CON
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.
CON offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
UNH
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated
UNH has a slight edge over CON overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
CON Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
CON's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
UNH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy |
UNH's cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue and profitability are stable.
CON PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $26.73 | -38% |
| Fair | 18x | $30.20 | -30% |
| Expensive | 22x | $37.55 | -13% |
| Forward | 23x | $42.99 | — |
| Current | 25x | $42.99 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CON has the edge over UNH in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
UNH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 18x | $405 | — |
| Cheap | 19x | $325 | -20% |
| Fair | 23x | $410 | +1.2% |
| Current | 23x | $405 | — |
| Expensive | 30x | $526 | +30% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
UNH's PE is in its fair range at 23x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 18x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
CON Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
CON has the edge over UNH on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
UNH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Moderate | |
| Low |
Analysts expect UNH's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CON Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.87 | +11% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.69 | +40% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.55 | +29% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.39 | +3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.30 | -9.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.21 | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.20 | +7.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.35 | +30% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.44 | +41% |
CON has the edge over UNH on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
UNH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $22.65 | +29% |
| Q3 2026 | $17.55 | -8.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.58 | -33% |
| Q1 2026 | $13.28 | -44% |
| Q4 2025 | $13.23 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $19.17 | +25% |
| Q2 2025 | $23.09 | +53% |
| Q1 2025 | $23.89 | +46% |
| Q4 2024 | $15.51 | -35% |
UNH's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $17.55 over the past year, against $23.89 in early 2025.
CON Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $622.1M | +8.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $606M | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $569.6M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $539.1M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $572.8M | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $550.8M | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $500.8M | +7.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $465M | +5.5% |
CON has the edge over UNH on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +0.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 13% | +0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | -1.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | +1.6 points |
CON has the edge over UNH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
UNH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $112.7B | -0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $112B | +0.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $111.7B | +2% |
| Q4 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $113.2B | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $111.6B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $109.6B | +9.8% |
| Q4 2024 | $100.8B | +6.8% |
UNH's revenue has held roughly level: $113B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.1% | +2.5 points |
| Q1 2026 | 8.1% | -0.3 points |
| Q4 2025 | 0.3% | -7.4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.8% | -4.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 4.6% | -3.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 8.3% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 7.7% | -0.4 points |
UNH's operating margin was 5.8% last quarter, up 2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CON Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $29.4M | -25% |
| Q2 2026 | $119.5M | +89% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.9M | +$14M |
| Q4 2025 | $98.5M | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $39.4M | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4M | -115% |
| Q4 2024 | $77M | +47% |
| Q3 2024 | $50.8M | +18% |
CON has the edge over UNH on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
UNH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $4.3B | -16% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.3B | +63% |
| Q1 2026 | $8.1B | +79% |
| Q4 2025 | $160M | -89% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.1B | -61% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.3B | +6.9% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.6B | +1037% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | +$7.6B |
UNH still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $22.8B over the past year.
CON Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -683K shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -1.1M shares |
| 3 years | +0.4% | +510K shares |
CON has the edge over UNH on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $34.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $11M |
| Q1 2026 | $15M |
| Q4 2024 | $15.4M |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $5.3M |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
UNH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -4M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -6M shares |
| 3 years | -3.6% | -34M shares |
| 5 years | -5.5% | -53M shares |
| Available history | -6.6% | -64M shares |
UNH has 902M diluted shares, down 0.7% from a year ago, with $5B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.4B |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $3B |
| Q4 2024 | $5B |
UNH spent $5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 52% from the year before.
CON Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 4.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.2x | High |
| Q4 2024 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
CON's net debt is about 3.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.0 years a year ago.
UNH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 2.2x | Moderate |
| Q4 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 1.7x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 1.5x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 1.4x | Healthy |
UNH has the edge over CON on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CON Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 88.2 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 88.4 | Overbought |
CON's weekly RSI is 88 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 88 (overbought).
UNH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 56.4 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 60.0 | Neutral |
UNH's weekly RSI is 56 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 60 (neutral).
CON PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | CON | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 26x | 1.6% below |
| PE % | 99 | 54 | 45 pts above |
CON is trading at 25x earnings, in line with the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
UNH PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | UNH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 23x | 26x | 11% below |
| PE % | 47 | 29 | 18 pts above |
UNH has the edge over CON on valuation relative to its sector.
CON Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $38.9 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $35.7 | 21% above |
| 50 week MA | $28.1 | 53% above |
| 100 week MA | $24.6 | 75% above |
CON has stronger trend alignment. CON is above 4 of 4 weekly averages versus UNH above 4 of 5.
UNH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $394.2 | 2.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $400.5 | 1.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $361.2 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $376.0 | 7.8% above |
| 200 week MA | $446.6 | 9.3% below |
UNH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-, 20-, 50- and 100-week averages, but 9.3% below its 200-week average.
CON Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $22.9 | $20.4 | -11% |
| 2025 | $20.4 | $20.0 | -1.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.0 | $43.0 | +115% |
CON has the edge over UNH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
UNH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $296.0 | $340.8 | +15% |
| 2021 | $340.8 | $495.4 | +45% |
| 2022 | $495.4 | $531.3 | +7.3% |
| 2023 | $531.3 | $526.5 | -0.9% |
| 2024 | $526.5 | $510.0 | -3.1% |
| 2025 | $510.0 | $331.8 | -35% |
| 2026 YTD | $331.8 | $405.1 | +22% |
UNH has finished three years in a row lower, and it's up 22% so far in 2026.