GRBK

Green Brick Partners, Inc.

41
Fundamentals37/ 100
Valuation33/ 100
Upside potential38/ 100
Risk potential34/ 100

GRBK trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.

RIVN

Rivian Automotive, Inc.

53
Fundamentals56/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential61/ 100
Risk potential31/ 100

RIVN has the edge over GRBK overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.

GRBK Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Under pressure
Healthy
Under pressure
Strong

GRBK's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its revenue and cash flow are under pressure.

RIVN Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Weak
Weak
Unavailable

RIVN's revenue is currently healthy, but its profitability and cash flow are weak. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

GRBK PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE3.2x6.4x9.7x13x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE3.2x6.4x9.7x13x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap6.1x$38.15-37%
Fair8.9x$55.06-9.6%
Current9.8x$60.92—
Expensive10x$64.66+6.1%
Forward11x$60.92—

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

GRBK's PE is in its expensive range at 9.8x. Analysts expect earnings to fall, which would put today's price at 11x next year's earnings.

RIVN PE Valuation

RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

GRBK Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Deteriorating
Decline
Stable
Weakening
Limited
High

Analysts expect GRBK's earnings and profitability to decline, with its revenue holding steady.

RIVN Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Losses shrinking
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

RIVN has the edge over GRBK on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and revenue expectations.

GRBK Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+21%$73.68
Downside-34%$40.15

Calculated from the latest close: $60.92 on Nov 12.

GRBK trails RIVN on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

RIVN Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+49%$19.04
Downside-31%$8.82

Calculated from the latest close: $12.80 on Nov 12.

RIVN has a better modeled risk to reward balance than GRBK, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

GRBK Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $6.14Q1 2024: $6.59Q2 2024: $7.28Q3 2024: $7.70Q4 2024: $8.45Q1 2025: $8.30Q2 2025: $7.83Q3 2025: $7.62Q4 2025: $7.07Q1 2026: $6.79Q2 2026: $6.64Q3 2026: $6.22Forward: $5.30
Q4 2023: $6.14Q1 2024: $6.59Q2 2024: $7.28Q3 2024: $7.70Q4 2024: $8.45Q1 2025: $8.30Q2 2025: $7.83Q3 2025: $7.62Q4 2025: $7.07Q1 2026: $6.79Q2 2026: $6.64Q3 2026: $6.22Forward: $5.30
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$5.30-15%
Q3 2026$6.22-18%
Q2 2026$6.64-15%
Q1 2026$6.79-18%
Q4 2025$7.07-16%
Q3 2025$7.62-1%
Q2 2025$7.83+7.6%
Q1 2025$8.30+26%
Q4 2024$8.45+38%

GRBK has the edge over RIVN on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

RIVN Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-5.74Q1 2024: $-5.77Q2 2024: $-5.96Q3 2024: $-5.60Q4 2024: $-4.69Q1 2025: $-3.69Q2 2025: $-3.20Q3 2025: $-3.08Q4 2025: $-3.07Q1 2026: $-2.92Q2 2026: $-2.58Q3 2026: $-2.25
Q4 2023: $-5.74Q1 2024: $-5.77Q2 2024: $-5.96Q3 2024: $-5.60Q4 2024: $-4.69Q1 2025: $-3.69Q2 2025: $-3.20Q3 2025: $-3.08Q4 2025: $-3.07Q1 2026: $-2.92Q2 2026: $-2.58Q3 2026: $-2.25
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026-$2.25+$0.83
Q2 2026-$2.58+$0.62
Q1 2026-$2.92+$0.77
Q4 2025-$3.07+$1.62
Q3 2025-$3.08+$2.52
Q2 2025-$3.20+$2.76
Q1 2025-$3.69+$2.08
Q4 2024-$4.69+$1.05

RIVN is still losing money, but far less than before: $2.25 per share over the past year, against $7.40 at its worst in late 2022.

GRBK Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $450MQ1 2024: $447MQ2 2024: $561MQ3 2024: $524MQ4 2024: $567MQ1 2025: $498MQ2 2025: $549MQ3 2025: $499MQ4 2025: $537MQ1 2026: $465MQ2 2026: $494MQ3 2026: $448M
Q4 2023: $450MQ1 2024: $447MQ2 2024: $561MQ3 2024: $524MQ4 2024: $567MQ1 2025: $498MQ2 2025: $549MQ3 2025: $499MQ4 2025: $537MQ1 2026: $465MQ2 2026: $494MQ3 2026: $448M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$448.2M-10%
Q2 2026$493.8M-10%
Q1 2026$465.5M-6.5%
Q4 2025$536.8M-5.4%
Q3 2025$499.1M-4.7%
Q2 2025$549.1M-2%
Q1 2025$497.6M+11%
Q4 2024$567.3M+26%

GRBK's revenue has slid since its 2024 peak: $448M last quarter, down 10% from the same quarter a year ago.

RIVN Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $1.3BQ1 2024: $1.2BQ2 2024: $1.2BQ3 2024: $874MQ4 2024: $1.7BQ1 2025: $1.2BQ2 2025: $1.3BQ3 2025: $1.6BQ4 2025: $1.3BQ1 2026: $1.4BQ2 2026: $1.7BQ3 2026: $2.2B
Q4 2023: $1.3BQ1 2024: $1.2BQ2 2024: $1.2BQ3 2024: $874MQ4 2024: $1.7BQ1 2025: $1.2BQ2 2025: $1.3BQ3 2025: $1.6BQ4 2025: $1.3BQ1 2026: $1.4BQ2 2026: $1.7BQ3 2026: $2.2B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$2.2B+38%
Q2 2026$1.7B+27%
Q1 2026$1.4B+11%
Q4 2025$1.3B-26%
Q3 2025$1.6B+78%
Q2 2025$1.3B+13%
Q1 2025$1.2B+3%
Q4 2024$1.7B+32%

RIVN has the edge over GRBK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

GRBK Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$22MQ1 2024: $75,000Q2 2024: $780,000Q3 2024: −$7MQ4 2024: $28MQ1 2025: $68MQ2 2025: $74MQ3 2025: −$12MQ4 2025: $78MQ1 2026: $55MQ2 2026: −$10MQ3 2026: −$54M
Q4 2023: −$22MQ1 2024: $75,000Q2 2024: $780,000Q3 2024: −$7MQ4 2024: $28MQ1 2025: $68MQ2 2025: $74MQ3 2025: −$12MQ4 2025: $78MQ1 2026: $55MQ2 2026: −$10MQ3 2026: −$54M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$53.7M-$41.7M
Q2 2026-$9.8M-113%
Q1 2026$55M-19%
Q4 2025$78.4M+180%
Q3 2025-$12M-$4.7M
Q2 2025$74M+9391%
Q1 2025$68M+90612%
Q4 2024$28.1M+$50.4M

GRBK has the edge over RIVN on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

RIVN Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$1.4BQ1 2024: −$1.5BQ2 2024: −$1BQ3 2024: −$1.2BQ4 2024: $856MQ1 2025: −$526MQ2 2025: −$398MQ3 2025: −$421MQ4 2025: −$1.1BQ1 2026: −$1.1BQ2 2026: −$849MQ3 2026: −$1.1B
Q4 2023: −$1.4BQ1 2024: −$1.5BQ2 2024: −$1BQ3 2024: −$1.2BQ4 2024: $856MQ1 2025: −$526MQ2 2025: −$398MQ3 2025: −$421MQ4 2025: −$1.1BQ1 2026: −$1.1BQ2 2026: −$849MQ3 2026: −$1.1B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$1.1B-$703M
Q2 2026-$849M-$451M
Q1 2026-$1.1B-$549M
Q4 2025-$1.1B-234%
Q3 2025-$421M+$732M
Q2 2025-$398M+$639M
Q1 2025-$526M+$997M
Q4 2024$856M+$2.3B

RIVN has burned cash in almost every quarter: −$4.2B over the past year, against −$489M the year before.

GRBK Total Shares

Q4 2023: 46MQ1 2024: 45MQ2 2024: 45MQ3 2024: 45MQ4 2024: 45MQ1 2025: 45MQ2 2025: 44MQ3 2025: 44MQ4 2025: 44MQ1 2026: 43MQ2 2026: 43MQ3 2026: 43M
Q4 2023: 46MQ1 2024: 45MQ2 2024: 45MQ3 2024: 45MQ4 2024: 45MQ1 2025: 45MQ2 2025: 44MQ3 2025: 44MQ4 2025: 44MQ1 2026: 43MQ2 2026: 43MQ3 2026: 43M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.2%-75K shares
1 year-1%-428K shares
3 years-5.7%-2.6M shares
5 years-15%-7.9M shares
Available history-15%-7.4M shares

GRBK has the edge over RIVN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

RIVN Total Shares

Q4 2023: 947MQ1 2024: 978MQ2 2024: 1BQ3 2024: 1BQ4 2024: 1BQ1 2025: 1.1BQ2 2025: 1.2BQ3 2025: 1.2BQ4 2025: 1.2BQ1 2026: 1.2BQ2 2026: 1.3BQ3 2026: 1.4B
Q4 2023: 947MQ1 2024: 978MQ2 2024: 1BQ3 2024: 1BQ4 2024: 1BQ1 2025: 1.1BQ2 2025: 1.2BQ3 2025: 1.2BQ4 2025: 1.2BQ1 2026: 1.2BQ2 2026: 1.3BQ3 2026: 1.4B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+9.1%+121M shares
1 year+19%+226M shares
3 years+52%+494M shares

RIVN has 1.4B diluted shares, up 19% from a year ago.

GRBK Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 0.4xQ1 2024: 0.3xQ2 2024: 0.4xQ3 2024: 0.5xQ4 2024: 0.4xQ1 2025: 0.3xQ2 2025: 0.3xQ3 2025: 0.3xQ4 2025: 0.4xQ1 2026: 0.2xQ2 2026: 0.3xQ3 2026: 0.2x
Q4 2023: 0.4xQ1 2024: 0.3xQ2 2024: 0.4xQ3 2024: 0.5xQ4 2024: 0.4xQ1 2025: 0.3xQ2 2025: 0.3xQ3 2025: 0.3xQ4 2025: 0.4xQ1 2026: 0.2xQ2 2026: 0.3xQ3 2026: 0.2x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20260.2xVery low
Q2 20260.3xVery low
Q1 20260.2xVery low
Q4 20250.4xVery low
Q3 20250.3xVery low
Q2 20250.3xVery low
Q1 20250.3xVery low
Q4 20240.4xVery low

GRBK's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).

RIVN Net Leverage

RIVN's operating earnings (EBITDA) were negative over the past year, so its debt can't be measured against them.

GRBK Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI41.0Neutral
Stochastic19.7Oversold

GRBK's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).

RIVN Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI41.5Neutral
Stochastic25.6Neutral

RIVN's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).

GRBK PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricGRBKSector medianRelative
PE9.8x18x46% below
PE %744727 pts above

GRBK is trading at 9.8x earnings, a 46% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.

RIVN PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

RIVN has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

GRBK Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$63.84.5% below
20 week MA$68.711% below
50 week MA$68.912% below
100 week MA$65.87.4% below
200 week MA$59.81.8% above

GRBK has the edge over RIVN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

RIVN Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$13.33.9% below
20 week MA$15.115% below
50 week MA$15.919% below
100 week MA$14.713% below
200 week MA$15.115% below

RIVN is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 15% below its 200-week average.

GRBK Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$11.4$24.3+113%
2021$24.3$29.9+23%
2022$29.9$24.3-19%
2023$24.3$51.9+114%
2024$51.9$56.4+8.7%
2025$56.4$63.8+13%
2026 YTD$63.8$60.9-4.5%

GRBK has the edge over RIVN on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

RIVN Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2021$130.0$96.8-25%
2022$96.8$19.1-80%
2023$19.1$23.5+23%
2024$23.5$13.7-42%
2025$13.7$20.9+53%
2026 YTD$20.9$12.8-39%

RIVN has finished lower in three of the last five years. It's down 39% so far in 2026.

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