GCBC
Greene County Bancorp, Inc.
GCBC offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over GCBC overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and lower modeled downside.
GCBC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
GCBC's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like GCBC.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
GCBC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $28.63 | -20% |
| Fair | 14x | $35.53 | -0.3% |
| Current | 14x | $35.62 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $46.46 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GCBC has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
GCBC Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for GCBC to show an outlook.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
GCBC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.62 | +32% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.41 | +32% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.29 | +37% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.14 | +39% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.98 | +38% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.83 | +26% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.67 | +16% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.54 | -1.9% |
GCBC earned $2.62 per share over the past year, up 32% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over GCBC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
GCBC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.8M | +15% |
| Q2 2026 | $25M | +22% |
| Q1 2026 | $23.9M | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.2M | +24% |
| Q3 2025 | $21.5M | +27% |
| Q2 2025 | $20.5M | +23% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.1M | +28% |
| Q4 2024 | $17.9M | +13% |
GCBC has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 58% | +11 points |
| Q2 2026 | 52% | -1.8 points |
| Q1 2026 | 51% | +6.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 52% | +7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 47% | +7.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 54% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 45% | +5.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 45% | +4.9 points |
GCBC has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
GCBC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $18.8M | +186% |
| Q2 2026 | $18.1M | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.7M | +47% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.2M | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.5M | +228% |
| Q2 2025 | $12.9M | +19% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.3M | +47% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.1M | +180% |
GCBC has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
GCBC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | 0% | -1.3K shares |
| 3 years | 0% | -1.3K shares |
| 5 years | 0% | -1.3K shares |
| Available history | -0.3% | -48.5K shares |
GCBC has 17M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
| Q1 2020 | $593,000 |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over GCBC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
GCBC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -4.1x | Net Cash |
GCBC has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
GCBC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 66.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 66.6 | Neutral |
GCBC's weekly RSI is 66 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 67 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
GCBC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | GCBC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 13x | 4.5% above |
| PE % | 50 | 63 | 13 pts below |
GCBC has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
GCBC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $35.0 | 1.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $34.6 | 2.9% above |
| 50 week MA | $28.4 | 26% above |
| 100 week MA | $26.1 | 36% above |
| 200 week MA | $27.2 | 31% above |
GCBC has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
GCBC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $14.6 | $13.0 | -11% |
| 2021 | $13.0 | $17.3 | +33% |
| 2022 | $17.3 | $32.7 | +89% |
| 2023 | $32.7 | $28.2 | -14% |
| 2024 | $28.2 | $27.9 | -1.1% |
| 2025 | $27.9 | $22.8 | -18% |
| 2026 YTD | $22.8 | $35.6 | +56% |
GCBC has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.