F
Ford Motor Company
F has a slight edge over TOL overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
TOL
Toll Brothers, Inc.
TOL offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
F Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
F's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
TOL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
TOL's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable, but its revenue is under pressure.
F PE Valuation
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
TOL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.9x | $73.71 | -50% |
| Fair | 9.3x | $116 | -21% |
| Forward | 11x | $148 | — |
| Expensive | 12x | $151 | +2.3% |
| Current | 12x | $148 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
TOL's PE is in its expensive range at 12x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 11x next year's earnings.
F Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect F's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
TOL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for TOL, with profitability holding steady.
F Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.78 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.97 | -270% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.87 | -340% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.55 | -224% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.06 | -241% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.16 | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.78 | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.25 | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.46 | +35% |
F has swung to a loss: it lost $1.97 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
TOL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.54 | +8.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.46 | -8.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $13.22 | -1.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.00 | -3.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.56 | -9.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $13.61 | -6.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $13.48 | -7.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.53 | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.03 | +21% |
TOL has the edge over F on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
F Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $49.5B | -2% |
| Q2 2026 | $48.3B | -3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $43.3B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.9B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $50.5B | +9.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $50.2B | +5% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.7B | -5% |
| Q4 2024 | $48.2B | +4.9% |
F has the edge over TOL on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | +4.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | -25% | -28 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1% | -2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5% | +3.1 points |
F's operating margin was 2.9% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
TOL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.7B | -9.7% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B | -7.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.1B | +15% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.4B | +2.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.9B | +8% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.7B | -3.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | -4.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.3B | +10% |
TOL's revenue fell from its 2022 peak and has held roughly level since: $2.7B last quarter, down 9.7% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 14% | -3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 14% | -2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 10% | -1.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | 16% | -1.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 17% | -1.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | -5.5 points |
| Q1 2025 | 12% | -4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | -0.2 points |
TOL has the edge over F on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
F Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | -40% |
| Q2 2026 | $2B | -54% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -157% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +108% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.3B | +50% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.2B | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | +$2.6B |
| Q4 2024 | $530M | +169% |
F has the edge over TOL on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
TOL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $219.6M | -36% |
| Q2 2026 | $110M | -68% |
| Q1 2026 | -$11.6M | +$426.5M |
| Q4 2025 | $772.2M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $344.9M | +130% |
| Q2 2025 | $347.3M | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | -$438.1M | -$117.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $664.3M | +16% |
TOL still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $1.1B over the past year.
F Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.2% | +89M shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +28M shares |
| 3 years | +0.6% | +26M shares |
| 5 years | +1% | +40M shares |
| Available history | +1.8% | +72M shares |
F has 4.1B diluted shares, up 0.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $311M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $150M |
F spent $311M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 107% from the year before.
TOL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.4% | -1.3M shares |
| 1 year | -4.8% | -4.7M shares |
| 3 years | -15% | -16.7M shares |
| 5 years | -25% | -31.2M shares |
| Available history | -34% | -49.1M shares |
TOL has the edge over F on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $204.9M |
| Q2 2026 | $179.6M |
| Q1 2026 | $50.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $246.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $199.4M |
| Q2 2025 | $181.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $23.7M |
| Q4 2024 | $203.5M |
TOL spent $682M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 12% from the year before.
F Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
F has the edge over TOL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
TOL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2025 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 1.8x | Healthy |
TOL's net debt is about 2.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 2.3 years a year ago.
F Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.6 | Oversold |
F's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).
TOL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.2 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 63.7 | Neutral |
TOL's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 64 (neutral).
F PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | F | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
TOL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | TOL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 12x | 18x | 34% below |
| PE % | 82 | 47 | 35 pts above |
TOL is trading at 12x earnings, a 34% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
F Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.2 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $13.3 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.4 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.1 | 2% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.1 | 1.4% below |
F is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 1.4% below its 200-week average.
TOL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $140.9 | 5% above |
| 20 week MA | $144.3 | 2.5% above |
| 50 week MA | $144.0 | 2.8% above |
| 100 week MA | $132.7 | 12% above |
| 200 week MA | $116.9 | 27% above |
TOL has the edge over F on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
F Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.36 | $8.86 | -5.3% |
| 2021 | $8.86 | $20.3 | +129% |
| 2022 | $20.3 | $11.4 | -44% |
| 2023 | $11.4 | $12.2 | +7.3% |
| 2024 | $12.2 | $10.0 | -18% |
| 2025 | $10.0 | $13.3 | +33% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.3 | $11.9 | -11% |
F's yearly returns have swung widely, from +129% in 2021 to −44% in 2022. It's down 11% so far in 2026.
TOL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $39.9 | $45.6 | +14% |
| 2021 | $45.6 | $70.5 | +54% |
| 2022 | $70.5 | $50.8 | -28% |
| 2023 | $50.8 | $102.8 | +102% |
| 2024 | $102.8 | $126.5 | +23% |
| 2025 | $126.5 | $139.1 | +10% |
| 2026 YTD | $139.1 | $148.0 | +6.4% |
TOL has the edge over F on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.