CON
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.
CON has the edge over NVO overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and lower modeled downside.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
CON Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
CON's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
CON PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $26.73 | -38% |
| Fair | 18x | $30.20 | -30% |
| Expensive | 22x | $37.55 | -13% |
| Forward | 23x | $42.99 | — |
| Current | 25x | $42.99 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CON's PE is in its expensive range at 25x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 23x next year's earnings.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO has the edge over CON in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CON Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
CON has the edge over NVO on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CON Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.87 | +11% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.69 | +40% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.55 | +29% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.39 | +3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.30 | -9.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.21 | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.20 | +7.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.35 | +30% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.44 | +41% |
CON earned $1.69 per share over the past year, up 40% from the year before.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO's earnings per share have climbed steadily: $3.89 over the past year, up 4.9% from the year before, and higher year over year every quarter since late 2020.
CON Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $622.1M | +8.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $606M | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $569.6M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $539.1M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $572.8M | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $550.8M | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $500.8M | +7.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $465M | +5.5% |
CON's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2024: $622M last quarter, up 8.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +0.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 13% | +0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | -1.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | +1.6 points |
CON's operating margin was 19% last quarter, up 2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO's revenue is growing: $11.7B last quarter, up 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over CON on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CON Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $29.4M | -25% |
| Q2 2026 | $119.5M | +89% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.9M | +$14M |
| Q4 2025 | $98.5M | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $39.4M | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4M | -115% |
| Q4 2024 | $77M | +47% |
| Q3 2024 | $50.8M | +18% |
CON has the edge over NVO on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $7.3B over the past year.
CON Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -683K shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -1.1M shares |
| 3 years | +0.4% | +510K shares |
CON has the edge over NVO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $34.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $11M |
| Q1 2026 | $15M |
| Q4 2024 | $15.4M |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $5.3M |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has 4.4B diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
CON Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 4.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.2x | High |
| Q4 2024 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
CON's net debt is about 3.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.0 years a year ago.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO has the edge over CON on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CON Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 88.2 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 88.4 | Overbought |
CON's weekly RSI is 88 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 88 (overbought).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
CON PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | CON | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 26x | 1.6% below |
| PE % | 99 | 54 | 45 pts above |
CON is trading at 25x earnings, in line with the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO has the edge over CON on valuation relative to its sector.
CON Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $38.9 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $35.7 | 21% above |
| 50 week MA | $28.1 | 53% above |
| 100 week MA | $24.6 | 75% above |
CON has stronger trend alignment. CON is above 4 of 4 weekly averages versus NVO above 1 of 5.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
CON Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $22.9 | $20.4 | -11% |
| 2025 | $20.4 | $20.0 | -1.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.0 | $43.0 | +115% |
CON has the edge over NVO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 22% so far in 2026.