GENI

Genius Sports Limited

58
Fundamentals71/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential63/ 100
Risk potential38/ 100

GENI offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.

GOOGL

Alphabet Inc.

66
Fundamentals66/ 100
Valuation51/ 100
Upside potential73/ 100
Risk potential13/ 100

GOOGL has the edge over GENI overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger modeled upside.

GENI Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Strong
Under pressure
Weak
Strong

GENI's revenue and balance sheet are currently strong, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.

GOOGL Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Under pressure
Healthy

GOOGL's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its cash flow is under pressure.

GENI PE Valuation

GENI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

GOOGL PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE10x20x30x40x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE10x20x30x40x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Current16x$299—
Cheap20x$378+27%
Forward22x$299—
Fair26x$497+66%
Expensive31x$586+96%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

GOOGL's PE is in its cheap range at 16x, but its recent earnings include one-off gains. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 22x.

GENI Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Losses growing
Strong growth
Weakening
Limited
Low

Analysts expect GENI's losses to grow, with revenue growing. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

GOOGL Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly deteriorating
Strong growth
Strong growth
Weakening
Moderate
Moderate

GOOGL has the edge over GENI on the outlook, with more favorable earnings expectations.

GENI Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+65%$10.07
Downside-38%$3.76

Calculated from the latest close: $6.10 on Nov 12.

GENI trails GOOGL on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

GOOGL Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+36%$405.17
Downside-13%$260.15

Calculated from the latest close: $298.70 on Nov 12.

GOOGL has a better modeled risk to reward balance than GENI, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

GENI Earnings Per Share

Q3 2023: $-0.86Q4 2023: $-0.40Q1 2024: $-0.39Q2 2024: $-0.43Q3 2024: $-0.32Q4 2024: $-0.27Q1 2025: $-0.19Q2 2025: $-0.31Q3 2025: $-0.47Q4 2025: $-0.43Q1 2026: $-0.61Q2 2026: $-0.68
Q3 2023: $-0.86Q4 2023: $-0.40Q1 2024: $-0.39Q2 2024: $-0.43Q3 2024: $-0.32Q4 2024: $-0.27Q1 2025: $-0.19Q2 2025: $-0.31Q3 2025: $-0.47Q4 2025: $-0.43Q1 2026: $-0.61Q2 2026: $-0.68
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q2 2026-$0.68-$0.37
Q1 2026-$0.61-$0.42
Q4 2025-$0.43-$0.16
Q3 2025-$0.47-$0.15
Q2 2025-$0.31+$0.12
Q1 2025-$0.19+$0.20
Q4 2024-$0.27+$0.13
Q3 2024-$0.32+$0.54

GENI is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.68 per share over the past year, against $3.94 at its worst in early 2022.

GOOGL Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.80Q1 2024: $6.52Q2 2024: $6.97Q3 2024: $7.54Q4 2024: $8.04Q1 2025: $8.96Q2 2025: $9.38Q3 2025: $10.13Q4 2025: $10.81Q1 2026: $13.11Q2 2026: $19.91Q3 2026: $19.16Forward: $13.89
Q4 2023: $5.80Q1 2024: $6.52Q2 2024: $6.97Q3 2024: $7.54Q4 2024: $8.04Q1 2025: $8.96Q2 2025: $9.38Q3 2025: $10.13Q4 2025: $10.81Q1 2026: $13.11Q2 2026: $19.91Q3 2026: $19.16Forward: $13.89
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$13.89-28%
Q3 2026$19.16+89%
Q2 2026$19.91+112%
Q1 2026$13.11+46%
Q4 2025$10.81+34%
Q3 2025$10.13+34%
Q2 2025$9.38+35%
Q1 2025$8.96+37%
Q4 2024$8.04+39%

GOOGL has the edge over GENI on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

GENI Quarterly Revenue

Q3 2023: $102MQ4 2023: $127MQ1 2024: $120MQ2 2024: $95MQ3 2024: $120MQ4 2024: $176MQ1 2025: $144MQ2 2025: $119MQ3 2025: $166MQ4 2025: $240MQ1 2026: $188MQ2 2026: $196M
Q3 2023: $102MQ4 2023: $127MQ1 2024: $120MQ2 2024: $95MQ3 2024: $120MQ4 2024: $176MQ1 2025: $144MQ2 2025: $119MQ3 2025: $166MQ4 2025: $240MQ1 2026: $188MQ2 2026: $196M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q2 2026$195.5M+65%
Q1 2026$188M+31%
Q4 2025$240.5M+37%
Q3 2025$166.3M+38%
Q2 2025$118.7M+24%
Q1 2025$144M+20%
Q4 2024$175.5M+38%
Q3 2024$120.2M+18%

GENI has the edge over GOOGL on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

GOOGL Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $86.3BQ1 2024: $80.5BQ2 2024: $84.7BQ3 2024: $88.3BQ4 2024: $96.5BQ1 2025: $90.2BQ2 2025: $96.4BQ3 2025: $102BQ4 2025: $114BQ1 2026: $110BQ2 2026: $120BQ3 2026: $128B
Q4 2023: $86.3BQ1 2024: $80.5BQ2 2024: $84.7BQ3 2024: $88.3BQ4 2024: $96.5BQ1 2025: $90.2BQ2 2025: $96.4BQ3 2025: $102BQ4 2025: $114BQ1 2026: $110BQ2 2026: $120BQ3 2026: $128B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$127.6B+25%
Q2 2026$119.8B+24%
Q1 2026$109.9B+22%
Q4 2025$113.8B+18%
Q3 2025$102.3B+16%
Q2 2025$96.4B+14%
Q1 2025$90.2B+12%
Q4 2024$96.5B+12%

GOOGL's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $128B last quarter, up 25% from the same quarter a year ago.

GENI Free Cash Flow

Q3 2023: $307,000Q4 2023: $11MQ1 2024: −$27MQ2 2024: −$3MQ3 2024: −$23MQ4 2024: $70MQ1 2025: −$48MQ2 2025: −$19MQ3 2025: $19MQ4 2025: $70MQ1 2026: −$68MQ2 2026: −$87M
Q3 2023: $307,000Q4 2023: $11MQ1 2024: −$27MQ2 2024: −$3MQ3 2024: −$23MQ4 2024: $70MQ1 2025: −$48MQ2 2025: −$19MQ3 2025: $19MQ4 2025: $70MQ1 2026: −$68MQ2 2026: −$87M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q2 2026-$87M-$67.8M
Q1 2026-$68.2M-$20M
Q4 2025$69.6M-0.4%
Q3 2025$19.1M+$41.8M
Q2 2025-$19.2M-$16.5M
Q1 2025-$48.3M-$21.3M
Q4 2024$69.9M+559%
Q3 2024-$22.7M-7493%

GENI has burned cash in most quarters: −$66M over the past year, against −$20M the year before.

GOOGL Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $7.9BQ1 2024: $16.8BQ2 2024: $13.5BQ3 2024: $17.6BQ4 2024: $24.8BQ1 2025: $19BQ2 2025: $5.3BQ3 2025: $24.5BQ4 2025: $24.6BQ1 2026: $10.1BQ2 2026: −$5.9BQ3 2026: −$9.1B
Q4 2023: $7.9BQ1 2024: $16.8BQ2 2024: $13.5BQ3 2024: $17.6BQ4 2024: $24.8BQ1 2025: $19BQ2 2025: $5.3BQ3 2025: $24.5BQ4 2025: $24.6BQ1 2026: $10.1BQ2 2026: −$5.9BQ3 2026: −$9.1B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$9.1B-137%
Q2 2026-$5.9B-210%
Q1 2026$10.1B-47%
Q4 2025$24.6B-1.2%
Q3 2025$24.5B+39%
Q2 2025$5.3B-61%
Q1 2025$19B+13%
Q4 2024$24.8B+215%

GOOGL has the edge over GENI on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

GENI Total Shares

Q3 2023: 209MQ4 2023: 227MQ1 2024: 229MQ2 2024: 229MQ3 2024: 234MQ4 2024: 230MQ1 2025: 248MQ2 2025: 253MQ3 2025: 258MQ4 2025: 260MQ1 2026: 269MQ2 2026: 279M
Q3 2023: 209MQ4 2023: 227MQ1 2024: 229MQ2 2024: 229MQ3 2024: 234MQ4 2024: 230MQ1 2025: 248MQ2 2025: 253MQ3 2025: 258MQ4 2025: 260MQ1 2026: 269MQ2 2026: 279M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+3.5%+9.5M shares
1 year+10%+25.7M shares
3 years+34%+70.4M shares
5 years+85%+128M shares
Available history+56%+100M shares

GENI has 279M diluted shares, up 10% from a year ago.

GOOGL Total Shares

Q4 2023: 12.4BQ1 2024: 12.4BQ2 2024: 12.5BQ3 2024: 12.4BQ4 2024: 12.4BQ1 2025: 12.3BQ2 2025: 12.2BQ3 2025: 12.2BQ4 2025: 12.2BQ1 2026: 12.2BQ2 2026: 12.3BQ3 2026: 12.4B
Q4 2023: 12.4BQ1 2024: 12.4BQ2 2024: 12.5BQ3 2024: 12.4BQ4 2024: 12.4BQ1 2025: 12.3BQ2 2025: 12.2BQ3 2025: 12.2BQ4 2025: 12.2BQ1 2026: 12.2BQ2 2026: 12.3BQ3 2026: 12.4B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.5%+59M shares
1 year+1.4%+165M shares
3 years-1.2%-148M shares
5 years-6.8%-907M shares
Available history-10%-1.4B shares

GOOGL has the edge over GENI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

GENI Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -15.2xQ1 2024: -7.5xQ4 2024: -6.3xQ1 2025: -12.5x
Q4 2023: -15.2xQ1 2024: -7.5xQ4 2024: -6.3xQ1 2025: -12.5x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q1 2025-12.5xNet Cash
Q4 2024-6.3xNet Cash
Q1 2024-7.5xNet Cash
Q4 2023-15.2xNet Cash
Q1 20214.3xHigh
Q4 20205.5xHigh
Q3 20209.1xHigh

GENI has more cash than debt.

GOOGL Net Leverage

Q4 2024: -0.1xQ1 2025: -0.1xQ2 2025: 0.1xQ3 2025: 0.0xQ4 2025: 0.1xQ1 2026: 0.3xQ2 2026: 0.3xQ3 2026: 0.4x
Q4 2024: -0.1xQ1 2025: -0.1xQ2 2025: 0.1xQ3 2025: 0.0xQ4 2025: 0.1xQ1 2026: 0.3xQ2 2026: 0.3xQ3 2026: 0.4x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20260.4xVery low
Q2 20260.3xVery low
Q1 20260.3xVery low
Q4 20250.1xVery low
Q3 20250.0xVery low
Q2 20250.1xVery low
Q1 2025-0.1xNet Cash
Q4 2024-0.1xNet Cash

GOOGL's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).

GENI Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.6Neutral
Stochastic23.4Neutral

GENI's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 23 (neutral).

GOOGL Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI40.2Neutral
Stochastic11.7Oversold

GOOGL's weekly RSI is 40 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 12 (oversold).

GENI PE vs Communication Services Sector

GENI has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

GOOGL PE vs Communication Services Sector

MetricGOOGLSector medianRelative
PE16x16x6% below
PE %12625 pts below

GOOGL is trading at 16x earnings, in line with the Communication Services sector's median of 16x, though its recent earnings include one-off gains.

GENI Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$6.282.9% below
20 week MA$6.739.4% below
50 week MA$6.779.9% below
100 week MA$8.6029% below
200 week MA$7.3517% below

GENI is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 17% below its 200-week average.

GOOGL Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$320.46.8% below
20 week MA$336.111% below
50 week MA$334.511% below
100 week MA$267.812% above
200 week MA$204.746% above

GOOGL has the edge over GENI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

GENI Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$9.89$16.6+68%
2021$16.6$7.61-54%
2022$7.61$3.27-57%
2023$3.27$6.18+89%
2024$6.18$8.75+42%
2025$8.75$10.9+24%
2026 YTD$10.9$6.10-44%

GENI is down 44% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in four of the previous six years.

GOOGL Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$67.7$86.7+28%
2021$86.7$146.9+69%
2022$146.9$89.2-39%
2023$89.2$139.7+57%
2024$139.7$192.8+38%
2025$192.8$313.5+63%
2026 YTD$313.5$298.7-4.7%

GOOGL has the edge over GENI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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