FNWB

First Northwest Bancorp

48
Fundamentals65/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential55/ 100
Risk potential17/ 100

FNWB offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.

MS

Morgan Stanley

62
Fundamentals71/ 100
Valuation48/ 100
Upside potential73/ 100
Risk potential11/ 100

MS has the edge over FNWB overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.

FNWB Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Stable
N/A
N/A

FNWB's revenue and profitability are currently stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like FNWB.

MS Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
N/A
N/A

MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.

FNWB PE Valuation

FNWB has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap11x$134-29%
Fair14x$178-5.7%
Forward14x$189—
Current15x$189—
Expensive18x$223+18%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.

FNWB Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Strong growth
Stable
Improving
Limited
High

Analysts expect FNWB's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.

MS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Growth
Growth
Improving
Limited
Moderate

MS has the edge over FNWB on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.

FNWB Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+21%$11.90
Downside-17%$8.17

Calculated from the latest close: $9.84 on Nov 12.

FNWB trails MS on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

MS Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+29%$243.85
Downside-11%$168.44

Calculated from the latest close: $189.17 on Nov 12.

MS has a better modeled risk to reward balance than FNWB, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

FNWB Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.26Q1 2024: $-0.09Q2 2024: $-0.54Q3 2024: $-1.05Q4 2024: $-0.75Q1 2025: $-1.82Q2 2025: $-1.15Q3 2025: $-0.83Q4 2025: $-0.48Q1 2026: $0.55Q2 2026: $0.16Q3 2026: $-0.01Forward: $0.22
Q4 2023: $0.26Q1 2024: $-0.09Q2 2024: $-0.54Q3 2024: $-1.05Q4 2024: $-0.75Q1 2025: $-1.82Q2 2025: $-1.15Q3 2025: $-0.83Q4 2025: $-0.48Q1 2026: $0.55Q2 2026: $0.16Q3 2026: $-0.01Forward: $0.22
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$0.22—
Q3 2026-$0.01+$0.82
Q2 2026$0.16+$1.31
Q1 2026$0.55+$2.37
Q4 2025-$0.48+$0.27
Q3 2025-$0.83+$0.22
Q2 2025-$1.15-$0.61
Q1 2025-$1.82-$1.73
Q4 2024-$0.75-388%

FNWB is still losing money, but far less than before: $0.01 per share over the past year, against $1.82 at its worst in early 2025.

MS Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$13.39+6.3%
Q3 2026$12.60+29%
Q2 2026$12.37+40%
Q1 2026$11.04+29%
Q4 2025$10.21+28%
Q3 2025$9.76+48%
Q2 2025$8.84+45%
Q1 2025$8.53+55%
Q4 2024$7.95+53%

MS has the edge over FNWB on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

FNWB Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $11MQ1 2024: $16MQ2 2024: $22MQ3 2024: $16MQ4 2024: $15MQ1 2025: $18MQ2 2025: $16MQ3 2025: $17MQ4 2025: $18MQ1 2026: $16MQ2 2026: $16MQ3 2026: $16M
Q4 2023: $11MQ1 2024: $16MQ2 2024: $22MQ3 2024: $16MQ4 2024: $15MQ1 2025: $18MQ2 2025: $16MQ3 2025: $17MQ4 2025: $18MQ1 2026: $16MQ2 2026: $16MQ3 2026: $16M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$16.5M-0.5%
Q2 2026$16.2M-1.1%
Q1 2026$16.4M-6.7%
Q4 2025$18.4M+19%
Q3 2025$16.6M+4.9%
Q2 2025$16.4M-24%
Q1 2025$17.6M+9.4%
Q4 2024$15.4M+37%

FNWB's revenue fell from its 2022 peak and has held roughly level since: $16M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.

MS Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$20.3B+12%
Q2 2026$21.3B+27%
Q1 2026$20.6B+16%
Q4 2025$17.9B+10%
Q3 2025$18.2B+18%
Q2 2025$16.8B+12%
Q1 2025$17.7B+17%
Q4 2024$16.2B+26%

MS has the edge over FNWB on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

FNWB Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $2MQ1 2024: −$5MQ2 2024: $8MQ3 2024: $1MQ4 2024: $12MQ1 2025: −$22MQ2 2025: $4MQ3 2025: $5MQ4 2025: $10MQ1 2026: $885,000Q2 2026: $1MQ3 2026: −$7M
Q4 2023: $2MQ1 2024: −$5MQ2 2024: $8MQ3 2024: $1MQ4 2024: $12MQ1 2025: −$22MQ2 2025: $4MQ3 2025: $5MQ4 2025: $10MQ1 2026: $885,000Q2 2026: $1MQ3 2026: −$7M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$6.8M-245%
Q2 2026$1.5M-62%
Q1 2026$885K+$22.6M
Q4 2025$10.3M-18%
Q3 2025$4.7M+309%
Q2 2025$4M-51%
Q1 2025-$21.7M-$16.8M
Q4 2024$12.5M+501%

FNWB has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

MS Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: −$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: −$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: −$3.3BQ4 2025: −$2.4BQ1 2026: −$7.1BQ2 2026: −$2.7BQ3 2026: −$46B
Q4 2023: −$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: −$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: −$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: −$3.3BQ4 2025: −$2.4BQ1 2026: −$7.1BQ2 2026: −$2.7BQ3 2026: −$46B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$46B-$42.7B
Q2 2026-$2.7B-123%
Q1 2026-$7.1B+$16.9B
Q4 2025-$2.4B-120%
Q3 2025-$3.3B+$14B
Q2 2025$11.8B+368%
Q1 2025-$24B-650%
Q4 2024$11.8B+$29.6B

MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

FNWB Total Shares

Q4 2023: 9MQ1 2024: 9MQ2 2024: 9MQ3 2024: 9MQ4 2024: 9MQ1 2025: 9MQ2 2025: 9MQ3 2025: 9MQ4 2025: 9MQ1 2026: 9MQ2 2026: 9MQ3 2026: 9M
Q4 2023: 9MQ1 2024: 9MQ2 2024: 9MQ3 2024: 9MQ4 2024: 9MQ1 2025: 9MQ2 2025: 9MQ3 2025: 9MQ4 2025: 9MQ1 2026: 9MQ2 2026: 9MQ3 2026: 9M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.3%-26.8K shares
1 year+1%+90.2K shares
3 years-0.3%-31.1K shares
5 years-3.9%-364K shares
Available history-10%-1M shares

FNWB has 9M diluted shares, up 1% from a year ago.

MS Total Shares

Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.2%-3M shares
1 year-1.5%-24M shares
3 years-4.7%-77M shares
5 years-14%-246M shares
Available history-4.5%-74M shares

MS has the edge over FNWB on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

FNWB Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 6.1xQ1 2024: -18.4xQ1 2026: -2.9xQ2 2026: -7.4xQ3 2026: -31.1x
Q4 2023: 6.1xQ1 2024: -18.4xQ1 2026: -2.9xQ2 2026: -7.4xQ3 2026: -31.1x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-31.1xNet Cash
Q2 2026-7.4xNet Cash
Q1 2026-2.9xNet Cash
Q1 2024-18.4xNet Cash
Q4 20236.1xHigh
Q3 2023-1.1xNet Cash
Q2 2023-1.0xNet Cash
Q1 2023-0.9xNet Cash

FNWB has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

MS Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20267.8xHigh
Q2 20267.3xHigh
Q1 20268.2xHigh
Q4 20258.6xHigh
Q3 20258.4xHigh
Q2 20258.7xHigh
Q1 20258.7xHigh
Q4 20247.9xHigh

MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

FNWB Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.0Neutral
Stochastic20.8Neutral

FNWB's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 21 (neutral).

MS Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.0Neutral
Stochastic18.7Oversold

MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).

FNWB PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricFNWBSector medianRelative
PE64x13x391% above
PE %976334 pts above

FNWB has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MS PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricMSSector medianRelative
PE15x13x15% above
PE %59634 pts below

MS has the edge over FNWB on valuation relative to its sector.

FNWB Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$9.880.4% below
20 week MA$10.77.9% below
50 week MA$10.23.1% below
100 week MA$9.661.9% above
200 week MA$11.011% below

FNWB's trend is mixed: it's above one of its five weekly moving averages, and 11% below its 200-week average.

MS Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$186.51.5% above
20 week MA$203.36.9% below
50 week MA$191.91.4% below
100 week MA$164.915% above
200 week MA$129.346% above

MS has the edge over FNWB on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

FNWB Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$18.0$15.7-13%
2021$15.7$20.1+28%
2022$20.1$14.5-28%
2023$14.5$15.9+9.6%
2024$15.9$10.2-36%
2025$10.2$9.72-4.6%
2026 YTD$9.72$9.84+1.2%

FNWB has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's up 1.2% so far in 2026.

MS Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$51.1$68.1+33%
2021$68.1$99.3+46%
2022$99.3$86.1-13%
2023$86.1$93.3+8.3%
2024$93.3$126.8+36%
2025$126.8$181.9+43%
2026 YTD$181.9$189.2+4%

MS has the edge over FNWB on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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