ERIE
Erie Indemnity Company
ERIE offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM has a slight edge over ERIE overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
ERIE Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
ERIE's profitability is currently healthy, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like ERIE.
JPM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
JPM's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like JPM.
ERIE PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 20x | $270 | — |
| Cheap | 27x | $201 | -26% |
| Fair | 35x | $266 | -1.4% |
| Current | 36x | $270 | — |
| Expensive | 43x | $324 | +20% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
ERIE has the edge over JPM in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
JPM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.7x | $231 | -33% |
| Fair | 12x | $287 | -16% |
| Current | 14x | $343 | — |
| Forward | 14x | $343 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $361 | +5.2% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
JPM's PE is in its expensive range at 14.4x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 13.7x next year's earnings.
ERIE Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect ERIE's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
JPM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for JPM, with profitability improving.
ERIE Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.23 | +76% |
| Q3 2026 | $7.51 | -39% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.98 | -8.2% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.87 | -7.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.66 | -7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $12.37 | +16% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.96 | +18% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.75 | +27% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.48 | +35% |
ERIE's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $7.51 over the past year, against $12.37 in late 2025.
JPM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $24.99 | +4.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $23.85 | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.35 | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.89 | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $20.02 | +1.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.20 | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.50 | +8.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.38 | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $19.75 | +22% |
JPM has the edge over ERIE on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
ERIE Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | +0.2% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | +2.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $1B | +2.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $951.2M | +2.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.1B | +6.7% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.1B | +7% |
| Q1 2025 | $989.4M | +12% |
| Q4 2024 | $924.1M | +13% |
ERIE's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $1.1B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | -0.3 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | -0.1 points |
| Q1 2026 | 16% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 17% | -1.5 points |
| Q3 2025 | 20% | +1.7 points |
| Q2 2025 | 19% | -0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 15% | -0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 18% | +2.6 points |
ERIE's operating margin was 19% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
JPM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $50.2B | +8.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $57.3B | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $49.8B | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.8B | +7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $46.4B | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $44.9B | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $45.3B | +8.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $42.8B | +11% |
JPM's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $50.2B last quarter, up 8.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 40% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 48% | +7.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 41% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 37% | -3.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 40% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 41% | -6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 41% | -0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 41% | +11 points |
JPM has the edge over ERIE on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
ERIE Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $185.4M | +0.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $173.4M | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $54.5M | -38% |
| Q4 2025 | $140.8M | -4.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $184.4M | +7.6% |
| Q2 2025 | $157.3M | +52% |
| Q1 2025 | $88.4M | +37% |
| Q4 2024 | $146.8M | +15% |
ERIE has the edge over JPM on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
JPM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $33.2B | +$78.4B |
| Q2 2026 | -$25.3B | -186% |
| Q1 2026 | -$211.8B | +$40.1B |
| Q4 2025 | $119.7B | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | -$45.2B | +$28.9B |
| Q2 2025 | $29.5B | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | -$251.8B | -$97.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $147.8B | +145% |
JPM's free cash flow was −$84.2B over the past year, against −$120B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JPM.
ERIE Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -390K shares |
| 1 year | 0% | -8.3K shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -383K shares |
| 5 years | -10% | -6.1M shares |
| Available history | -10% | -6.1M shares |
ERIE has the edge over JPM on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
ERIE hasn't bought back shares in the past year.
JPM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -11.2M shares |
| 1 year | -3.1% | -84.6M shares |
| 3 years | -8.5% | -249M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -322M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -547M shares |
JPM has 2.7B diluted shares, down 3.1% from a year ago, with $24.5B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q2 2026 | $6.8B |
| Q1 2026 | $8.3B |
| Q4 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q3 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $4.3B |
JPM spent $24.5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 11% from the year before.
ERIE Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.4x | Net Cash |
ERIE has the edge over JPM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
JPM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
JPM's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA). Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JPM.
ERIE Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.4 | Neutral |
ERIE's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 74 (neutral).
JPM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.5 | Neutral |
JPM's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
ERIE PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | ERIE | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 36x | 13x | 176% above |
| PE % | 52 | 63 | 11 pts below |
ERIE is trading at 36x earnings, a 176% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x, though its earnings don't support one.
JPM PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | JPM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 13x | 10% above |
| PE % | 76 | 63 | 13 pts above |
JPM has the edge over ERIE on valuation relative to its sector.
ERIE Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $246.0 | 9.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $247.1 | 9.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $251.3 | 7.4% above |
| 100 week MA | $307.6 | 12% below |
| 200 week MA | $321.0 | 16% below |
ERIE has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 16% below its 200-week average.
JPM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $336.8 | 1.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $345.3 | 0.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $323.2 | 6.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $298.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $236.6 | 45% above |
JPM has the edge over ERIE on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
ERIE Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $166.4 | $243.3 | +46% |
| 2021 | $243.3 | $190.2 | -22% |
| 2022 | $190.2 | $276.3 | +45% |
| 2023 | $276.3 | $334.9 | +21% |
| 2024 | $334.9 | $419.3 | +25% |
| 2025 | $419.3 | $282.4 | -33% |
| 2026 YTD | $282.4 | $270.0 | -4.4% |
ERIE has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 4.4% so far in 2026.
JPM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $139.1 | $124.5 | -11% |
| 2021 | $124.5 | $157.3 | +26% |
| 2022 | $157.3 | $131.3 | -17% |
| 2023 | $131.3 | $170.1 | +30% |
| 2024 | $170.1 | $241.2 | +42% |
| 2025 | $241.2 | $327.9 | +36% |
| 2026 YTD | $327.9 | $342.8 | +4.5% |
JPM has the edge over ERIE on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.