CRWD

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.

63
Fundamentals83/ 100
Valuation32/ 100
Upside potential65/ 100
Risk potential26/ 100

CRWD offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.

IBM

International Business Machines Corporation

65
Fundamentals71/ 100
Valuation57/ 100
Upside potential62/ 100
Risk potential15/ 100

IBM has a slight edge over CRWD overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.

CRWD Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Healthy
Stable
Strong
Unavailable

CRWD's revenue and cash flow are currently healthy, and its profitability is stable. There isn't enough data to rate its balance sheet.

IBM Fundamentals

MetricStatus
Stable
Strong
Strong
Under pressure

IBM's profitability and cash flow are currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.

CRWD PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE1144x2288x3432x4577x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE1144x2288x3432x4577x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Forward153x$230—
Cheap451x$27.04-88%
Fair715x$42.92-81%
Expensive3,337x$200-13%
Current3,678x$230—

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

CRWD's PE is in its expensive range at 3678x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 153x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.

IBM PE Valuation

CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE28x56x85x113x
CHEAPFAIREXPENSIVE28x56x85x113x
LevelPEPriceVs current
Cheap17x$194-21%
Forward19x$245—
Current21x$245—
Fair23x$274+12%
Expensive46x$538+120%

Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.

IBM has the edge over CRWD in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.

CRWD Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Strongly improving
Strong growth
Strong growth
Improving
Broad
High

CRWD has the edge over IBM on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.

IBM Forward outlook

MetricOutlook
Improving
Growth
Stable
Improving
Moderate
Moderate

Analysts expect IBM's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.

CRWD Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+48%$341.14
Downside-26%$170.12

Calculated from the latest close: $229.87 on Nov 12.

CRWD has a better modeled risk to reward balance than IBM, with more potential upside relative to its potential downside.

IBM Risk to reward

ScenarioChangePrice
Upside+26%$307.43
Downside-15%$206.85

Calculated from the latest close: $244.67 on Nov 12.

IBM trails CRWD on modeled risk to reward, with less potential upside relative to its potential downside.

CRWD Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $-0.02Q1 2024: $0.09Q2 2024: $0.14Q3 2024: $0.17Q4 2024: $0.13Q1 2025: $-0.02Q2 2025: $-0.17Q3 2025: $-0.30Q4 2025: $-0.32Q1 2026: $-0.16Q2 2026: $-0.03Q3 2026: $0.06Forward: $1.50
Q4 2023: $-0.02Q1 2024: $0.09Q2 2024: $0.14Q3 2024: $0.17Q4 2024: $0.13Q1 2025: $-0.02Q2 2025: $-0.17Q3 2025: $-0.30Q4 2025: $-0.32Q1 2026: $-0.16Q2 2026: $-0.03Q3 2026: $0.06Forward: $1.50
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$1.50+2400%
Q3 2026$0.06+$0.36
Q2 2026-$0.03+$0.14
Q1 2026-$0.16-$0.14
Q4 2025-$0.32-346%
Q3 2025-$0.30-276%
Q2 2025-$0.17-221%
Q1 2025-$0.02-122%
Q4 2024$0.13+$0.15

CRWD has returned to profit: it earned $0.06 per share over the past year, after losing money the year before.

IBM Earnings Per Share

Q4 2023: $8.14Q1 2024: $8.85Q2 2024: $9.09Q3 2024: $6.89Q4 2024: $6.43Q1 2025: $5.83Q2 2025: $6.18Q3 2025: $8.38Q4 2025: $11.17Q1 2026: $11.33Q2 2026: $11.29Q3 2026: $11.75Forward: $13.06
Q4 2023: $8.14Q1 2024: $8.85Q2 2024: $9.09Q3 2024: $6.89Q4 2024: $6.43Q1 2025: $5.83Q2 2025: $6.18Q3 2025: $8.38Q4 2025: $11.17Q1 2026: $11.33Q2 2026: $11.29Q3 2026: $11.75Forward: $13.06
QuarterTTM EPSYoY
Forward$13.06+11%
Q3 2026$11.75+40%
Q2 2026$11.29+83%
Q1 2026$11.33+94%
Q4 2025$11.17+74%
Q3 2025$8.38+22%
Q2 2025$6.18-32%
Q1 2025$5.83-34%
Q4 2024$6.43-21%

IBM has the edge over CRWD on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.

CRWD Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $786MQ1 2024: $845MQ2 2024: $921MQ3 2024: $964MQ4 2024: $1BQ1 2025: $1.1BQ2 2025: $1.1BQ3 2025: $1.2BQ4 2025: $1.2BQ1 2026: $1.3BQ2 2026: $1.4BQ3 2026: $1.5B
Q4 2023: $786MQ1 2024: $845MQ2 2024: $921MQ3 2024: $964MQ4 2024: $1BQ1 2025: $1.1BQ2 2025: $1.1BQ3 2025: $1.2BQ4 2025: $1.2BQ1 2026: $1.3BQ2 2026: $1.4BQ3 2026: $1.5B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$1.5B+26%
Q2 2026$1.4B+26%
Q1 2026$1.3B+23%
Q4 2025$1.2B+22%
Q3 2025$1.2B+21%
Q2 2025$1.1B+20%
Q1 2025$1.1B+25%
Q4 2024$1B+29%

CRWD has the edge over IBM on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

IBM Quarterly Revenue

Q4 2023: $17.4BQ1 2024: $14.5BQ2 2024: $15.8BQ3 2024: $15BQ4 2024: $17.6BQ1 2025: $14.5BQ2 2025: $17BQ3 2025: $16.3BQ4 2025: $19.7BQ1 2026: $15.9BQ2 2026: $17.2BQ3 2026: $17.1B
Q4 2023: $17.4BQ1 2024: $14.5BQ2 2024: $15.8BQ3 2024: $15BQ4 2024: $17.6BQ1 2025: $14.5BQ2 2025: $17BQ3 2025: $16.3BQ4 2025: $19.7BQ1 2026: $15.9BQ2 2026: $17.2BQ3 2026: $17.1B
QuarterRevenueYoY
Q3 2026$17.1B+4.7%
Q2 2026$17.2B+1.1%
Q1 2026$15.9B+9.5%
Q4 2025$19.7B+12%
Q3 2025$16.3B+9.1%
Q2 2025$17B+7.7%
Q1 2025$14.5B+0.5%
Q4 2024$17.6B+1%

IBM's revenue has grown year over year for 13 quarters in a row: $17.1B last quarter, up 4.7% from the same quarter a year ago.

CRWD Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $252MQ1 2024: $294MQ2 2024: $334MQ3 2024: $287MQ4 2024: $247MQ1 2025: $259MQ2 2025: $298MQ3 2025: $302MQ4 2025: $314MQ1 2026: $395MQ2 2026: $493MQ3 2026: $406M
Q4 2023: $252MQ1 2024: $294MQ2 2024: $334MQ3 2024: $287MQ4 2024: $247MQ1 2025: $259MQ2 2025: $298MQ3 2025: $302MQ4 2025: $314MQ1 2026: $395MQ2 2026: $493MQ3 2026: $406M
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$405.9M+34%
Q2 2026$493.3M+65%
Q1 2026$395.4M+53%
Q4 2025$314.1M+27%
Q3 2025$302.3M+5.2%
Q2 2025$298.4M-11%
Q1 2025$258.5M-12%
Q4 2024$247.4M-1.9%

CRWD has the edge over IBM on cash flow, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.

IBM Free Cash Flow

Q4 2023: $4.2BQ1 2024: $3.9BQ2 2024: $1.8BQ3 2024: $2.6BQ4 2024: $4BQ1 2025: $4.1BQ2 2025: $1.5BQ3 2025: $2.8BQ4 2025: $3.7BQ1 2026: $4.9BQ2 2026: $2.4BQ3 2026: $3.7B
Q4 2023: $4.2BQ1 2024: $3.9BQ2 2024: $1.8BQ3 2024: $2.6BQ4 2024: $4BQ1 2025: $4.1BQ2 2025: $1.5BQ3 2025: $2.8BQ4 2025: $3.7BQ1 2026: $4.9BQ2 2026: $2.4BQ3 2026: $3.7B
QuarterFree cash flowYoY
Q3 2026$3.7B+31%
Q2 2026$2.4B+59%
Q1 2026$4.9B+20%
Q4 2025$3.7B-9.2%
Q3 2025$2.8B+8.9%
Q2 2025$1.5B-19%
Q1 2025$4.1B+5%
Q4 2024$4B-3.3%

IBM's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $14.7B over the past year, up 18% from the year before.

CRWD Total Shares

Q4 2023: 975MQ1 2024: 975MQ2 2024: 1BQ3 2024: 1BQ4 2024: 982MQ1 2025: 979MQ2 2025: 994MQ3 2025: 1000MQ4 2025: 1BQ1 2026: 1BQ2 2026: 1BQ3 2026: 1B
Q4 2023: 975MQ1 2024: 975MQ2 2024: 1BQ3 2024: 1BQ4 2024: 982MQ1 2025: 979MQ2 2025: 994MQ3 2025: 1000MQ4 2025: 1BQ1 2026: 1BQ2 2026: 1BQ3 2026: 1B
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly+1.3%+12.9M shares
1 year+4.5%+44.8M shares
3 years+7.8%+75.9M shares
5 years+15%+139M shares
Available history+28%+228M shares

CRWD has 1B diluted shares, up 4.5% from a year ago.

IBM Total Shares

Q4 2023: 922MQ1 2024: 933MQ2 2024: 934MQ3 2024: 924MQ4 2024: 937MQ1 2025: 945MQ2 2025: 948MQ3 2025: 949MQ4 2025: 949MQ1 2026: 952MQ2 2026: 953MQ3 2026: 954M
Q4 2023: 922MQ1 2024: 933MQ2 2024: 934MQ3 2024: 924MQ4 2024: 937MQ1 2025: 945MQ2 2025: 948MQ3 2025: 949MQ4 2025: 949MQ1 2026: 952MQ2 2026: 953MQ3 2026: 954M
PeriodChange %Net change
Quarterly0%+260K shares
1 year+0.5%+4.6M shares
3 years+3.2%+29.9M shares
5 years+5.3%+47.6M shares
Available history+2.1%+19.6M shares

IBM has the edge over CRWD on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.

CRWD Net Leverage

IBM Net Leverage

Q4 2023: 3.8xQ1 2024: 3.8xQ2 2024: 3.6xQ3 2024: 4.3xQ4 2024: 4.4xQ1 2025: 5.6xQ2 2025: 5.5xQ3 2025: 4.2xQ4 2025: 3.5xQ1 2026: 4.0xQ2 2026: 3.9xQ3 2026: 3.9x
Q4 2023: 3.8xQ1 2024: 3.8xQ2 2024: 3.6xQ3 2024: 4.3xQ4 2024: 4.4xQ1 2025: 5.6xQ2 2025: 5.5xQ3 2025: 4.2xQ4 2025: 3.5xQ1 2026: 4.0xQ2 2026: 3.9xQ3 2026: 3.9x
QuarterNet LeverageStatus
Q3 20263.9xElevated
Q2 20263.9xElevated
Q1 20264.0xHigh
Q4 20253.5xElevated
Q3 20254.2xHigh
Q2 20255.5xHigh
Q1 20255.6xHigh
Q4 20244.4xHigh

IBM's net debt is about 3.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.2 years a year ago.

CRWD Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI55.1Neutral
Stochastic49.1Neutral

CRWD's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 49 (neutral).

IBM Weekly Momentum

MetricValueStatus
RSI50.1Neutral
Stochastic74.8Neutral

IBM's weekly RSI is 50 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).

CRWD PE vs Technology Sector

MetricCRWDSector medianRelative
PE3,678x28x13,101% above
PE %913556 pts above

CRWD is trading at 3678x earnings, a 13101% premium to the Technology sector's median of 28x.

IBM PE vs Technology Sector

MetricIBMSector medianRelative
PE21x28x25% below
PE %31354 pts below

IBM has the edge over CRWD on valuation relative to its sector.

CRWD Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$247.47.1% below
20 week MA$221.93.6% above
50 week MA$163.041% above
100 week MA$136.069% above
200 week MA$97.5136% above

CRWD has the edge over IBM on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.

IBM Weekly Moving Averages

Moving averageMA priceRelative
8 week MA$238.62.6% above
20 week MA$239.32.2% above
50 week MA$256.64.6% below
100 week MA$258.55.3% below
200 week MA$212.315% above

IBM's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 15% above its 200-week average.

CRWD Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$12.2$55.3+352%
2021$55.3$52.9-4.3%
2022$52.9$25.5-52%
2023$25.5$63.8+150%
2024$63.8$88.8+39%
2025$88.8$120.3+36%
2026 YTD$120.3$229.9+91%

CRWD has the edge over IBM on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.

IBM Yearly ROI

YearStart priceEnd priceROI
2020$129.3$119.2-7.8%
2021$119.2$130.6+9.6%
2022$130.6$141.7+8.4%
2023$141.7$163.6+15%
2024$163.6$222.8+36%
2025$222.8$305.1+37%
2026 YTD$305.1$244.7-20%

IBM has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 20% so far in 2026.

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