HCA
HCA Healthcare, Inc.
HCA has the edge over NVO overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger fundamentals.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO offers stronger modeled upside, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
HCA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure |
HCA's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
HCA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $366 | -27% |
| Fair | 15x | $437 | -13% |
| Forward | 16x | $501 | — |
| Expensive | 17x | $516 | +3% |
| Current | 17x | $501 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HCA's PE is in its expensive range at 17x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 16x.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO has the edge over HCA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
HCA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect HCA's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
HCA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.61 | +1.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.13 | +16% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.82 | +25% |
| Q1 2026 | $29.03 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $28.33 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.90 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.82 | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.52 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.00 | +16% |
HCA's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $30.13 over the past year, up 16% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO has the edge over HCA on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
HCA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $19.8B | +3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.2B | +8.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.1B | +4.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.5B | +6.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.2B | +9.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $18.6B | +6.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $18.3B | +5.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $18.3B | +5.7% |
HCA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $19.8B last quarter, up 3.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | -0.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 12% | -0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 13% | +1.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | -1.9 points |
HCA's operating margin was 12% last quarter, down 0.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO's revenue is growing: $11.7B last quarter, up 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over HCA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HCA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | -0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | -64% |
| Q1 2026 | $895M | +36% |
| Q4 2025 | $870M | -32% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | +35% |
| Q2 2025 | $3B | +340% |
| Q1 2025 | $660M | -51% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | -16% |
HCA still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $6B over the past year.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO has the edge over HCA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HCA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.5% | -5.6M shares |
| 1 year | -8% | -19M shares |
| 3 years | -21% | -58.2M shares |
| 5 years | -33% | -107M shares |
| Available history | -38% | -131M shares |
HCA has the edge over NVO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3B |
| Q2 2026 | $2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $2.6B |
| Q3 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B |
HCA spent $9.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, about the same as the year before.
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has 4.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
HCA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.5x | Elevated |
HCA's net debt is about 3.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.4 years a year ago.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO has the edge over HCA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HCA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 67.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 82.7 | Overbought |
HCA's weekly RSI is 67 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 83 (overbought).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
HCA PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | HCA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17x | 26x | 36% below |
| PE % | 73 | 29 | 44 pts above |
HCA is trading at 17x earnings, a 36% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO has the edge over HCA on valuation relative to its sector.
HCA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $463.8 | 8% above |
| 20 week MA | $430.4 | 16% above |
| 50 week MA | $450.3 | 11% above |
| 100 week MA | $411.1 | 22% above |
| 200 week MA | $356.2 | 41% above |
HCA has the edge over NVO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
HCA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $149.3 | $164.2 | +10% |
| 2021 | $164.2 | $252.1 | +53% |
| 2022 | $252.1 | $240.7 | -4.5% |
| 2023 | $240.7 | $270.7 | +12% |
| 2024 | $270.7 | $302.5 | +12% |
| 2025 | $302.5 | $477.1 | +58% |
| 2026 YTD | $477.1 | $500.7 | +4.9% |
HCA has the edge over NVO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 22% so far in 2026.