CVS
CVS Health Corporation
CVS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over CVS overall, supported by stronger fundamentals.
CVS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
CVS's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue and balance sheet are stable.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CVS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $89.79 | — |
| Cheap | 11x | $97.03 | +8.1% |
| Forward | 11x | $89.79 | — |
| Fair | 16x | $137 | +53% |
| Expensive | 29x | $254 | +182% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CVS has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
CVS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CVS, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over CVS on the outlook, with more favorable valuation and profitability expectations.
CVS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $8.47 | -1.6% |
| Q3 2026 | $8.60 | +2163% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.79 | +5.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.28 | -46% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.39 | -62% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.38 | -90% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.58 | -36% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.19 | -26% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.66 | -43% |
CVS's earnings per share have jumped to their highest in seven years: $8.60 over the past year, up from $0.38 the year before.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.83 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over CVS on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CVS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $108.4B | +5.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $106.1B | +7.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $100.4B | +6.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $105.7B | +8.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $102.9B | +7.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $98.9B | +8.4% |
| Q1 2025 | $94.6B | +7% |
| Q4 2024 | $97.7B | +4.2% |
CVS's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since late 2020: $108B last quarter, up 5.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.3% | +6.4 points |
| Q2 2026 | 4.4% | +2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 4.7% | +1.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 2% | -0.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | -3.1% | -4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 2.4% | -0.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 3.6% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.4% | -1.2 points |
CVS's operating margin was 3.3% last quarter, up 6.4 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over CVS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over CVS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CVS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.9B | +3887% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.7B | +338% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.4B | -11% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.6B | +139% |
| Q3 2025 | $98M | +$1.5B |
| Q2 2025 | $1.3B | -47% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.8B | -9.2% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | +$4.6B |
CVS generated $15.6B in free cash flow over the past year, up 147% from the year before.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over CVS on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CVS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.3% | +4M shares |
| 1 year | +1.7% | +22M shares |
| 3 years | +0.1% | +1M shares |
| 5 years | -2.9% | -38M shares |
| Available history | -1.1% | -14M shares |
CVS has 1.3B diluted shares, up 1.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | $1M |
| Q2 2024 | $3M |
| Q1 2024 | $3B |
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over CVS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
CVS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.5x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 3.9x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 5.1x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 6.1x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 6.1x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 4.0x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 3.8x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 4.6x | High |
CVS's net debt is about 2.5 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 6.1 years a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY has the edge over CVS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CVS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 48.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 35.1 | Neutral |
CVS's weekly RSI is 49 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 35 (neutral).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
CVS PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | CVS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 9 | 29 | 20 pts below |
CVS has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
CVS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $88.9 | 1% above |
| 20 week MA | $95.0 | 5.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $87.6 | 2.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $77.0 | 17% above |
| 200 week MA | $72.9 | 23% above |
CVS's trend is mixed: it's above four of its five weekly moving averages, and 23% above its 200-week average.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY has the edge over CVS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CVS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $74.4 | $68.0 | -8.6% |
| 2021 | $68.0 | $101.3 | +49% |
| 2022 | $101.3 | $93.6 | -7.6% |
| 2023 | $93.6 | $79.0 | -16% |
| 2024 | $79.0 | $44.5 | -44% |
| 2025 | $44.5 | $79.6 | +79% |
| 2026 YTD | $79.6 | $89.8 | +13% |
CVS has finished lower in four of the last six years. It's up 13% so far in 2026.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has the edge over CVS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.