GABC
German American Bancorp, Inc.
GABC has a slight edge over MS overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
GABC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
GABC's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like GABC.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
GABC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $44.81 | -9.8% |
| Forward | 12x | $49.70 | — |
| Current | 13x | $49.70 | — |
| Fair | 14x | $52.85 | +6.3% |
| Expensive | 15x | $58.58 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
GABC has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
GABC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for GABC, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over GABC on the outlook, with more favorable valuation expectations.
GABC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.10 | +4.9% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.91 | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.82 | +45% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.64 | +46% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.06 | +8.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.87 | +4% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.64 | -5% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.49 | -12% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.83 | -2.7% |
GABC earned $3.91 per share over the past year, up 36% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over GABC on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
GABC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $102.2M | +8.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $100M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $96.1M | +18% |
| Q4 2025 | $96M | +47% |
| Q3 2025 | $94.2M | +51% |
| Q2 2025 | $89.9M | +39% |
| Q1 2025 | $81.4M | +34% |
| Q4 2024 | $65.1M | +6.4% |
GABC has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 48% | +1.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 48% | +4.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 43% | +27 points |
| Q4 2025 | 46% | +1.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 46% | +5.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +2.6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | -22 points |
| Q4 2024 | 44% | +2.4 points |
GABC has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
GABC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $31.4M | -37% |
| Q2 2026 | $55.3M | +111% |
| Q1 2026 | $36M | -1.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $41M | +46% |
| Q3 2025 | $50.1M | +118% |
| Q2 2025 | $26.2M | +54% |
| Q1 2025 | $36.7M | +62% |
| Q4 2024 | $28M | -4.4% |
GABC has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
GABC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | +14.1K shares |
| 1 year | +0.2% | +85.4K shares |
| 3 years | +27% | +8M shares |
| 5 years | +42% | +11M shares |
| Available history | +46% | +11.8M shares |
GABC has 38M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2020 | $1.2M |
| Q1 2020 | $4.5M |
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over GABC on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
GABC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
GABC has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
GABC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 41.5 | Neutral |
GABC's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 41 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
GABC PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | GABC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 13x | 2.4% below |
| PE % | 32 | 63 | 31 pts below |
GABC has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
GABC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $49.6 | 0.3% above |
| 20 week MA | $49.5 | 0.4% above |
| 50 week MA | $45.2 | 10% above |
| 100 week MA | $42.1 | 18% above |
| 200 week MA | $37.9 | 31% above |
GABC has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
GABC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $35.7 | $32.4 | -9.1% |
| 2021 | $32.4 | $39.2 | +21% |
| 2022 | $39.2 | $37.3 | -4.8% |
| 2023 | $37.3 | $32.4 | -13% |
| 2024 | $32.4 | $40.6 | +25% |
| 2025 | $40.6 | $40.1 | -1.1% |
| 2026 YTD | $40.1 | $49.7 | +24% |
GABC has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.