HBNC
Horizon Bancorp, Inc.
HBNC's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over HBNC overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
HBNC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Unavailable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
HBNC's profitability is currently strong. There isn't enough data to rate its revenue. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like HBNC.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
HBNC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.8x | $13.59 | -36% |
| Forward | 9.6x | $21.19 | — |
| Fair | 10x | $20.01 | -5.6% |
| Current | 11x | $21.19 | — |
| Expensive | 19x | $38.49 | +82% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
HBNC's PE is in its fair range at 11x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 9.6x next year's earnings.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over HBNC in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
HBNC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for HBNC, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
HBNC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.20 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.17 | +172% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.02 | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.80 | +25% |
| Q3 2024 | $0.47 | -72% |
| Q2 2024 | $0.43 | -77% |
| Q1 2024 | $0.54 | -73% |
| Q4 2023 | $0.64 | -70% |
| Q3 2023 | $1.70 | -21% |
HBNC has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 326% for HBNC versus MS up 29%.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
HBNC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $75.5M | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $73.5M | +6.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $74.9M | +210% |
| Q2 2025 | $66.3M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $68.8M | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $24.2M | +11% |
| Q3 2024 | $58.4M | +8.3% |
| Q2 2024 | $55.8M | -2.4% |
HBNC has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is up 16% for HBNC versus up 12% for MS.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 44% | N/A |
| Q2 2026 | 41% | +3.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 44% | +3.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 44% | +134 points |
| Q2 2025 | 37% | +8.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 41% | +12 points |
| Q4 2024 | -91% | -4.5 points |
| Q3 2024 | 31% | -1.4 points |
HBNC has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
HBNC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $31.3M | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.7M | +47% |
| Q4 2025 | $32.6M | +$82.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $18.1M | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.1M | +163% |
| Q4 2024 | -$50.2M | -468% |
| Q3 2024 | $31M | +8.1% |
| Q2 2024 | $15.1M | +7.1% |
HBNC has the stronger cash trend. Its trailing FCF is up 52% versus its history, compared with MS at down 492%.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HBNC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +53.7K shares |
| 1 year | +17% | +7.3M shares |
| 3 years | +17% | +7.6M shares |
| 5 years | +16% | +7.2M shares |
| Available history | +14% | +6.3M shares |
HBNC has 51M diluted shares, up 17% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2022 | — |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over HBNC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
HBNC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | 24.9x | High |
| Q3 2024 | -5.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2024 | -3.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2024 | -6.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2023 | 16.6x | High |
HBNC has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
HBNC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 66.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 76.2 | Neutral |
HBNC's weekly RSI is 67 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 76 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
HBNC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | HBNC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 13x | 19% below |
| PE % | 60 | 63 | 3 pts below |
HBNC has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
HBNC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $20.1 | 5.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $20.0 | 6% above |
| 50 week MA | $18.7 | 14% above |
| 100 week MA | $17.2 | 23% above |
| 200 week MA | $15.0 | 41% above |
HBNC has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
HBNC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $19.0 | $15.6 | -18% |
| 2021 | $15.6 | $20.7 | +33% |
| 2022 | $20.7 | $15.2 | -26% |
| 2023 | $15.2 | $14.3 | -6% |
| 2024 | $14.3 | $16.1 | +12% |
| 2025 | $16.1 | $17.5 | +8.5% |
| 2026 YTD | $17.5 | $21.2 | +21% |
HBNC has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.