COP
ConocoPhillips
COP's fundamentals are strong: it turned 34% of its revenue into free cash flow and revenue grew 13%. At 15x earnings, it's trading above its usual 12x. Analysts expect strong earnings growth, though they disagree widely on how much.
COP Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Strong |
COP's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
COP PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.2x | $88.09 | -37% |
| Fair | 12x | $119 | -15% |
| Forward | 12x | $140 | — |
| Current | 15x | $140 | — |
| Expensive | 19x | $178 | +27% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
COP's PE is in its expensive range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
COP Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for COP, with profitability improving. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
COP Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $12.04 | +26% |
| Q3 2026 | $9.53 | +34% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.57 | +1.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.90 | -25% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.35 | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | $7.09 | -16% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.47 | -17% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.89 | -11% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.81 | -14% |
COP's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $9.53 over the past year, against $14.57 in late 2022.
COP Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $19.4B | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $19.2B | +37% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.8B | -4.6% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.4B | -5.9% |
| Q3 2025 | $15B | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $14B | +2.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $16.5B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $14.2B | -3.3% |
COP's revenue has picked up after two years of holding roughly level: $19.4B last quarter, up 29% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 31% | +11 points |
| Q2 2026 | 32% | +10 points |
| Q1 2026 | 21% | -5.7 points |
| Q4 2025 | 17% | N/A |
| Q3 2025 | 19% | N/A |
| Q2 2025 | 22% | N/A |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | N/A |
| Q4 2021 | 27% | +45 points |
COP's operating margin was 31% last quarter, up 11 points from the same quarter a year ago.
COP Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $7.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.4B | +113% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.3B | -30% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.3B | -3.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.9B | +2% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.5B | -29% |
| Q1 2025 | $6.1B | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $4.5B | -15% |
COP generated $23.2B in free cash flow over the past year, up 17% from the year before.
COP Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.5% | -18.4M shares |
| 1 year | -4.1% | -51M shares |
| 3 years | -0.3% | -3.9M shares |
| 5 years | -12% | -157M shares |
COP has 1.2B diluted shares, down 4.1% from a year ago, with $6.4B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $2B |
| Q1 2026 | $1B |
| Q4 2025 | $1B |
| Q3 2025 | $1.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $2B |
COP spent $6.4B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 8.1% from the year before.
COP Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2021 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q3 2021 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q2 2021 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2021 | 2.8x | Moderate |
COP's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
COP Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 57.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 71.1 | Neutral |
COP's weekly RSI is 57 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 71 (neutral).
COP PE vs Energy Sector
| Metric | COP | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 12% above |
| PE % | 71 | 61 | 10 pts above |
COP is trading at 15x earnings, a 12% premium to the Energy sector's median of 13x.
COP Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $139.5 | 0.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $129.9 | 7.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $118.8 | 18% above |
| 100 week MA | $106.2 | 32% above |
| 200 week MA | $109.3 | 28% above |
COP has climbed back above all five of its weekly moving averages, and it's now 28% above its 200-week average.
COP Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $65.0 | $39.5 | -39% |
| 2021 | $39.5 | $71.2 | +80% |
| 2022 | $71.2 | $117.1 | +64% |
| 2023 | $117.1 | $116.1 | -0.8% |
| 2024 | $116.1 | $96.9 | -16% |
| 2025 | $96.9 | $91.5 | -5.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $91.5 | $140.1 | +53% |
COP has finished three years in a row lower, and it's up 53% so far in 2026.