CON
Concentra Group Holdings Parent, Inc.
CON's outlook is improving, though it still trails on the overall score.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over CON overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger modeled upside.
CON Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
CON's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CON PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 16x | $26.73 | -38% |
| Fair | 18x | $30.20 | -30% |
| Expensive | 22x | $37.55 | -13% |
| Forward | 23x | $42.99 | — |
| Current | 25x | $42.99 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CON has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
CON Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CON, with profitability improving.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for LLY, with profitability improving.
CON Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.87 | +11% |
| Q3 2026 | $1.69 | +40% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.55 | +29% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.39 | +3% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.30 | -9.7% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.21 | +13% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.20 | +7.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.35 | +30% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.44 | +41% |
CON earned $1.69 per share over the past year, up 40% from the year before.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.83 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over CON on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CON Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $622.1M | +8.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $606M | +10% |
| Q1 2026 | $569.6M | +14% |
| Q4 2025 | $539.1M | +16% |
| Q3 2025 | $572.8M | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $550.8M | +15% |
| Q1 2025 | $500.8M | +7.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $465M | +5.5% |
CON's revenue has grown year over year every quarter since early 2024: $622M last quarter, up 8.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 19% | +2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 19% | +2.7 points |
| Q1 2026 | 17% | +0.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 13% | +0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 16% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 16% | -1.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | -0.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 13% | +1.6 points |
CON's operating margin was 19% last quarter, up 2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over CON on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over CON on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CON Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $29.4M | -25% |
| Q2 2026 | $119.5M | +89% |
| Q1 2026 | $9.9M | +$14M |
| Q4 2025 | $98.5M | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $39.4M | -22% |
| Q1 2025 | -$4M | -115% |
| Q4 2024 | $77M | +47% |
| Q3 2024 | $50.8M | +18% |
CON generated $257M in free cash flow over the past year, up 47% from the year before.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over CON on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CON Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -683K shares |
| 1 year | -0.8% | -1.1M shares |
| 3 years | +0.4% | +510K shares |
CON has the edge over LLY on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $34.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $11M |
| Q1 2026 | $15M |
| Q4 2024 | $15.4M |
| Q1 2024 | — |
| Q4 2023 | $5.3M |
| Q3 2023 | — |
| Q2 2023 | — |
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has 893M diluted shares, down 0.6% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
CON Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.0x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 4.0x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 4.2x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.2x | High |
| Q4 2024 | -0.5x | Net Cash |
CON's net debt is about 3.0 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 4.0 years a year ago.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY has the edge over CON on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CON Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 88.2 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 88.4 | Overbought |
CON's weekly RSI is 88 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 88 (overbought).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
CON PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | CON | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 25x | 26x | 1.6% below |
| PE % | 99 | 54 | 45 pts above |
CON has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
CON Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $38.9 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $35.7 | 21% above |
| 50 week MA | $28.1 | 53% above |
| 100 week MA | $24.6 | 75% above |
LLY has stronger trend alignment. CON is above 4 of 4 weekly averages versus LLY above 5 of 5.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
CON Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | $22.9 | $20.4 | -11% |
| 2025 | $20.4 | $20.0 | -1.8% |
| 2026 YTD | $20.0 | $43.0 | +115% |
CON has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.