ERIE
Erie Indemnity Company
ERIE offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over ERIE overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
ERIE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
ERIE's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like ERIE.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
ERIE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 20x | $270 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $201 | -26% |
| Fair | 35x | $266 | -1.4% |
| Current | 36x | $270 | — |
| Expensive | 43x | $324 | +20% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ERIE has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
ERIE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect ERIE's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over ERIE on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
ERIE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.23 | +76% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.51 | -39% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.98 | -8.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.87 | -7.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.66 | -7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $12.37 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.96 | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.75 | +27% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.48 | +35% |
ERIE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $7.51 over the past year, against $12.37 in late 2025.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over ERIE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ERIE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | +2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1B | +2.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $951.2M | +2.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | +6.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | +7% |
| Q1 2025 | $989.4M | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $924.1M | +13% |
ERIE's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $1.1B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | -0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 17% | -1.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 20% | +1.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 19% | -0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | +2.6 points |
ERIE's operating margin was 19% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over ERIE on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over ERIE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ERIE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $185.4M | +0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $173.4M | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $54.5M | -38% |
| Q4 2025 | $140.8M | -4.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $184.4M | +7.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $157.3M | +52% |
| Q1 2025 | $88.4M | +37% |
| Q4 2024 | $146.8M | +15% |
ERIE has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
ERIE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -390K shares |
| 1 year | 0% | -8.3K shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -383K shares |
| 5 years | -10% | -6.1M shares |
| Available history | -10% | -6.1M shares |
ERIE has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
ERIE hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
ERIE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
ERIE has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
ERIE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.4 | Neutral |
ERIE's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 74 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
ERIE PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | ERIE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 36x | 13x | 176% above |
| PE % | 52 | 63 | 11 pts below |
ERIE is trading at 36x earnings, a 176% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x, though its earnings don't support one.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS has the edge over ERIE on valuation relative to its sector.
ERIE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $246.0 | 9.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $247.1 | 9.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $251.3 | 7.4% above |
| 100 week MA | $307.6 | 12% below |
| 200 week MA | $321.0 | 16% below |
ERIE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 16% below its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
ERIE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $166.4 | $243.3 | +46% |
| 2021 | $243.3 | $190.2 | -22% |
| 2022 | $190.2 | $276.3 | +45% |
| 2023 | $276.3 | $334.9 | +21% |
| 2024 | $334.9 | $419.3 | +25% |
| 2025 | $419.3 | $282.4 | -33% |
| 2026 YTD | $282.4 | $270.0 | -4.4% |
ERIE has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 4.4% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over ERIE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.