DLTR

Dollar Tree, Inc.

64
Fundamentals59/ 100
Valuation67/ 100
Upside potential68/ 100
Risk potential16/ 100

DLTR's fundamentals are mixed, but it looks cheap: trading at 17x earnings, below its usual 22x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth.

DLTR Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Healthy
Healthy
Strong

DLTR's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.

DLTR PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE7.8x16x23x31x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE7.8x16x23x31x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap17x$139-1.9%
Current17x$141—
Forward19x$141—
Fair22x$176+25%
Expensive26x$212+50%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

DLTR's PE is in its cheap range at 17x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 19x.

DLTR Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Deteriorating
Strong growth
Growth
Improving
Moderate
Moderate

Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for DLTR, with profitability improving.

DLTR Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+34%$188.95
Downside-16%$118.82

Calculated from the latest close: $141.27 on Nov 12.

DLTR's one-year upside scenario is about twice its downside: +34% against −16%.

DLTR Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $5.27Q1 2024: $-4.55Q2 2024: $-4.52Q3 2024: $-4.81Q4 2024: $-4.70Q1 2025: $-14.09Q2 2025: $-13.86Q3 2025: $-13.57Q4 2025: $-13.45Q1 2026: $6.22Q2 2026: $6.37Q3 2026: $8.16Forward: $7.45
Q4 2023: $5.27Q1 2024: $-4.55Q2 2024: $-4.52Q3 2024: $-4.81Q4 2024: $-4.70Q1 2025: $-14.09Q2 2025: $-13.86Q3 2025: $-13.57Q4 2025: $-13.45Q1 2026: $6.22Q2 2026: $6.37Q3 2026: $8.16Forward: $7.45
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$7.45-8.7%
Q3 2026$8.16+$21.73
Q2 2026$6.37+$20.23
Q1 2026$6.22+$20.31
Q4 2025-$13.45-$8.75
Q3 2025-$13.57-$8.76
Q2 2025-$13.86-$9.34
Q1 2025-$14.09-$9.54
Q4 2024-$4.70-189%

DLTR has returned to profit: it earned $8.16 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.

DLTR Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $7.3BQ1 2024: $8.6BQ2 2024: $7.6BQ3 2024: $7.4BQ4 2024: $7.6BQ1 2025: $5BQ2 2025: $4.6BQ3 2025: $4.6BQ4 2025: $4.8BQ1 2026: $5.5BQ2 2026: $5BQ3 2026: $4.9B
Q4 2023: $7.3BQ1 2024: $8.6BQ2 2024: $7.6BQ3 2024: $7.4BQ4 2024: $7.6BQ1 2025: $5BQ2 2025: $4.6BQ3 2025: $4.6BQ4 2025: $4.8BQ1 2026: $5.5BQ2 2026: $5BQ3 2026: $4.9B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$4.9B+7%
Q2 2026$5B+7.2%
Q1 2026$5.5B+9.1%
Q4 2025$4.8B-37%
Q3 2025$4.6B-38%
Q2 2025$4.6B-39%
Q1 2025$5B-42%
Q4 2024$7.6B+3.5%

DLTR's revenue is recovering but still below its 2024 peak: $4.9B last quarter, up 7% from the same quarter a year ago.

DLTR Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: −$36MQ1 2024: $471MQ2 2024: $224MQ3 2024: −$194MQ4 2024: $359MQ1 2025: $504MQ2 2025: $130MQ3 2025: $16MQ4 2025: −$57MQ1 2026: $969MQ2 2026: $392MQ3 2026: $675M
Q4 2023: −$36MQ1 2024: $471MQ2 2024: $224MQ3 2024: −$194MQ4 2024: $359MQ1 2025: $504MQ2 2025: $130MQ3 2025: $16MQ4 2025: −$57MQ1 2026: $969MQ2 2026: $392MQ3 2026: $675M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$675.2M+4228%
Q2 2026$391.5M+202%
Q1 2026$968.5M+92%
Q4 2025-$57.1M-116%
Q3 2025$15.6M+$209.4M
Q2 2025$129.7M-42%
Q1 2025$503.9M+7%
Q4 2024$359.2M+$394.8M

DLTR generated $2B in free cash flow over the past year, up 96% from the year before.

DLTR Total Shares

Q4 2023: 219MQ1 2024: 220MQ2 2024: 218MQ3 2024: 215MQ4 2024: 215MQ1 2025: 216MQ2 2025: 214MQ3 2025: 208MQ4 2025: 204MQ1 2026: 206MQ2 2026: 197MQ3 2026: 191M
Q4 2023: 219MQ1 2024: 220MQ2 2024: 218MQ3 2024: 215MQ4 2024: 215MQ1 2025: 216MQ2 2025: 214MQ3 2025: 208MQ4 2025: 204MQ1 2026: 206MQ2 2026: 197MQ3 2026: 191M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly-3.3%-6.5M shares
1 year-8.1%-16.9M shares
3 years-13%-29.6M shares
5 years-17%-38.6M shares
Available history-20%-46.6M shares

DLTR has 191M diluted shares, down 8.1% from a year ago, with $1.8B in buybacks over the past year.

DLTR Net Leverage

Q1 2026: 0.7x
Q1 2026: 0.7x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q1 20260.7xVery low

DLTR's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).

DLTR Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI64.0Neutral
Stochastic73.9Neutral

DLTR's weekly RSI is 64 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 74 (neutral).

DLTR PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector

MetricDLTRSector medianRelative
PE17x19x11% below
PE %1818Same percentile

DLTR is trading at 17x earnings, a 11% discount to the Consumer Defensive sector's median of 19x.

DLTR Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$125.113% above
20 week MA$125.213% above
50 week MA$119.418% above
100 week MA$104.635% above
200 week MA$112.326% above

DLTR has climbed back above all five of its weekly moving averages, and it's now 26% above its 200-week average.

DLTR Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$92.8$109.0+17%
2021$109.0$137.0+26%
2022$137.0$141.9+3.6%
2023$141.9$142.1+0.1%
2024$142.1$76.0-47%
2025$76.0$124.0+63%
2026 YTD$124.0$141.3+14%

DLTR has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 14% so far in 2026.

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