EVH

Evolent Health, Inc.

52
Fundamentals46/ 100
Valuation50/ 100
Upside potential65/ 100
Risk potential43/ 100

EVH's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.

UNH

UnitedHealth Group Incorporated

62
Fundamentals51/ 100
Valuation56/ 100
Upside potential71/ 100
Risk potential15/ 100

UNH has the edge over EVH overall, supported by lower modeled downside and stronger valuation.

EVH Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Weak
Stable
Weak

EVH's revenue is currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable, but its profitability and balance sheet are weak.

UNH Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Stable
Healthy
Healthy

UNH's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.

EVH PE Valuation

EVH has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

UNH PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE10x21x31x42x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE10x21x31x42x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward18x$405—
Cheap19x$325-20%
Fair23x$410+1.2%
Current23x$405—
Expensive30x$526+30%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

UNH's PE is in its fair range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.

EVH Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
--
Strong growth
Strong growth
Stable
Limited
Low

Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for EVH, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

UNH Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Stable
Improving
Moderate
Low

Analysts expect UNH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.

EVH Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+79%$8.55
Downside-43%$2.71

Calculated from the latest close: $4.77 on Nov 12.

EVH trails UNH on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

UNH Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+36%$550.65
Downside-15%$346.07

Calculated from the latest close: $405.13 on Nov 12.

UNH has a better modeled risk to reward balance than EVH, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

EVH Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-1.27Q1 2024: $-1.25Q2 2024: $-0.94Q3 2024: $-0.91Q4 2024: $-0.82Q1 2025: $-1.23Q2 2025: $-1.61Q3 2025: $-1.58Q4 2025: $-5.15Q1 2026: $-4.76Q2 2026: $-4.57Q3 2026: $-4.54Forward: $0.40
Q4 2023: $-1.27Q1 2024: $-1.25Q2 2024: $-0.94Q3 2024: $-0.91Q4 2024: $-0.82Q1 2025: $-1.23Q2 2025: $-1.61Q3 2025: $-1.58Q4 2025: $-5.15Q1 2026: $-4.76Q2 2026: $-4.57Q3 2026: $-4.54Forward: $0.40
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$0.40—
Q3 2026-$4.54-$2.96
Q2 2026-$4.57-$2.96
Q1 2026-$4.76-$3.53
Q4 2025-$5.15-$4.33
Q3 2025-$1.58-$0.67
Q2 2025-$1.61-$0.67
Q1 2025-$1.23+$0.02
Q4 2024-$0.82+$0.45

EVH is still losing money, but less than at its worst: $4.54 per share over the past year, against $6.11 at its worst in late 2020.

UNH Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $23.86Q1 2024: $16.38Q2 2024: $15.10Q3 2024: $15.37Q4 2024: $15.51Q1 2025: $23.89Q2 2025: $23.09Q3 2025: $19.17Q4 2025: $13.23Q1 2026: $13.28Q2 2026: $15.58Q3 2026: $17.55Forward: $22.65
Q4 2023: $23.86Q1 2024: $16.38Q2 2024: $15.10Q3 2024: $15.37Q4 2024: $15.51Q1 2025: $23.89Q2 2025: $23.09Q3 2025: $19.17Q4 2025: $13.23Q1 2026: $13.28Q2 2026: $15.58Q3 2026: $17.55Forward: $22.65
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$22.65+29%
Q3 2026$17.55-8.5%
Q2 2026$15.58-33%
Q1 2026$13.28-44%
Q4 2025$13.23-15%
Q3 2025$19.17+25%
Q2 2025$23.09+53%
Q1 2025$23.89+46%
Q4 2024$15.51-35%

UNH has the edge over EVH on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.

EVH Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $556MQ1 2024: $640MQ2 2024: $647MQ3 2024: $621MQ4 2024: $647MQ1 2025: $484MQ2 2025: $444MQ3 2025: $480MQ4 2025: $469MQ1 2026: $496MQ2 2026: $653MQ3 2026: $725M
Q4 2023: $556MQ1 2024: $640MQ2 2024: $647MQ3 2024: $621MQ4 2024: $647MQ1 2025: $484MQ2 2025: $444MQ3 2025: $480MQ4 2025: $469MQ1 2026: $496MQ2 2026: $653MQ3 2026: $725M
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$725.4M+51%
Q2 2026$652.5M+47%
Q1 2026$496.2M+2.6%
Q4 2025$468.7M-28%
Q3 2025$479.5M-23%
Q2 2025$444.3M-31%
Q1 2025$483.6M-24%
Q4 2024$646.5M+16%

EVH's revenue is growing: $725M last quarter, up 51% from the same quarter a year ago.

UNH Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $94.4BQ1 2024: $99.8BQ2 2024: $98.9BQ3 2024: $101BQ4 2024: $101BQ1 2025: $110BQ2 2025: $112BQ3 2025: $113BQ4 2025: $113BQ1 2026: $112BQ2 2026: $112BQ3 2026: $113B
Q4 2023: $94.4BQ1 2024: $99.8BQ2 2024: $98.9BQ3 2024: $101BQ4 2024: $101BQ1 2025: $110BQ2 2025: $112BQ3 2025: $113BQ4 2025: $113BQ1 2026: $112BQ2 2026: $112BQ3 2026: $113B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$112.7B-0.4%
Q2 2026$112B+0.4%
Q1 2026$111.7B+2%
Q4 2025$113.2B+12%
Q3 2025$113.2B+12%
Q2 2025$111.6B+13%
Q1 2025$109.6B+9.8%
Q4 2024$100.8B+6.8%

UNH has the edge over EVH on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

EVH Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $89MQ1 2024: $5MQ2 2024: $21MQ3 2024: $19MQ4 2024: −$26MQ1 2025: $5MQ2 2025: −$30MQ3 2025: $16MQ4 2025: $49MQ1 2026: −$984,000Q2 2026: −$9MQ3 2026: $26M
Q4 2023: $89MQ1 2024: $5MQ2 2024: $21MQ3 2024: $19MQ4 2024: −$26MQ1 2025: $5MQ2 2025: −$30MQ3 2025: $16MQ4 2025: $49MQ1 2026: −$984,000Q2 2026: −$9MQ3 2026: $26M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$26.4M+67%
Q2 2026-$9.3M+$21M
Q1 2026-$984K-122%
Q4 2025$48.8M+$75M
Q3 2025$15.8M-15%
Q2 2025-$30.3M-242%
Q1 2025$4.6M-7%
Q4 2024-$26.2M-129%

EVH's free cash flow has turned positive again: $65M over the past year, against −$36M the year before.

UNH Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$6.2BQ1 2024: $401MQ2 2024: $5.9BQ3 2024: $13BQ4 2024: $1.5BQ1 2025: $4.6BQ2 2025: $6.3BQ3 2025: $5.1BQ4 2025: $160MQ1 2026: $8.1BQ2 2026: $10.3BQ3 2026: $4.3B
Q4 2023: −$6.2BQ1 2024: $401MQ2 2024: $5.9BQ3 2024: $13BQ4 2024: $1.5BQ1 2025: $4.6BQ2 2025: $6.3BQ3 2025: $5.1BQ4 2025: $160MQ1 2026: $8.1BQ2 2026: $10.3BQ3 2026: $4.3B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$4.3B-16%
Q2 2026$10.3B+63%
Q1 2026$8.1B+79%
Q4 2025$160M-89%
Q3 2025$5.1B-61%
Q2 2025$6.3B+6.9%
Q1 2025$4.6B+1037%
Q4 2024$1.5B+$7.6B

UNH has the edge over EVH on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

EVH Total Shares

Q4 2023: 111MQ1 2024: 114MQ2 2024: 115MQ3 2024: 115MQ4 2024: 115MQ1 2025: 115MQ2 2025: 116MQ3 2025: 114MQ4 2025: 114MQ1 2026: 112MQ2 2026: 113MQ3 2026: 113M
Q4 2023: 111MQ1 2024: 114MQ2 2024: 115MQ3 2024: 115MQ4 2024: 115MQ1 2025: 115MQ2 2025: 116MQ3 2025: 114MQ4 2025: 114MQ1 2026: 112MQ2 2026: 113MQ3 2026: 113M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+0.5%+529K shares
1 year-0.9%-995K shares
3 years+0.7%+789K shares
5 years+32%+27.3M shares
Available history+37%+30.7M shares

EVH has the edge over UNH on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

UNH Total Shares

Q4 2023: 938MQ1 2024: 922MQ2 2024: 928MQ3 2024: 930MQ4 2024: 929MQ1 2025: 918MQ2 2025: 910MQ3 2025: 908MQ4 2025: 911MQ1 2026: 910MQ2 2026: 906MQ3 2026: 902M
Q4 2023: 938MQ1 2024: 922MQ2 2024: 928MQ3 2024: 930MQ4 2024: 929MQ1 2025: 918MQ2 2025: 910MQ3 2025: 908MQ4 2025: 911MQ1 2026: 910MQ2 2026: 906MQ3 2026: 902M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-0.4%-4M shares
1 year-0.7%-6M shares
3 years-3.6%-34M shares
5 years-5.5%-53M shares
Available history-6.6%-64M shares

UNH has 902M diluted shares, down 0.7% from a year ago, with $5B in buybacks over the past year.

EVH Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 7.7xQ1 2024: 8.8xQ2 2024: 6.5xQ3 2024: 6.7xQ4 2024: 7.2xQ1 2025: 6.8xQ2 2025: 9.8xQ3 2025: 11.9x
Q4 2023: 7.7xQ1 2024: 8.8xQ2 2024: 6.5xQ3 2024: 6.7xQ4 2024: 7.2xQ1 2025: 6.8xQ2 2025: 9.8xQ3 2025: 11.9x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 202511.9xHigh
Q2 20259.8xHigh
Q1 20256.8xHigh
Q4 20247.2xHigh
Q3 20246.7xHigh
Q2 20246.5xHigh
Q1 20248.8xHigh
Q4 20237.7xHigh

EVH's net debt is about 12 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from 6.7 years a year ago.

UNH Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 1.0xQ1 2024: 1.3xQ2 2024: 1.4xQ3 2024: 1.3xQ4 2024: 1.4xQ1 2025: 1.3xQ2 2025: 1.5xQ3 2025: 1.7xQ4 2025: 2.3xQ1 2026: 2.2xQ2 2026: 1.7xQ3 2026: 1.7x
Q4 2023: 1.0xQ1 2024: 1.3xQ2 2024: 1.4xQ3 2024: 1.3xQ4 2024: 1.4xQ1 2025: 1.3xQ2 2025: 1.5xQ3 2025: 1.7xQ4 2025: 2.3xQ1 2026: 2.2xQ2 2026: 1.7xQ3 2026: 1.7x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20261.7xHealthy
Q2 20261.7xHealthy
Q1 20262.2xModerate
Q4 20252.3xModerate
Q3 20251.7xHealthy
Q2 20251.5xHealthy
Q1 20251.3xHealthy
Q4 20241.4xHealthy

UNH's net debt is about 1.7 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.

EVH Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI54.3Neutral
Stochastic72.6Neutral

EVH's weekly RSI is 54 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 73 (neutral).

UNH Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI56.4Neutral
Stochastic60.0Neutral

UNH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).

EVH PE vs Healthcare Sector

EVH has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.

UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector

MetricUNHSector medianRelative
PE23x26x11% below
PE %472918 pts above

UNH is trading at 23x earnings, a 11% discount to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.

EVH Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$4.2712% above
20 week MA$4.457.2% above
50 week MA$3.9222% above
100 week MA$6.5027% below
200 week MA$17.272% below

EVH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 72% below its 200-week average.

UNH Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$394.22.8% above
20 week MA$400.51.2% above
50 week MA$361.212% above
100 week MA$376.07.8% above
200 week MA$446.69.3% below

UNH has the edge over EVH on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

EVH Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$8.85$16.3+84%
2021$16.3$27.0+66%
2022$27.0$27.3+1.3%
2023$27.3$33.0+21%
2024$33.0$11.1-66%
2025$11.1$4.12-63%
2026 YTD$4.12$4.77+16%

EVH has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's up 16% so far in 2026.

UNH Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$296.0$340.8+15%
2021$340.8$495.4+45%
2022$495.4$531.3+7.3%
2023$531.3$526.5-0.9%
2024$526.5$510.0-3.1%
2025$510.0$331.8-35%
2026 YTD$331.8$405.1+22%

UNH has the edge over EVH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

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