HCA
HCA Healthcare, Inc.
HCA trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over HCA overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
HCA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable | |
| Under pressure |
HCA's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue and cash flow are stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
HCA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $366 | -27% |
| Fair | 15x | $437 | -13% |
| Forward | 16x | $501 | — |
| Expensive | 17x | $516 | +3% |
| Current | 17x | $501 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HCA has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
HCA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Moderate | |
| High |
Analysts expect HCA's earnings to grow, with its revenue and profitability holding steady.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over HCA on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and revenue expectations.
HCA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $30.61 | +1.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.13 | +16% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.82 | +25% |
| Q1 2026 | $29.03 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $28.33 | +29% |
| Q3 2025 | $25.90 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.82 | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $22.52 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $22.00 | +16% |
HCA's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $30.13 over the past year, up 16% from the year before, and higher year over year for 11 quarters in a row.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over HCA on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
HCA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $19.8B | +3.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $20.2B | +8.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.1B | +4.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.5B | +6.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.2B | +9.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $18.6B | +6.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $18.3B | +5.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $18.3B | +5.7% |
HCA's revenue has grown year over year for 16 quarters in a row: $19.8B last quarter, up 3.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 12% | -0.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | -0.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 12% | -0.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 14% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 13% | +1.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 13% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 13% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 12% | -1.9 points |
HCA's operating margin was 12% last quarter, down 0.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over HCA on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over HCA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
HCA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | -0.8% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | -64% |
| Q1 2026 | $895M | +36% |
| Q4 2025 | $870M | -32% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.1B | +35% |
| Q2 2025 | $3B | +340% |
| Q1 2025 | $660M | -51% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.3B | -16% |
HCA still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $6B over the past year.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over HCA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
HCA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -2.5% | -5.6M shares |
| 1 year | -8% | -19M shares |
| 3 years | -21% | -58.2M shares |
| 5 years | -33% | -107M shares |
| Available history | -38% | -131M shares |
HCA has the edge over LLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3B |
| Q2 2026 | $2.1B |
| Q1 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q4 2025 | $2.6B |
| Q3 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $1.7B |
HCA spent $9.2B buying back its own shares over the past year, about the same as the year before.
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has 893M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
HCA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 3.6x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 3.5x | Elevated |
HCA's net debt is about 3.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 3.4 years a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY has the edge over HCA on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
HCA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 67.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 82.7 | Overbought |
HCA's weekly RSI is 67 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 83 (overbought).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
HCA PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | HCA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 17x | 26x | 36% below |
| PE % | 73 | 29 | 44 pts above |
HCA has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
HCA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $463.8 | 8% above |
| 20 week MA | $430.4 | 16% above |
| 50 week MA | $450.3 | 11% above |
| 100 week MA | $411.1 | 22% above |
| 200 week MA | $356.2 | 41% above |
HCA is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 41% above its 200-week average.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
HCA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $149.3 | $164.2 | +10% |
| 2021 | $164.2 | $252.1 | +53% |
| 2022 | $252.1 | $240.7 | -4.5% |
| 2023 | $240.7 | $270.7 | +12% |
| 2024 | $270.7 | $302.5 | +12% |
| 2025 | $302.5 | $477.1 | +58% |
| 2026 YTD | $477.1 | $500.7 | +4.9% |
HCA has finished higher in five of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 4.9% so far in 2026.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over HCA on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.