GILD

Gilead Sciences, Inc.

55
Fundamentals52/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential55/ 100
Risk potential15/ 100

GILD's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

LLY

Eli Lilly and Company

78
Fundamentals85/ 100
Valuation62/ 100
Upside potential72/ 100
Risk potential15/ 100

LLY has the edge over GILD overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.

GILD Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Weak
Strong
Healthy

GILD's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability is weak.

LLY Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Strong
Healthy

LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.

GILD PE Valuation

GILD has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year. If it returns to profit as analysts expect, today's price would be 20x next year's earnings.

LLY PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE37x74x111x147x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE37x74x111x147x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap27x$845-41%
Forward30x$1,427—
Current46x$1,427—
Fair48x$1,466+2.7%
Expensive85x$2,612+83%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.

GILD Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Returning to profit
Growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Low

Analysts expect GILD to return to profit, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

LLY Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.

GILD Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+19%$199.36
Downside-15%$142.40

Calculated from the latest close: $167.95 on Nov 12.

GILD trails LLY on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

LLY Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+39%$1,988.49
Downside-15%$1,209.08

Calculated from the latest close: $1,427.28 on Nov 12.

LLY has a better modeled risk to reward balance than GILD, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

GILD Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $4.50Q1 2024: $0.36Q2 2024: $0.82Q3 2024: $0.09Q4 2024: $0.38Q1 2025: $4.76Q2 2025: $5.03Q3 2025: $6.46Q4 2025: $6.78Q1 2026: $7.35Q2 2026: $-2.66Q3 2026: $-3.15Forward: $8.55
Q4 2023: $4.50Q1 2024: $0.36Q2 2024: $0.82Q3 2024: $0.09Q4 2024: $0.38Q1 2025: $4.76Q2 2025: $5.03Q3 2025: $6.46Q4 2025: $6.78Q1 2026: $7.35Q2 2026: $-2.66Q3 2026: $-3.15Forward: $8.55
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$8.55—
Q3 2026-$3.15-149%
Q2 2026-$2.66-153%
Q1 2026$7.35+54%
Q4 2025$6.78+1684%
Q3 2025$6.46+7078%
Q2 2025$5.03+513%
Q1 2025$4.76+1222%
Q4 2024$0.38-92%

GILD has swung to a loss: it lost $3.15 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.

LLY Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.80Q1 2024: $6.79Q2 2024: $8.12Q3 2024: $9.25Q4 2024: $11.71Q1 2025: $12.29Q2 2025: $15.30Q3 2025: $20.44Q4 2025: $22.95Q1 2026: $28.15Q2 2026: $29.80Q3 2026: $30.81Forward: $46.82
Q4 2023: $5.80Q1 2024: $6.79Q2 2024: $8.12Q3 2024: $9.25Q4 2024: $11.71Q1 2025: $12.29Q2 2025: $15.30Q3 2025: $20.44Q4 2025: $22.95Q1 2026: $28.15Q2 2026: $29.80Q3 2026: $30.81Forward: $46.82
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$46.82+52%
Q3 2026$30.81+51%
Q2 2026$29.80+95%
Q1 2026$28.15+129%
Q4 2025$22.95+96%
Q3 2025$20.44+121%
Q2 2025$15.30+88%
Q1 2025$12.29+81%
Q4 2024$11.71+102%

LLY has the edge over GILD on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

GILD Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $7.1BQ1 2024: $6.7BQ2 2024: $7BQ3 2024: $7.5BQ4 2024: $7.6BQ1 2025: $6.7BQ2 2025: $7.1BQ3 2025: $7.8BQ4 2025: $7.9BQ1 2026: $7BQ2 2026: $7.8BQ3 2026: $8.3B
Q4 2023: $7.1BQ1 2024: $6.7BQ2 2024: $7BQ3 2024: $7.5BQ4 2024: $7.6BQ1 2025: $6.7BQ2 2025: $7.1BQ3 2025: $7.8BQ4 2025: $7.9BQ1 2026: $7BQ2 2026: $7.8BQ3 2026: $8.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$8.3B+6.8%
Q2 2026$7.8B+10%
Q1 2026$7B+4.4%
Q4 2025$7.9B+4.7%
Q3 2025$7.8B+3%
Q2 2025$7.1B+1.8%
Q1 2025$6.7B-0.3%
Q4 2024$7.6B+6.4%

GILD's revenue has grown year over year for six quarters in a row: $8.3B last quarter, up 6.8% from the same quarter a year ago.

LLY Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $9.4BQ1 2024: $8.8BQ2 2024: $11.3BQ3 2024: $11.4BQ4 2024: $13.5BQ1 2025: $12.7BQ2 2025: $15.6BQ3 2025: $17.6BQ4 2025: $19.3BQ1 2026: $19.8BQ2 2026: $23BQ3 2026: $24.4B
Q4 2023: $9.4BQ1 2024: $8.8BQ2 2024: $11.3BQ3 2024: $11.4BQ4 2024: $13.5BQ1 2025: $12.7BQ2 2025: $15.6BQ3 2025: $17.6BQ4 2025: $19.3BQ1 2026: $19.8BQ2 2026: $23BQ3 2026: $24.4B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$24.4B+39%
Q2 2026$23B+48%
Q1 2026$19.8B+56%
Q4 2025$19.3B+43%
Q3 2025$17.6B+54%
Q2 2025$15.6B+38%
Q1 2025$12.7B+45%
Q4 2024$13.5B+45%

LLY has the edge over GILD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

GILD Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $2BQ1 2024: $2.1BQ2 2024: $1.2BQ3 2024: $4.2BQ4 2024: $2.8BQ1 2025: $1.7BQ2 2025: $720MQ3 2025: $4BQ4 2025: $3.1BQ1 2026: $2.4BQ2 2026: $3.4BQ3 2026: $4.8B
Q4 2023: $2BQ1 2024: $2.1BQ2 2024: $1.2BQ3 2024: $4.2BQ4 2024: $2.8BQ1 2025: $1.7BQ2 2025: $720MQ3 2025: $4BQ4 2025: $3.1BQ1 2026: $2.4BQ2 2026: $3.4BQ3 2026: $4.8B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$4.8B+21%
Q2 2026$3.4B+377%
Q1 2026$2.4B+47%
Q4 2025$3.1B+10%
Q3 2025$4B-5%
Q2 2025$720M-40%
Q1 2025$1.7B-22%
Q4 2024$2.8B+45%

GILD's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $13.8B over the past year, up 50% from the year before.

LLY Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$1.4BQ1 2024: $180MQ2 2024: $241MQ3 2024: $2.4BQ4 2024: $978MQ1 2025: $156MQ2 2025: $1.4BQ3 2025: $6.7BQ4 2025: $678MQ1 2026: $3BQ2 2026: $7.8BQ3 2026: $8.2B
Q4 2023: −$1.4BQ1 2024: $180MQ2 2024: $241MQ3 2024: $2.4BQ4 2024: $978MQ1 2025: $156MQ2 2025: $1.4BQ3 2025: $6.7BQ4 2025: $678MQ1 2026: $3BQ2 2026: $7.8BQ3 2026: $8.2B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$8.2B+22%
Q2 2026$7.8B+458%
Q1 2026$3B+1826%
Q4 2025$677.9M-31%
Q3 2025$6.7B+186%
Q2 2025$1.4B+476%
Q1 2025$156.1M-13%
Q4 2024$977.8M+$2.4B

LLY has the edge over GILD on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

GILD Total Shares

Q4 2023: 1.3BQ1 2024: 1.2BQ2 2024: 1.3BQ3 2024: 1.3BQ4 2024: 1.3BQ1 2025: 1.3BQ2 2025: 1.3BQ3 2025: 1.3BQ4 2025: 1.3BQ1 2026: 1.3BQ2 2026: 1.2BQ3 2026: 1.3B
Q4 2023: 1.3BQ1 2024: 1.2BQ2 2024: 1.3BQ3 2024: 1.3BQ4 2024: 1.3BQ1 2025: 1.3BQ2 2025: 1.3BQ3 2025: 1.3BQ4 2025: 1.3BQ1 2026: 1.3BQ2 2026: 1.2BQ3 2026: 1.3B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.6%+8M shares
1 year-0.2%-3M shares
3 years-0.5%-6M shares
5 years-0.9%-11M shares
Available history-2%-26M shares

GILD has 1.3B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.

LLY Total Shares

Q4 2023: 903MQ1 2024: 904MQ2 2024: 904MQ3 2024: 905MQ4 2024: 904MQ1 2025: 901MQ2 2025: 900MQ3 2025: 899MQ4 2025: 899MQ1 2026: 896MQ2 2026: 894MQ3 2026: 893M
Q4 2023: 903MQ1 2024: 904MQ2 2024: 904MQ3 2024: 905MQ4 2024: 904MQ1 2025: 901MQ2 2025: 900MQ3 2025: 899MQ4 2025: 899MQ1 2026: 896MQ2 2026: 894MQ3 2026: 893M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%-300K shares
1 year-0.6%-5.4M shares
3 years-0.7%-6.4M shares
5 years-1.9%-17.4M shares
Available history-4.5%-42.3M shares

LLY has the edge over GILD on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

GILD Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 1.8xQ1 2024: 5.5xQ2 2024: 5.0xQ3 2024: 10.1xQ4 2024: 8.2xQ1 2025: 2.0xQ2 2025: 2.4xQ3 2025: 1.6xQ4 2025: 1.7xQ1 2026: 1.4x
Q4 2023: 1.8xQ1 2024: 5.5xQ2 2024: 5.0xQ3 2024: 10.1xQ4 2024: 8.2xQ1 2025: 2.0xQ2 2025: 2.4xQ3 2025: 1.6xQ4 2025: 1.7xQ1 2026: 1.4x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q1 20261.4xHealthy
Q4 20251.7xHealthy
Q3 20251.6xHealthy
Q2 20252.4xModerate
Q1 20252.0xHealthy
Q4 20248.2xHigh
Q3 202410.1xHigh
Q2 20245.0xHigh

GILD's net debt is about 1.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.0 years a year ago.

LLY Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 2.8xQ1 2024: 2.6xQ2 2024: 2.4xQ3 2024: 2.4xQ4 2024: 2.1xQ1 2025: 2.3xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 1.3xQ4 2025: 1.3xQ1 2026: 1.2xQ2 2026: 1.3xQ3 2026: 1.2x
Q4 2023: 2.8xQ1 2024: 2.6xQ2 2024: 2.4xQ3 2024: 2.4xQ4 2024: 2.1xQ1 2025: 2.3xQ2 2025: 2.0xQ3 2025: 1.3xQ4 2025: 1.3xQ1 2026: 1.2xQ2 2026: 1.3xQ3 2026: 1.2x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20261.2xHealthy
Q2 20261.3xHealthy
Q1 20261.2xHealthy
Q4 20251.3xHealthy
Q3 20251.3xHealthy
Q2 20252.0xHealthy
Q1 20252.3xModerate
Q4 20242.1xModerate

LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.

GILD Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI68.7Neutral
Stochastic83.3Overbought

GILD's weekly RSI is 69 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 83 (overbought).

LLY Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI68.3Neutral
Stochastic84.1Overbought

LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).

GILD PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricGILDSector medianRelative
PEN/A26x—

GILD has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricLLYSector medianRelative
PE46x26x79% above
PE %482919 pts above

LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.

GILD Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$158.16.3% above
20 week MA$146.415% above
50 week MA$138.921% above
100 week MA$124.235% above
200 week MA$101.166% above

GILD is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 66% above its 200-week average.

LLY Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$1,279.412% above
20 week MA$1,218.817% above
50 week MA$1,102.229% above
100 week MA$954.150% above
200 week MA$797.579% above

LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.

GILD Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$66.0$57.1-13%
2021$57.1$72.5+27%
2022$72.5$84.8+17%
2023$84.8$81.0-4.4%
2024$81.0$94.1+16%
2025$94.1$124.7+33%
2026 YTD$124.7$168.0+35%

GILD has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

LLY Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$131.5$166.7+27%
2021$166.7$273.1+64%
2022$273.1$367.9+35%
2023$367.9$582.9+58%
2024$582.9$783.2+34%
2025$783.2$1,077.8+38%
2026 YTD$1,077.8$1,427.3+32%

LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.

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