GRFS

Grifols, S.A.

55
Fundamentals59/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential55/ 100
Risk potential16/ 100

GRFS trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

78
Fundamentals85/ 100
Valuation62/ 100
Upside potential72/ 100
Risk potential15/ 100

LLY has the edge over GRFS overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.

GRFS Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Strong
Stable
Weak

GRFS's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue and cash flow are stable, but its balance sheet is weak.

LLY Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Strong
Healthy

LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.

GRFS PE Valuation

GRFS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

LLY PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE37x74x111x147x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE37x74x111x147x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap27x$845-41%
Forward30x$1,427—
Current46x$1,427—
Fair48x$1,466+2.7%
Expensive85x$2,612+83%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.

GRFS Forward outlook

There aren't enough analyst estimates for GRFS to show an outlook.

LLY Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.

GRFS Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+20%$10.56
Downside-16%$7.37

Calculated from the latest close: $8.80 on Nov 12.

GRFS trails LLY on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

LLY Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+39%$1,988.49
Downside-15%$1,209.08

Calculated from the latest close: $1,427.28 on Nov 12.

LLY has a better modeled risk to reward balance than GRFS, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

GRFS Earnings Per Share

Q3 2023: $0.18Q4 2023: $0.23Q1 2024: $0.29Q2 2024: $0.24Q3 2024: $0.23Q4 2024: $0.25Q1 2025: $0.32Q2 2025: $0.48Q3 2025: $0.61Q4 2025: $0.65Q1 2026: $0.68Q2 2026: $0.74
Q3 2023: $0.18Q4 2023: $0.23Q1 2024: $0.29Q2 2024: $0.24Q3 2024: $0.23Q4 2024: $0.25Q1 2025: $0.32Q2 2025: $0.48Q3 2025: $0.61Q4 2025: $0.65Q1 2026: $0.68Q2 2026: $0.74
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q2 2026$0.74+54%
Q1 2026$0.68+113%
Q4 2025$0.65+160%
Q3 2025$0.61+165%
Q2 2025$0.48+100%
Q1 2025$0.32+10%
Q4 2024$0.25+8.7%
Q3 2024$0.23+28%

GRFS's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.74 over the past year, against $1.27 in mid-2021.

LLY Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.80Q1 2024: $6.79Q2 2024: $8.12Q3 2024: $9.25Q4 2024: $11.71Q1 2025: $12.29Q2 2025: $15.30Q3 2025: $20.44Q4 2025: $22.95Q1 2026: $28.15Q2 2026: $29.80Q3 2026: $30.81Forward: $46.82
Q4 2023: $5.80Q1 2024: $6.79Q2 2024: $8.12Q3 2024: $9.25Q4 2024: $11.71Q1 2025: $12.29Q2 2025: $15.30Q3 2025: $20.44Q4 2025: $22.95Q1 2026: $28.15Q2 2026: $29.80Q3 2026: $30.81Forward: $46.82
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$46.82+52%
Q3 2026$30.81+51%
Q2 2026$29.80+95%
Q1 2026$28.15+129%
Q4 2025$22.95+96%
Q3 2025$20.44+121%
Q2 2025$15.30+88%
Q1 2025$12.29+81%
Q4 2024$11.71+102%

LLY has the edge over GRFS on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

GRFS Quarterly Revenue

Q3 2023: $1.8BQ4 2023: $2BQ1 2024: $1.8BQ2 2024: $2BQ3 2024: $2BQ4 2024: $2.2BQ1 2025: $2BQ2 2025: $2.1BQ3 2025: $2.1BQ4 2025: $2.2BQ1 2026: $1.9BQ2 2026: $2.1B
Q3 2023: $1.8BQ4 2023: $2BQ1 2024: $1.8BQ2 2024: $2BQ3 2024: $2BQ4 2024: $2.2BQ1 2025: $2BQ2 2025: $2.1BQ3 2025: $2.1BQ4 2025: $2.2BQ1 2026: $1.9BQ2 2026: $2.1B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2026$2.1B-0.9%
Q1 2026$1.9B-3.2%
Q4 2025$2.2B-0.6%
Q3 2025$2.1B+4%
Q2 2025$2.1B+4%
Q1 2025$2B+9.8%
Q4 2024$2.2B+12%
Q3 2024$2B+12%

GRFS's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $2.1B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.

LLY Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $9.4BQ1 2024: $8.8BQ2 2024: $11.3BQ3 2024: $11.4BQ4 2024: $13.5BQ1 2025: $12.7BQ2 2025: $15.6BQ3 2025: $17.6BQ4 2025: $19.3BQ1 2026: $19.8BQ2 2026: $23BQ3 2026: $24.4B
Q4 2023: $9.4BQ1 2024: $8.8BQ2 2024: $11.3BQ3 2024: $11.4BQ4 2024: $13.5BQ1 2025: $12.7BQ2 2025: $15.6BQ3 2025: $17.6BQ4 2025: $19.3BQ1 2026: $19.8BQ2 2026: $23BQ3 2026: $24.4B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$24.4B+39%
Q2 2026$23B+48%
Q1 2026$19.8B+56%
Q4 2025$19.3B+43%
Q3 2025$17.6B+54%
Q2 2025$15.6B+38%
Q1 2025$12.7B+45%
Q4 2024$13.5B+45%

LLY has the edge over GRFS on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

GRFS Free Cash Flow

Q3 2023: $79MQ4 2023: $85MQ1 2024: −$225MQ2 2024: $247MQ3 2024: $239MQ4 2024: $460MQ1 2025: $96MQ2 2025: $106MQ3 2025: $284MQ4 2025: $330MQ1 2026: $65MQ2 2026: $120M
Q3 2023: $79MQ4 2023: $85MQ1 2024: −$225MQ2 2024: $247MQ3 2024: $239MQ4 2024: $460MQ1 2025: $96MQ2 2025: $106MQ3 2025: $284MQ4 2025: $330MQ1 2026: $65MQ2 2026: $120M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q2 2026$120M+14%
Q1 2026$65.5M-32%
Q4 2025$329.6M-28%
Q3 2025$283.7M+19%
Q2 2025$105.6M-57%
Q1 2025$95.9M+$321.4M
Q4 2024$460.5M+444%
Q3 2024$239.2M+203%

GRFS generated $799M in free cash flow over the past year, down 11% from the year before.

LLY Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$1.4BQ1 2024: $180MQ2 2024: $241MQ3 2024: $2.4BQ4 2024: $978MQ1 2025: $156MQ2 2025: $1.4BQ3 2025: $6.7BQ4 2025: $678MQ1 2026: $3BQ2 2026: $7.8BQ3 2026: $8.2B
Q4 2023: −$1.4BQ1 2024: $180MQ2 2024: $241MQ3 2024: $2.4BQ4 2024: $978MQ1 2025: $156MQ2 2025: $1.4BQ3 2025: $6.7BQ4 2025: $678MQ1 2026: $3BQ2 2026: $7.8BQ3 2026: $8.2B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$8.2B+22%
Q2 2026$7.8B+458%
Q1 2026$3B+1826%
Q4 2025$677.9M-31%
Q3 2025$6.7B+186%
Q2 2025$1.4B+476%
Q1 2025$156.1M-13%
Q4 2024$977.8M+$2.4B

LLY has the edge over GRFS on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

GRFS Total Shares

Q3 2023: 679MQ4 2023: 679MQ1 2024: 711MQ2 2024: 742MQ3 2024: 680MQ4 2024: 680MQ1 2025: 680MQ2 2025: 689MQ3 2025: 681MQ4 2025: 681MQ1 2026: 681MQ2 2026: 681M
Q3 2023: 679MQ4 2023: 679MQ1 2024: 711MQ2 2024: 742MQ3 2024: 680MQ4 2024: 680MQ1 2025: 680MQ2 2025: 689MQ3 2025: 681MQ4 2025: 681MQ1 2026: 681MQ2 2026: 681M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%--
1 year-1.2%-8M shares
3 years+0.3%+2M shares
5 years+6.8%+43.2M shares
Available history-0.5%-3.6M shares

GRFS has the edge over LLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

LLY Total Shares

Q4 2023: 903MQ1 2024: 904MQ2 2024: 904MQ3 2024: 905MQ4 2024: 904MQ1 2025: 901MQ2 2025: 900MQ3 2025: 899MQ4 2025: 899MQ1 2026: 896MQ2 2026: 894MQ3 2026: 893M
Q4 2023: 903MQ1 2024: 904MQ2 2024: 904MQ3 2024: 905MQ4 2024: 904MQ1 2025: 901MQ2 2025: 900MQ3 2025: 899MQ4 2025: 899MQ1 2026: 896MQ2 2026: 894MQ3 2026: 893M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%-300K shares
1 year-0.6%-5.4M shares
3 years-0.7%-6.4M shares
5 years-1.9%-17.4M shares
Available history-4.5%-42.3M shares

LLY has 893M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.

GRFS Net Leverage

Q3 2023: 11.1xQ4 2023: 10.2xQ1 2024: 8.9xQ2 2024: 7.2xQ3 2024: 6.5xQ4 2024: 6.3xQ1 2025: 6.2xQ2 2025: 5.0xQ3 2025: 5.6xQ4 2025: 4.7xQ1 2026: 5.4xQ2 2026: 4.6x
Q3 2023: 11.1xQ4 2023: 10.2xQ1 2024: 8.9xQ2 2024: 7.2xQ3 2024: 6.5xQ4 2024: 6.3xQ1 2025: 6.2xQ2 2025: 5.0xQ3 2025: 5.6xQ4 2025: 4.7xQ1 2026: 5.4xQ2 2026: 4.6x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q2 20264.6xHigh
Q1 20265.4xHigh
Q4 20254.7xHigh
Q3 20255.6xHigh
Q2 20255.0xHigh
Q1 20256.2xHigh
Q4 20246.3xHigh
Q3 20246.5xHigh

GRFS's net debt is about 4.6 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 5.0 years a year ago.

LLY Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 2.8xQ1 2024: 2.6xQ2 2024: 2.4xQ3 2024: 2.4xQ4 2024: 2.1xQ1 2025: 2.3xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 1.3xQ4 2025: 1.3xQ1 2026: 1.2xQ2 2026: 1.3xQ3 2026: 1.2x
Q4 2023: 2.8xQ1 2024: 2.6xQ2 2024: 2.4xQ3 2024: 2.4xQ4 2024: 2.1xQ1 2025: 2.3xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 1.3xQ4 2025: 1.3xQ1 2026: 1.2xQ2 2026: 1.3xQ3 2026: 1.2x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20261.2xHealthy
Q2 20261.3xHealthy
Q1 20261.2xHealthy
Q4 20251.3xHealthy
Q3 20251.3xHealthy
Q2 20252.0xHealthy
Q1 20252.3xModerate
Q4 20242.1xModerate

LLY has the edge over GRFS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

GRFS Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI65.4Neutral
Stochastic84.5Overbought

GRFS's weekly RSI is 65 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 85 (overbought).

LLY Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI68.3Neutral
Stochastic84.1Overbought

LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).

GRFS PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricGRFSSector medianRelative
PEN/A26x—

GRFS has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricLLYSector medianRelative
PE46x26x79% above
PE %482919 pts above

LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.

GRFS Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$7.8312% above
20 week MA$7.6914% above
50 week MA$8.158% above
100 week MA$8.365.3% above
200 week MA$8.394.9% above

GRFS has climbed back above all five of its weekly moving averages, and it's now 4.9% above its 200-week average.

LLY Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$1,279.412% above
20 week MA$1,218.817% above
50 week MA$1,102.229% above
100 week MA$954.150% above
200 week MA$797.579% above

LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.

GRFS Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$23.5$18.7-21%
2021$18.7$11.2-40%
2022$11.2$8.12-27%
2023$8.12$11.6+42%
2024$11.6$7.65-34%
2025$7.65$9.10+19%
2026 YTD$9.10$8.80-3.3%

GRFS has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 3.3% so far in 2026.

LLY Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$131.5$166.7+27%
2021$166.7$273.1+64%
2022$273.1$367.9+35%
2023$367.9$582.9+58%
2024$582.9$783.2+34%
2025$783.2$1,077.8+38%
2026 YTD$1,077.8$1,427.3+32%

LLY has the edge over GRFS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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