FMBH

First Mid Bancshares, Inc.

57
Fundamentals70/ 100
Valuation43/ 100
Upside potential65/ 100
Risk potential12/ 100

FMBH's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

MS

Morgan Stanley

62
Fundamentals71/ 100
Valuation48/ 100
Upside potential73/ 100
Risk potential11/ 100

MS has the edge over FMBH overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.

FMBH Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
N/A
N/A

FMBH's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like FMBH.

MS Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
N/A
N/A

MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.

FMBH PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE4.9x9.8x15x20x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE4.9x9.8x15x20x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap9.2x$39.79-22%
Fair11x$46.53-9.1%
Forward11x$51.19—
Current12x$51.19—
Expensive13x$56.93+11%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

FMBH has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.

MS PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE5.5x11x17x22x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap11x$134-29%
Fair14x$178-5.7%
Forward14x$189—
Current15x$189—
Expensive18x$223+18%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.

FMBH Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Growth
Growth
Stable
Limited
Moderate

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for FMBH, with profitability holding steady.

MS Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Growth
Growth
Improving
Limited
Moderate

MS has the edge over FMBH on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.

FMBH Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+22%$62.42
Downside-12%$45.24

Calculated from the latest close: $51.19 on Nov 12.

FMBH trails MS on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

MS Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+29%$243.85
Downside-11%$168.44

Calculated from the latest close: $189.17 on Nov 12.

MS has a better modeled risk to reward balance than FMBH, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

FMBH Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $3.15Q1 2024: $3.08Q2 2024: $3.10Q3 2024: $3.23Q4 2024: $3.30Q1 2025: $3.37Q2 2025: $3.53Q3 2025: $3.66Q4 2025: $3.83Q1 2026: $3.96Q2 2026: $4.02Q3 2026: $4.33Forward: $4.75
Q4 2023: $3.15Q1 2024: $3.08Q2 2024: $3.10Q3 2024: $3.23Q4 2024: $3.30Q1 2025: $3.37Q2 2025: $3.53Q3 2025: $3.66Q4 2025: $3.83Q1 2026: $3.96Q2 2026: $4.02Q3 2026: $4.33Forward: $4.75
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$4.75+9.6%
Q3 2026$4.33+18%
Q2 2026$4.02+14%
Q1 2026$3.96+18%
Q4 2025$3.83+16%
Q3 2025$3.66+13%
Q2 2025$3.53+14%
Q1 2025$3.37+9.4%
Q4 2024$3.30+4.8%

FMBH's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $4.33 over the past year, up 18% from the year before, and higher year over year for eight quarters in a row.

MS Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
Q4 2023: $5.18Q1 2024: $5.50Q2 2024: $6.08Q3 2024: $6.58Q4 2024: $7.95Q1 2025: $8.53Q2 2025: $8.84Q3 2025: $9.76Q4 2025: $10.21Q1 2026: $11.04Q2 2026: $12.37Q3 2026: $12.60Forward: $13.39
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$13.39+6.3%
Q3 2026$12.60+29%
Q2 2026$12.37+40%
Q1 2026$11.04+29%
Q4 2025$10.21+28%
Q3 2025$9.76+48%
Q2 2025$8.84+45%
Q1 2025$8.53+55%
Q4 2024$7.95+53%

MS has the edge over FMBH on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

FMBH Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $79MQ1 2024: $80MQ2 2024: $79MQ3 2024: $81MQ4 2024: $85MQ1 2025: $84MQ2 2025: $87MQ3 2025: $89MQ4 2025: $88MQ1 2026: $97MQ2 2026: $108MQ3 2026: $107M
Q4 2023: $79MQ1 2024: $80MQ2 2024: $79MQ3 2024: $81MQ4 2024: $85MQ1 2025: $84MQ2 2025: $87MQ3 2025: $89MQ4 2025: $88MQ1 2026: $97MQ2 2026: $108MQ3 2026: $107M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$106.6M+19%
Q2 2026$108.5M+24%
Q1 2026$97.2M+15%
Q4 2025$88.2M+3.4%
Q3 2025$89.3M+11%
Q2 2025$87.5M+10%
Q1 2025$84.3M+5.4%
Q4 2024$85.3M+7.7%

FMBH's revenue has grown year over year for 13 quarters in a row: $107M last quarter, up 19% from the same quarter a year ago.

MS Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
Q4 2023: $12.9BQ1 2024: $15.1BQ2 2024: $15BQ3 2024: $15.4BQ4 2024: $16.2BQ1 2025: $17.7BQ2 2025: $16.8BQ3 2025: $18.2BQ4 2025: $17.9BQ1 2026: $20.6BQ2 2026: $21.3BQ3 2026: $20.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$20.3B+12%
Q2 2026$21.3B+27%
Q1 2026$20.6B+16%
Q4 2025$17.9B+10%
Q3 2025$18.2B+18%
Q2 2025$16.8B+12%
Q1 2025$17.7B+17%
Q4 2024$16.2B+26%

MS has the edge over FMBH on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

FMBH Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $28MQ1 2024: $28MQ2 2024: $23MQ3 2024: $32MQ4 2024: $37MQ1 2025: $46MQ2 2025: $6MQ3 2025: $32MQ4 2025: $40MQ1 2026: $23MQ2 2026: $24MQ3 2026: $46M
Q4 2023: $28MQ1 2024: $28MQ2 2024: $23MQ3 2024: $32MQ4 2024: $37MQ1 2025: $46MQ2 2025: $6MQ3 2025: $32MQ4 2025: $40MQ1 2026: $23MQ2 2026: $24MQ3 2026: $46M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$45.8M+43%
Q2 2026$24.2M+305%
Q1 2026$23.1M-50%
Q4 2025$40.2M+8.5%
Q3 2025$31.9M-0.3%
Q2 2025$6M-74%
Q1 2025$46M+67%
Q4 2024$37M+31%

FMBH has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

MS Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: −$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: −$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: −$3.3BQ4 2025: −$2.4BQ1 2026: −$7.1BQ2 2026: −$2.7BQ3 2026: −$46B
Q4 2023: −$17.8BQ1 2024: $4.4BQ2 2024: $2.5BQ3 2024: −$17.3BQ4 2024: $11.8BQ1 2025: −$24BQ2 2025: $11.8BQ3 2025: −$3.3BQ4 2025: −$2.4BQ1 2026: −$7.1BQ2 2026: −$2.7BQ3 2026: −$46B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$46B-$42.7B
Q2 2026-$2.7B-123%
Q1 2026-$7.1B+$16.9B
Q4 2025-$2.4B-120%
Q3 2025-$3.3B+$14B
Q2 2025$11.8B+368%
Q1 2025-$24B-650%
Q4 2024$11.8B+$29.6B

MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

FMBH Total Shares

Q4 2023: 22MQ1 2024: 24MQ2 2024: 24MQ3 2024: 24MQ4 2024: 24MQ1 2025: 24MQ2 2025: 24MQ3 2025: 24MQ4 2025: 24MQ1 2026: 25MQ2 2026: 27MQ3 2026: 27M
Q4 2023: 22MQ1 2024: 24MQ2 2024: 24MQ3 2024: 24MQ4 2024: 24MQ1 2025: 24MQ2 2025: 24MQ3 2025: 24MQ4 2025: 24MQ1 2026: 25MQ2 2026: 27MQ3 2026: 27M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%-3K shares
1 year+11%+2.6M shares
3 years+19%+4.3M shares
5 years+47%+8.5M shares
Available history+59%+9.9M shares

FMBH has 27M diluted shares, up 11% from a year ago.

MS Total Shares

Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
Q4 2023: 1.6BQ1 2024: 1.6BQ2 2024: 1.6BQ3 2024: 1.6BQ4 2024: 1.6BQ1 2025: 1.6BQ2 2025: 1.6BQ3 2025: 1.6BQ4 2025: 1.6BQ1 2026: 1.6BQ2 2026: 1.6BQ3 2026: 1.6B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.2%-3M shares
1 year-1.5%-24M shares
3 years-4.7%-77M shares
5 years-14%-246M shares
Available history-4.5%-74M shares

MS has the edge over FMBH on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

FMBH Net Leverage

QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q1 2020-0.8xNet Cash
Q4 2019-1.2xNet Cash

FMBH has more cash than debt. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like FMBH.

MS Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
Q4 2023: 10.7xQ1 2024: 9.8xQ2 2024: 9.8xQ3 2024: 10.2xQ4 2024: 7.9xQ1 2025: 8.7xQ2 2025: 8.7xQ3 2025: 8.4xQ4 2025: 8.6xQ1 2026: 8.2xQ2 2026: 7.3xQ3 2026: 7.8x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20267.8xHigh
Q2 20267.3xHigh
Q1 20268.2xHigh
Q4 20258.6xHigh
Q3 20258.4xHigh
Q2 20258.7xHigh
Q1 20258.7xHigh
Q4 20247.9xHigh

MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.

FMBH Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI61.6Neutral
Stochastic53.0Neutral

FMBH's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 53 (neutral).

MS Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI45.0Neutral
Stochastic18.7Oversold

MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).

FMBH PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricFMBHSector medianRelative
PE12x13x9.2% below
PE %66633 pts above

FMBH has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.

MS PE vs Financial Services Sector

MetricMSSector medianRelative
PE15x13x15% above
PE %59634 pts below

MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.

FMBH Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$50.12.2% above
20 week MA$50.31.8% above
50 week MA$45.612% above
100 week MA$41.224% above
200 week MA$36.540% above

FMBH has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

MS Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$186.51.5% above
20 week MA$203.36.9% below
50 week MA$191.91.4% below
100 week MA$164.915% above
200 week MA$129.346% above

MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.

FMBH Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$35.3$33.5-5.1%
2021$33.5$42.6+27%
2022$42.6$32.2-24%
2023$32.2$34.7+7.7%
2024$34.7$37.0+6.7%
2025$37.0$40.0+8.1%
2026 YTD$40.0$51.2+28%

FMBH has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

MS Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$51.1$68.1+33%
2021$68.1$99.3+46%
2022$99.3$86.1-13%
2023$86.1$93.3+8.3%
2024$93.3$126.8+36%
2025$126.8$181.9+43%
2026 YTD$181.9$189.2+4%

MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.

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