EXOD

Exodus Movement, Inc.

41
Fundamentals15/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential64/ 100
Risk potential44/ 100

EXOD's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

MSFT

Microsoft Corporation

76
Fundamentals75/ 100
Valuation69/ 100
Upside potential75/ 100
Risk potential10/ 100

MSFT has the edge over EXOD overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.

EXOD Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Weak
Weak
Strong

EXOD's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are weak.

MSFT Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Strong
Healthy
Strong

MSFT's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.

EXOD PE Valuation

EXOD has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MSFT PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE11x21x32x42x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE11x21x32x42x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward25x$523—
Cheap27x$525+0.4%
Current27x$523—
Fair34x$652+25%
Expensive37x$711+36%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

MSFT's PE is in its cheap range at 27x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 25x next year's earnings.

EXOD Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Losses shrinking
Strong growth
Strongly improving
Limited
Moderate

EXOD has the edge over MSFT on the outlook, with more favorable profitability expectations.

MSFT Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Strong growth
Strong growth
Stable
Moderate
High

Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for MSFT, with profitability holding steady.

EXOD Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+80%$8.69
Downside-44%$2.70

Calculated from the latest close: $4.83 on Nov 12.

EXOD trails MSFT on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

MSFT Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+28%$671.86
Downside-10%$472.97

Calculated from the latest close: $523.00 on Nov 12.

MSFT has a better modeled risk to reward balance than EXOD, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

EXOD Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $0.40Q1 2024: $11.61Q2 2024: $10.03Q3 2024: $10.17Q4 2024: $12.40Q1 2025: $-0.22Q2 2025: $2.42Q3 2025: $2.83Q4 2025: $-1.53Q1 2026: $-1.26Q2 2026: $-3.00Q3 2026: $-3.80
Q4 2023: $0.40Q1 2024: $11.61Q2 2024: $10.03Q3 2024: $10.17Q4 2024: $12.40Q1 2025: $-0.22Q2 2025: $2.42Q3 2025: $2.83Q4 2025: $-1.53Q1 2026: $-1.26Q2 2026: $-3.00Q3 2026: $-3.80
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Q3 2026-$3.80-234%
Q2 2026-$3.00-224%
Q1 2026-$1.26-$1.04
Q4 2025-$1.53-112%
Q3 2025$2.83-72%
Q2 2025$2.42-76%
Q1 2025-$0.22-102%
Q4 2024$12.40+3000%

EXOD has swung to a loss: it lost $3.80 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.

MSFT Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $11.05Q1 2024: $11.54Q2 2024: $11.80Q3 2024: $12.11Q4 2024: $12.41Q1 2025: $12.93Q2 2025: $13.64Q3 2025: $14.06Q4 2025: $15.99Q1 2026: $16.80Q2 2026: $17.95Q3 2026: $19.15Forward: $20.79
Q4 2023: $11.05Q1 2024: $11.54Q2 2024: $11.80Q3 2024: $12.11Q4 2024: $12.41Q1 2025: $12.93Q2 2025: $13.64Q3 2025: $14.06Q4 2025: $15.99Q1 2026: $16.80Q2 2026: $17.95Q3 2026: $19.15Forward: $20.79
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$20.79+8.6%
Q3 2026$19.15+36%
Q2 2026$17.95+32%
Q1 2026$16.80+30%
Q4 2025$15.99+29%
Q3 2025$14.06+16%
Q2 2025$13.64+16%
Q1 2025$12.93+12%
Q4 2024$12.41+12%

MSFT has the edge over EXOD on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

EXOD Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $18MQ1 2024: $29MQ2 2024: $22MQ3 2024: $20MQ4 2024: $46MQ1 2025: $36MQ2 2025: $26MQ3 2025: $30MQ4 2025: $29MQ1 2026: $23MQ2 2026: $26MQ3 2026: $33M
Q4 2023: $18MQ1 2024: $29MQ2 2024: $22MQ3 2024: $20MQ4 2024: $46MQ1 2025: $36MQ2 2025: $26MQ3 2025: $30MQ4 2025: $29MQ1 2026: $23MQ2 2026: $26MQ3 2026: $33M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$32.5M+7.2%
Q2 2026$26.2M+1.6%
Q1 2026$22.7M-37%
Q4 2025$29.4M-36%
Q3 2025$30.3M+51%
Q2 2025$25.8M+16%
Q1 2025$36M+24%
Q4 2024$46M+149%

EXOD's revenue is recovering but still below its 2024 peak: $33M last quarter, up 7.2% from the same quarter a year ago.

MSFT Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $62BQ1 2024: $61.9BQ2 2024: $64.7BQ3 2024: $65.6BQ4 2024: $69.6BQ1 2025: $70.1BQ2 2025: $76.4BQ3 2025: $77.7BQ4 2025: $81.3BQ1 2026: $82.9BQ2 2026: $90BQ3 2026: $92.3B
Q4 2023: $62BQ1 2024: $61.9BQ2 2024: $64.7BQ3 2024: $65.6BQ4 2024: $69.6BQ1 2025: $70.1BQ2 2025: $76.4BQ3 2025: $77.7BQ4 2025: $81.3BQ1 2026: $82.9BQ2 2026: $90BQ3 2026: $92.3B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$92.3B+19%
Q2 2026$90B+18%
Q1 2026$82.9B+18%
Q4 2025$81.3B+17%
Q3 2025$77.7B+18%
Q2 2025$76.4B+18%
Q1 2025$70.1B+13%
Q4 2024$69.6B+12%

MSFT has the edge over EXOD on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

EXOD Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$2MQ1 2024: $300,000Q2 2024: −$2MQ3 2024: −$5MQ4 2024: −$5MQ1 2025: −$6MQ2 2025: −$5MQ3 2025: −$5MQ4 2025: −$9MQ1 2026: −$3MQ2 2026: −$50MQ3 2026: −$26M
Q4 2023: −$2MQ1 2024: $300,000Q2 2024: −$2MQ3 2024: −$5MQ4 2024: −$5MQ1 2025: −$6MQ2 2025: −$5MQ3 2025: −$5MQ4 2025: −$9MQ1 2026: −$3MQ2 2026: −$50MQ3 2026: −$26M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026-$26.3M-$21.4M
Q2 2026-$49.6M-$44.2M
Q1 2026-$2.6M+$3.6M
Q4 2025-$9.1M-$3.9M
Q3 2025-$4.8M+$78K
Q2 2025-$5.4M-$3M
Q1 2025-$6.2M-2172%
Q4 2024-$5.3M-$3M

EXOD has burned cash in eight of the last eight quarters: −$88M over the past year, against −$22M the year before.

MSFT Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $9.1BQ1 2024: $21BQ2 2024: $23.3BQ3 2024: $19.3BQ4 2024: $6.5BQ1 2025: $20.3BQ2 2025: $25.6BQ3 2025: $25.7BQ4 2025: $5.9BQ1 2026: $15.8BQ2 2026: $19.6BQ3 2026: $18.6B
Q4 2023: $9.1BQ1 2024: $21BQ2 2024: $23.3BQ3 2024: $19.3BQ4 2024: $6.5BQ1 2025: $20.3BQ2 2025: $25.6BQ3 2025: $25.7BQ4 2025: $5.9BQ1 2026: $15.8BQ2 2026: $19.6BQ3 2026: $18.6B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$18.6B-27%
Q2 2026$19.6B-23%
Q1 2026$15.8B-22%
Q4 2025$5.9B-9.3%
Q3 2025$25.7B+33%
Q2 2025$25.6B+9.6%
Q1 2025$20.3B-3.2%
Q4 2024$6.5B-29%

MSFT has the edge over EXOD on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.

EXOD Total Shares

Q4 2023: 31MQ1 2024: 5MQ2 2024: 6MQ3 2024: 7MQ4 2024: 26MQ1 2025: 9MQ2 2025: 34MQ3 2025: 32MQ4 2025: 30MQ1 2026: 29MQ2 2026: 30MQ3 2026: 31M
Q4 2023: 31MQ1 2024: 5MQ2 2024: 6MQ3 2024: 7MQ4 2024: 26MQ1 2025: 9MQ2 2025: 34MQ3 2025: 32MQ4 2025: 30MQ1 2026: 29MQ2 2026: 30MQ3 2026: 31M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+1.6%+493K shares
1 year-5.5%-1.8M shares
3 years+18%+4.6M shares
5 years+21%+5.3M shares
Available history+34%+7.8M shares

EXOD has the edge over MSFT on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

MSFT Total Shares

Q4 2023: 7.5BQ1 2024: 7.5BQ2 2024: 7.5BQ3 2024: 7.5BQ4 2024: 7.5BQ1 2025: 7.5BQ2 2025: 7.5BQ3 2025: 7.5BQ4 2025: 7.5BQ1 2026: 7.4BQ2 2026: 7.5BQ3 2026: 7.4B
Q4 2023: 7.5BQ1 2024: 7.5BQ2 2024: 7.5BQ3 2024: 7.5BQ4 2024: 7.5BQ1 2025: 7.5BQ2 2025: 7.5BQ3 2025: 7.5BQ4 2025: 7.5BQ1 2026: 7.4BQ2 2026: 7.5BQ3 2026: 7.4B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.1%-7M shares
1 year-0.3%-20M shares
3 years-0.2%-16M shares
5 years-1.6%-121M shares
Available history-3.2%-245M shares

MSFT has 7.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.

EXOD Net Leverage

Q4 2023: -0.8xQ1 2024: -0.3xQ2 2024: -0.4xQ3 2024: -0.4xQ4 2024: -0.3xQ1 2025: -1.4xQ2 2025: -0.5xQ3 2025: -0.4xQ4 2025: -0.2xQ1 2026: -5.7x
Q4 2023: -0.8xQ1 2024: -0.3xQ2 2024: -0.4xQ3 2024: -0.4xQ4 2024: -0.3xQ1 2025: -1.4xQ2 2025: -0.5xQ3 2025: -0.4xQ4 2025: -0.2xQ1 2026: -5.7x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q1 2026-5.7xNet Cash
Q4 2025-0.2xNet Cash
Q3 2025-0.4xNet Cash
Q2 2025-0.5xNet Cash
Q1 2025-1.4xNet Cash
Q4 2024-0.3xNet Cash
Q3 2024-0.4xNet Cash
Q2 2024-0.4xNet Cash

EXOD has more cash than debt.

MSFT Net Leverage

Q2 2026: 0.1xQ3 2026: 0.1x
Q2 2026: 0.1xQ3 2026: 0.1x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20260.1xVery low
Q2 20260.1xVery low

MSFT's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).

EXOD Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI39.4Neutral
Stochastic9.5Oversold

EXOD's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 9 (oversold).

MSFT Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI62.1Neutral
Stochastic68.0Neutral

MSFT's weekly RSI is 62 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 68 (neutral).

EXOD PE vs Technology Sector

MetricEXODSector medianRelative
PEN/A28x—

EXOD has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

MSFT PE vs Technology Sector

MetricMSFTSector medianRelative
PE27x28x2% below
PE %163519 pts below

MSFT is trading at 27x earnings, in line with the Technology sector's median of 28x.

EXOD Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$5.7716% below
20 week MA$6.0420% below
50 week MA$8.4543% below
100 week MA$21.577% below
200 week MA$14.767% below

EXOD is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 67% below its 200-week average.

MSFT Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$524.70.3% below
20 week MA$484.87.9% above
50 week MA$446.917% above
100 week MA$453.815% above
200 week MA$411.527% above

MSFT has the edge over EXOD on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

EXOD Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2021$25.3$21.0-17%
2022$21.0$1.25-94%
2023$1.25$2.30+84%
2024$2.30$40.6+1664%
2025$40.6$15.1-63%
2026 YTD$15.1$4.83-68%

EXOD's yearly returns have swung widely, from +1664% in 2024 to −94% in 2022. It's down 68% so far in 2026.

MSFT Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$159.0$222.8+40%
2021$222.8$334.7+50%
2022$334.7$238.7-29%
2023$238.7$376.0+58%
2024$376.0$430.5+14%
2025$430.5$487.7+13%
2026 YTD$487.7$523.0+7.2%

MSFT has the edge over EXOD on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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