FMAO
Farmers & Merchants Bancorp, Inc.
FMAO has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
FMAO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
FMAO's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like FMAO.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
FMAO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $33.51 | -9.1% |
| Forward | 11x | $36.88 | — |
| Fair | 12x | $38.45 | +4.3% |
| Current | 12x | $36.88 | — |
| Expensive | 16x | $49.12 | +33% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
FMAO has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
FMAO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for FMAO, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
FMAO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.35 | +7.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $3.11 | +34% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.91 | +35% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.61 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.42 | +27% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.32 | +36% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.16 | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.02 | +27% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.90 | +14% |
FMAO's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $3.11 over the past year, up 34% from the year before, and higher year over year for eight quarters in a row.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over FMAO on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
FMAO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $34.8M | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $34.4M | +16% |
| Q1 2026 | $32.4M | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $32.5M | +21% |
| Q3 2025 | $31.3M | +22% |
| Q2 2025 | $29.6M | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $28.1M | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $26.9M | +13% |
FMAO's revenue has grown year over year for 10 quarters in a row: $35M last quarter, up 11% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 41% | +4.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 43% | +10 points |
| Q1 2026 | 38% | +6.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | +0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 36% | +4.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 33% | +4.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +3 points |
| Q4 2024 | 39% | +10 points |
FMAO has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over FMAO on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
FMAO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $14.6M | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.6M | +2651% |
| Q1 2026 | $7M | -34% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.2M | +604% |
| Q3 2025 | $10.7M | -41% |
| Q2 2025 | $385K | -96% |
| Q1 2025 | $10.6M | +740% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.9M | -78% |
FMAO has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
FMAO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +7.8K shares |
| 1 year | +0.3% | +41.6K shares |
| 3 years | +0.8% | +109K shares |
| 5 years | +22% | +2.5M shares |
| Available history | +22% | +2.5M shares |
FMAO has 14M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.6M |
| Q2 2026 | $42,000 |
| Q1 2026 | $57,000 |
| Q4 2025 | $1,000 |
| Q3 2025 | $338,000 |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $23,000 |
| Q4 2024 | — |
FMAO spent $2M buying back its own shares over the past year, about five times what it spent the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over FMAO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
FMAO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 4.5x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 2.7x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 3.1x | Elevated |
FMAO has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
FMAO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 71.0 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 74.3 | Neutral |
FMAO's weekly RSI is 71 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 74 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
FMAO PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | FMAO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 13x | 8.9% below |
| PE % | 39 | 63 | 24 pts below |
FMAO has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
FMAO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $35.8 | 3% above |
| 20 week MA | $34.3 | 7.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $29.8 | 24% above |
| 100 week MA | $27.5 | 34% above |
| 200 week MA | $25.4 | 45% above |
FMAO has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
FMAO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $30.7 | $23.0 | -25% |
| 2021 | $23.0 | $31.7 | +38% |
| 2022 | $31.7 | $27.8 | -12% |
| 2023 | $27.8 | $24.8 | -11% |
| 2024 | $24.8 | $28.6 | +15% |
| 2025 | $28.6 | $26.1 | -8.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $26.1 | $36.9 | +41% |
FMAO has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.