GAIN
Gladstone Investment Corporation
GAIN offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over GAIN overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
GAIN Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Weak | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
GAIN's profitability is currently healthy, but its revenue is weak. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like GAIN.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
GAIN PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 3.8x | $14.87 | — |
| Cheap | 3.9x | $15.39 | +3.5% |
| Fair | 5.6x | $22.05 | +48% |
| Expensive | 11x | $42.09 | +183% |
| Forward | 16x | $14.87 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GAIN has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
GAIN Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect GAIN's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over GAIN on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and earnings expectations.
GAIN Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $0.93 | -77% |
| Q4 2022 | $1.46 | -54% |
| Q3 2022 | $1.51 | -55% |
| Q2 2022 | $2.02 | -25% |
| Q1 2022 | $3.08 | +141% |
| Q4 2021 | $3.20 | +$3.68 |
| Q3 2021 | $3.35 | +$3.88 |
| Q2 2021 | $2.70 | +$3.09 |
| Q1 2021 | $1.28 | +$1.49 |
GAIN has the stronger earnings trend. Trailing diluted EPS is up 161% for GAIN versus MS up 29%.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $12.60 over the past year, up 29% from the year before, and higher year over year for 10 quarters in a row.
GAIN Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | $15.6M | -69% |
| Q1 2022 | $19.7M | -17% |
| Q4 2021 | $10.7M | -40% |
| Q3 2021 | $31.8M | +257% |
| Q2 2021 | $50M | +1711% |
| Q4 2020 | $17.7M | +14% |
MS has the stronger quarterly revenue trend. Revenue is down 69% for GAIN versus up 12% for MS.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 77% | -17 points |
| Q1 2022 | 85% | -1.6 points |
| Q4 2021 | 97% | +11 points |
| Q3 2021 | 89% | +14 points |
| Q2 2021 | 94% | +93 points |
| Q1 2021 | 86% | N/A |
| Q4 2020 | 86% | +0.3 points |
| Q3 2020 | 74% | N/A |
GAIN's operating margin was 77% last quarter, down 17 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
GAIN Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$134.7M | -$74M |
| Q2 2026 | $8.1M | +$58.2M |
| Q1 2026 | $16.8M | -85% |
| Q4 2025 | -$7.6M | +$164.3M |
| Q3 2025 | -$60.7M | -196% |
| Q2 2025 | -$50.2M | -507% |
| Q1 2025 | $112.7M | +1850% |
| Q4 2024 | -$171.9M | -924% |
GAIN's free cash flow was −$117M over the past year, against −$170M the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like GAIN.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS has the edge over GAIN on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
GAIN Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -- |
| 1 year | +3.6% | +1.4M shares |
| 3 years | +18% | +6M shares |
| 5 years | +20% | +6.6M shares |
| Available history | +21% | +7M shares |
GAIN has 40M diluted shares, up 3.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | — |
| Q1 2022 | $94.4M |
| Q4 2021 | — |
| Q3 2021 | — |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | $57.5M |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over GAIN on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
GAIN Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2022 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q1 2022 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2021 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q3 2021 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q2 2021 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q1 2021 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2019 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
GAIN's net debt is about 3.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 1.6 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like GAIN.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
GAIN Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 20.4 | Neutral |
GAIN's weekly RSI is 42 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
GAIN PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | GAIN | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 3.8x | 13x | 71% below |
| PE % | 14 | 63 | 49 pts below |
GAIN has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
GAIN Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $15.2 | 2% below |
| 20 week MA | $15.8 | 5.8% below |
| 50 week MA | $15.1 | 1.6% below |
| 100 week MA | $14.5 | 2.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $14.1 | 5.8% above |
GAIN has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 5.8% above its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over GAIN on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
GAIN Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $13.5 | $10.1 | -25% |
| 2021 | $10.1 | $16.6 | +64% |
| 2022 | $16.6 | $12.8 | -23% |
| 2023 | $12.8 | $14.2 | +10% |
| 2024 | $14.2 | $13.2 | -7% |
| 2025 | $13.2 | $13.9 | +5.4% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.9 | $14.9 | +7.2% |
GAIN has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.