GBLI
Global Indemnity Group, LLC
GBLI offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over GBLI overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
GBLI Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
GBLI's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like GBLI.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
GBLI PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $22.15 | — |
| Cheap | 12x | $25.56 | +15% |
| Fair | 15x | $31.97 | +44% |
| Expensive | 47x | $100 | +352% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GBLI has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
GBLI Forward outlook
There aren't enough analyst estimates for GBLI to show an outlook.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
GBLI Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.14 | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.39 | +21% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.34 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.75 | -44% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.92 | -34% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.98 | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.00 | -19% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.12 | +70% |
GBLI's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $2.14 over the past year, against $4.88 in late 2019.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over GBLI on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
GBLI Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.9M | -1.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $116.1M | +5.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $109.2M | +0.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $116.7M | +7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $114.2M | +2.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $110.5M | +1.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $108.7M | -3.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $108.4M | -0.7% |
GBLI's revenue fell from its 2022 peak and has held roughly level since: $113M last quarter, down 1.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 10% | -3.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +0.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5% | +9.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 7.9% | -3.3 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 12% | +0.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | -4.7% | -17 points |
| Q4 2024 | 11% | +3.2 points |
GBLI's operating margin was 10% last quarter, down 3.8 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over GBLI on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over GBLI on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
GBLI Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $12.1M | +112% |
| Q2 2026 | -$15.8M | -326% |
| Q1 2026 | -$17.9M | -845% |
| Q4 2025 | -$6M | +$7.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $5.7M | -63% |
| Q2 2025 | $7M | -51% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.4M | -89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$13.4M | -319% |
GBLI's free cash flow was −$28M over the past year, against $2M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like GBLI.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS has the edge over GBLI on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
GBLI Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.2% | +32.8K shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +101K shares |
| 3 years | +4.7% | +644K shares |
| 5 years | +0.1% | +13.2K shares |
| Available history | +0.9% | +124K shares |
GBLI has 14M diluted shares, up 0.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | $529,000 |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | — |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | $6.1M |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over GBLI on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
GBLI Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -3.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
GBLI has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
GBLI Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 32.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.2 | Neutral |
GBLI's weekly RSI is 32 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
GBLI PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | GBLI | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 13x | 21% below |
| PE % | 7 | 63 | 56 pts below |
GBLI has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
GBLI Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $23.8 | 6.9% below |
| 20 week MA | $26.1 | 15% below |
| 50 week MA | $27.1 | 18% below |
| 100 week MA | $29.4 | 25% below |
| 200 week MA | $30.6 | 28% below |
GBLI is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 28% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over GBLI on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
GBLI Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.0 | $27.9 | -4% |
| 2021 | $27.9 | $25.1 | -10% |
| 2022 | $25.1 | $23.6 | -5.8% |
| 2023 | $23.6 | $32.2 | +37% |
| 2024 | $32.2 | $35.7 | +11% |
| 2025 | $35.7 | $27.9 | -22% |
| 2026 YTD | $27.9 | $22.2 | -21% |
GBLI has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's down 21% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over GBLI on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.