F

Ford Motor Company

52
Fundamentals40/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential57/ 100
Risk potential23/ 100

F has the edge over GRBK overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.

GRBK

Green Brick Partners, Inc.

41
Fundamentals37/ 100
Valuation33/ 100
Upside potential38/ 100
Risk potential34/ 100

GRBK trails on the overall score without a compensating advantage in the available component scores.

F Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Under pressure
Under pressure
Strong

F's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.

GRBK Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Under pressure
Healthy
Under pressure
Strong

GRBK's profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, but its revenue and cash flow are under pressure.

F PE Valuation

F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

GRBK PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE3.2x6.4x9.7x13x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE3.2x6.4x9.7x13x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap6.1x$38.15-37%
Fair8.9x$55.06-9.6%
Current9.8x$60.92—
Expensive10x$64.66+6.1%
Forward11x$60.92—

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

GRBK's PE is in its expensive range at 9.8x. Analysts expect earnings to fall, which would put today's price at 11x next year's earnings.

F Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Strong growth
Stable
Improving
Limited
Low

F has the edge over GRBK on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.

GRBK Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Deteriorating
Decline
Stable
Weakening
Limited
High

Analysts expect GRBK's earnings and profitability to decline, with its revenue holding steady.

F Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+31%$15.58
Downside-23%$9.16

Calculated from the latest close: $11.90 on Nov 12.

F has a better modeled risk to reward balance than GRBK, with more potential upside and less potential downside.

GRBK Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+21%$73.68
Downside-34%$40.15

Calculated from the latest close: $60.92 on Nov 12.

GRBK trails F on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside and more potential downside.

F Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $1.08Q1 2024: $0.97Q2 2024: $0.96Q3 2024: $0.88Q4 2024: $1.46Q1 2025: $1.25Q2 2025: $0.78Q3 2025: $1.16Q4 2025: $-2.06Q1 2026: $-1.55Q2 2026: $-1.87Q3 2026: $-1.97Forward: $1.78
Q4 2023: $1.08Q1 2024: $0.97Q2 2024: $0.96Q3 2024: $0.88Q4 2024: $1.46Q1 2025: $1.25Q2 2025: $0.78Q3 2025: $1.16Q4 2025: $-2.06Q1 2026: $-1.55Q2 2026: $-1.87Q3 2026: $-1.97Forward: $1.78
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$1.78—
Q3 2026-$1.97-270%
Q2 2026-$1.87-340%
Q1 2026-$1.55-224%
Q4 2025-$2.06-241%
Q3 2025$1.16+32%
Q2 2025$0.78-19%
Q1 2025$1.25+29%
Q4 2024$1.46+35%

F has swung to a loss: it lost $1.97 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.

GRBK Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $6.14Q1 2024: $6.59Q2 2024: $7.28Q3 2024: $7.70Q4 2024: $8.45Q1 2025: $8.30Q2 2025: $7.83Q3 2025: $7.62Q4 2025: $7.07Q1 2026: $6.79Q2 2026: $6.64Q3 2026: $6.22Forward: $5.30
Q4 2023: $6.14Q1 2024: $6.59Q2 2024: $7.28Q3 2024: $7.70Q4 2024: $8.45Q1 2025: $8.30Q2 2025: $7.83Q3 2025: $7.62Q4 2025: $7.07Q1 2026: $6.79Q2 2026: $6.64Q3 2026: $6.22Forward: $5.30
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$5.30-15%
Q3 2026$6.22-18%
Q2 2026$6.64-15%
Q1 2026$6.79-18%
Q4 2025$7.07-16%
Q3 2025$7.62-1%
Q2 2025$7.83+7.6%
Q1 2025$8.30+26%
Q4 2024$8.45+38%

GRBK has the edge over F on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

F Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $46BQ1 2024: $42.8BQ2 2024: $47.8BQ3 2024: $46.2BQ4 2024: $48.2BQ1 2025: $40.7BQ2 2025: $50.2BQ3 2025: $50.5BQ4 2025: $45.9BQ1 2026: $43.3BQ2 2026: $48.3BQ3 2026: $49.5B
Q4 2023: $46BQ1 2024: $42.8BQ2 2024: $47.8BQ3 2024: $46.2BQ4 2024: $48.2BQ1 2025: $40.7BQ2 2025: $50.2BQ3 2025: $50.5BQ4 2025: $45.9BQ1 2026: $43.3BQ2 2026: $48.3BQ3 2026: $49.5B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$49.5B-2%
Q2 2026$48.3B-3.8%
Q1 2026$43.3B+6.4%
Q4 2025$45.9B-4.8%
Q3 2025$50.5B+9.4%
Q2 2025$50.2B+5%
Q1 2025$40.7B-5%
Q4 2024$48.2B+4.9%

F has the edge over GRBK on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

GRBK Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $450MQ1 2024: $447MQ2 2024: $561MQ3 2024: $524MQ4 2024: $567MQ1 2025: $498MQ2 2025: $549MQ3 2025: $499MQ4 2025: $537MQ1 2026: $465MQ2 2026: $494MQ3 2026: $448M
Q4 2023: $450MQ1 2024: $447MQ2 2024: $561MQ3 2024: $524MQ4 2024: $567MQ1 2025: $498MQ2 2025: $549MQ3 2025: $499MQ4 2025: $537MQ1 2026: $465MQ2 2026: $494MQ3 2026: $448M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$448.2M-10%
Q2 2026$493.8M-10%
Q1 2026$465.5M-6.5%
Q4 2025$536.8M-5.4%
Q3 2025$499.1M-4.7%
Q2 2025$549.1M-2%
Q1 2025$497.6M+11%
Q4 2024$567.3M+26%

GRBK's revenue has slid since its 2024 peak: $448M last quarter, down 10% from the same quarter a year ago.

F Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $197MQ1 2024: −$709MQ2 2024: $3.4BQ3 2024: $3.5BQ4 2024: $530MQ1 2025: $1.9BQ2 2025: $4.2BQ3 2025: $5.3BQ4 2025: $1.1BQ1 2026: −$1.1BQ2 2026: $2BQ3 2026: $3.1B
Q4 2023: $197MQ1 2024: −$709MQ2 2024: $3.4BQ3 2024: $3.5BQ4 2024: $530MQ1 2025: $1.9BQ2 2025: $4.2BQ3 2025: $5.3BQ4 2025: $1.1BQ1 2026: −$1.1BQ2 2026: $2BQ3 2026: $3.1B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$3.1B-40%
Q2 2026$2B-54%
Q1 2026-$1.1B-157%
Q4 2025$1.1B+108%
Q3 2025$5.3B+50%
Q2 2025$4.2B+24%
Q1 2025$1.9B+$2.6B
Q4 2024$530M+169%

F has the edge over GRBK on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

GRBK Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$22MQ1 2024: $75,000Q2 2024: $780,000Q3 2024: −$7MQ4 2024: $28MQ1 2025: $68MQ2 2025: $74MQ3 2025: −$12MQ4 2025: $78MQ1 2026: $55MQ2 2026: −$10MQ3 2026: −$54M
Q4 2023: −$22MQ1 2024: $75,000Q2 2024: $780,000Q3 2024: −$7MQ4 2024: $28MQ1 2025: $68MQ2 2025: $74MQ3 2025: −$12MQ4 2025: $78MQ1 2026: $55MQ2 2026: −$10MQ3 2026: −$54M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$53.7M-$41.7M
Q2 2026-$9.8M-113%
Q1 2026$55M-19%
Q4 2025$78.4M+180%
Q3 2025-$12M-$4.7M
Q2 2025$74M+9391%
Q1 2025$68M+90612%
Q4 2024$28.1M+$50.4M

GRBK usually generates cash, though not every quarter: the latest was −$54M, but it generated $70M over the past year.

F Total Shares

Q4 2023: 4BQ1 2024: 4BQ2 2024: 4BQ3 2024: 4BQ4 2024: 4BQ1 2025: 4BQ2 2025: 4BQ3 2025: 4BQ4 2025: 4BQ1 2026: 4.1BQ2 2026: 4BQ3 2026: 4.1B
Q4 2023: 4BQ1 2024: 4BQ2 2024: 4BQ3 2024: 4BQ4 2024: 4BQ1 2025: 4BQ2 2025: 4BQ3 2025: 4BQ4 2025: 4BQ1 2026: 4.1BQ2 2026: 4BQ3 2026: 4.1B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+2.2%+89M shares
1 year+0.7%+28M shares
3 years+0.6%+26M shares
5 years+1%+40M shares
Available history+1.8%+72M shares

F has 4.1B diluted shares, up 0.7% from a year ago.

GRBK Total Shares

Q4 2023: 46MQ1 2024: 45MQ2 2024: 45MQ3 2024: 45MQ4 2024: 45MQ1 2025: 45MQ2 2025: 44MQ3 2025: 44MQ4 2025: 44MQ1 2026: 43MQ2 2026: 43MQ3 2026: 43M
Q4 2023: 46MQ1 2024: 45MQ2 2024: 45MQ3 2024: 45MQ4 2024: 45MQ1 2025: 45MQ2 2025: 44MQ3 2025: 44MQ4 2025: 44MQ1 2026: 43MQ2 2026: 43MQ3 2026: 43M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.2%-75K shares
1 year-1%-428K shares
3 years-5.7%-2.6M shares
5 years-15%-7.9M shares
Available history-15%-7.4M shares

GRBK has the edge over F on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

F Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -1.9xQ1 2024: -1.6xQ2 2024: -1.7xQ3 2024: -2.1xQ4 2024: -1.8xQ1 2025: -1.8xQ2 2025: -2.2xQ3 2025: -2.4xQ4 2025: -3.4xQ1 2026: -2.0xQ2 2026: -2.1xQ3 2026: -2.5x
Q4 2023: -1.9xQ1 2024: -1.6xQ2 2024: -1.7xQ3 2024: -2.1xQ4 2024: -1.8xQ1 2025: -1.8xQ2 2025: -2.2xQ3 2025: -2.4xQ4 2025: -3.4xQ1 2026: -2.0xQ2 2026: -2.1xQ3 2026: -2.5x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 2026-2.5xNet Cash
Q2 2026-2.1xNet Cash
Q1 2026-2.0xNet Cash
Q4 2025-3.4xNet Cash
Q3 2025-2.4xNet Cash
Q2 2025-2.2xNet Cash
Q1 2025-1.8xNet Cash
Q4 2024-1.8xNet Cash

F has the edge over GRBK on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.

GRBK Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 0.4xQ1 2024: 0.3xQ2 2024: 0.4xQ3 2024: 0.5xQ4 2024: 0.4xQ1 2025: 0.3xQ2 2025: 0.3xQ3 2025: 0.3xQ4 2025: 0.4xQ1 2026: 0.2xQ2 2026: 0.3xQ3 2026: 0.2x
Q4 2023: 0.4xQ1 2024: 0.3xQ2 2024: 0.4xQ3 2024: 0.5xQ4 2024: 0.4xQ1 2025: 0.3xQ2 2025: 0.3xQ3 2025: 0.3xQ4 2025: 0.4xQ1 2026: 0.2xQ2 2026: 0.3xQ3 2026: 0.2x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20260.2xVery low
Q2 20260.3xVery low
Q1 20260.2xVery low
Q4 20250.4xVery low
Q3 20250.3xVery low
Q2 20250.3xVery low
Q1 20250.3xVery low
Q4 20240.4xVery low

GRBK's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).

F Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI41.5Neutral
Stochastic19.6Oversold

F's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).

GRBK Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI41.0Neutral
Stochastic19.7Oversold

GRBK's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).

F PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricFSector medianRelative
PEN/A18x—

F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

GRBK PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector

MetricGRBKSector medianRelative
PE9.8x18x46% below
PE %744727 pts above

GRBK is trading at 9.8x earnings, a 46% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.

F Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$12.22.5% below
20 week MA$13.311% below
50 week MA$13.411% below
100 week MA$12.12% below
200 week MA$12.11.4% below

F is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 1.4% below its 200-week average.

GRBK Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$63.84.5% below
20 week MA$68.711% below
50 week MA$68.912% below
100 week MA$65.87.4% below
200 week MA$59.81.8% above

GRBK has the edge over F on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

F Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$9.36$8.86-5.3%
2021$8.86$20.3+129%
2022$20.3$11.4-44%
2023$11.4$12.2+7.3%
2024$12.2$10.0-18%
2025$10.0$13.3+33%
2026 YTD$13.3$11.9-11%

F's yearly returns have swung widely, from +129% in 2021 to −44% in 2022. It's down 11% so far in 2026.

GRBK Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$11.4$24.3+113%
2021$24.3$29.9+23%
2022$29.9$24.3-19%
2023$24.3$51.9+114%
2024$51.9$56.4+8.7%
2025$56.4$63.8+13%
2026 YTD$63.8$60.9-4.5%

GRBK has the edge over F on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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