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
HCA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.61 | +1.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.13 | +16% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.82 | +25% |
| Q1 2026 | $29.03 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $28.33 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.90 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.82 | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.52 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.00 | +16% |
HCA has the edge over OSCR on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
OSCR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.61 | +5.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.47 | +$3.47 |
| Q2 2026 | $1.45 | +$2.14 |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.54 | -235% |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.69 | -1790% |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.00 | -$0.92 |
| Q2 2025 | -$0.69 | -$0.54 |
| Q1 2025 | $0.40 | +$0.82 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.10 | +$1.32 |
OSCR has returned to profit: it earned $2.47 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.
HCA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $19.8B | +3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.2B | +8.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.1B | +4.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.5B | +6.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.2B | +9.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $18.6B | +6.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $18.3B | +5.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $18.3B | +5.7% |
HCA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $19.8B last quarter, up 3.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | -0.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 12% | -0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 13% | +1.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | -1.9 points |
HCA has the edge over OSCR on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
OSCR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.1B | +72% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.9B | +70% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.6B | +53% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.8B | +17% |
| Q3 2025 | $3B | +23% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.9B | +29% |
| Q1 2025 | $3B | +42% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.4B | +67% |
OSCR has the edge over HCA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.5% | +7.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 8% | +16 points |
| Q1 2026 | 15% | +5.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | -12% | -5.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | -4.3% | -2.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | -8.1% | -11 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.8% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | -6.2% | +4 points |
OSCR's operating margin was 3.5% last quarter, up 7.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
HCA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | -0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | -64% |
| Q1 2026 | $895M | +36% |
| Q4 2025 | $870M | -32% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | +35% |
| Q2 2025 | $3B | +340% |
| Q1 2025 | $660M | -51% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | -16% |
HCA still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $6B over the past year.
OSCR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$1.2B | -$238.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $2.1B | +316% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.6B | +200% |
| Q4 2025 | $662.8M | +95% |
| Q3 2025 | -$973.7M | -$466M |
| Q2 2025 | $499.8M | +2.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $869.5M | +38% |
| Q4 2024 | $340M | +17% |
OSCR has the edge over HCA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HCA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.5% | -5.6M shares |
| 1 year | -8% | -19M shares |
| 3 years | -21% | -58.2M shares |
| 5 years | -33% | -107M shares |
| Available history | -38% | -131M shares |
HCA has the edge over OSCR on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3B |
| Q2 2026 | $2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $2.6B |
| Q3 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B |
HCA spent $9.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, about the same as the year before.
OSCR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +3.9% | +13M shares |
| 1 year | +34% | +87.2M shares |
| 3 years | +55% | +123M shares |
| 5 years | +66% | +138M shares |
| Available history | +71% | +143M shares |
OSCR has 346M diluted shares, up 34% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | — |
HCA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.5x | Elevated |
HCA's net debt is about 3.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.4 years a year ago.
OSCR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -4.2x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -5.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -110.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -9.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -13.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2024 | -10.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -24.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -217.7x | Net Cash |
OSCR has the edge over HCA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HCA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 67.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 82.7 | Overbought |
HCA's weekly RSI is 67 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 83 (overbought).
OSCR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 58.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 44.9 | Neutral |
OSCR's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 45 (neutral).
HCA PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | HCA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17x | 26x | 36% below |
| PE % | 73 | 29 | 44 pts above |
HCA is trading at 17x earnings, a 36% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
OSCR PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | OSCR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 26x | 50% below |
| PE % | 3 | 35 | 32 pts below |
OSCR has the edge over HCA on valuation relative to its sector.
HCA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $463.8 | 8% above |
| 20 week MA | $430.4 | 16% above |
| 50 week MA | $450.3 | 11% above |
| 100 week MA | $411.1 | 22% above |
| 200 week MA | $356.2 | 41% above |
HCA is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 41% above its 200-week average.
OSCR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $31.2 | 2.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $31.1 | 2.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $22.9 | 39% above |
| 100 week MA | $19.3 | 65% above |
| 200 week MA | $15.5 | 106% above |
OSCR is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 106% above its 200-week average.
HCA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $149.3 | $164.2 | +10% |
| 2021 | $164.2 | $252.1 | +53% |
| 2022 | $252.1 | $240.7 | -4.5% |
| 2023 | $240.7 | $270.7 | +12% |
| 2024 | $270.7 | $302.5 | +12% |
| 2025 | $302.5 | $477.1 | +58% |
| 2026 YTD | $477.1 | $500.7 | +4.9% |
HCA has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 4.9% so far in 2026.
OSCR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | $31.0 | $8.02 | -74% |
| 2022 | $8.02 | $2.21 | -72% |
| 2023 | $2.21 | $9.15 | +314% |
| 2024 | $9.15 | $13.8 | +51% |
| 2025 | $13.8 | $14.9 | +8% |
| 2026 YTD | $14.9 | $31.9 | +114% |
OSCR has the edge over HCA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.