COF
Capital One Financial Corporation
COF has the edge over MS overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
COF Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
COF's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like COF.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
COF PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.4x | $96.85 | -50% |
| Forward | 8.4x | $194 | — |
| Fair | 11x | $195 | +0.7% |
| Current | 11x | $194 | — |
| Expensive | 45x | $817 | +322% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
COF's PE is in its fair range at 11x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 8.4x next year's earnings.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over COF in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
COF Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for COF, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
COF Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $22.94 | +27% |
| Q3 2026 | $18.01 | +660% |
| Q2 2026 | $17.23 | +784% |
| Q1 2026 | $3.92 | -67% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.03 | -65% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.37 | -78% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.95 | -82% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.91 | -6.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.59 | -3% |
COF's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $18.01 over the past year, against $26.94 in late 2021.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over COF on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
COF Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $16.3B | +6.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $15.9B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $15.2B | +52% |
| Q4 2025 | $15.6B | +53% |
| Q3 2025 | $15.4B | +53% |
| Q2 2025 | $12.5B | +31% |
| Q1 2025 | $10B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $10.2B | +7.2% |
COF has the edge over MS on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 28% | -0.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 24% | +72 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +0.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 13% | -0.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 29% | +6.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | -47% | -54 points |
| Q1 2025 | 17% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2024 | 14% | +4.5 points |
COF's operating margin was 28% last quarter, down 0.6 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over COF on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
COF Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $5.3B | -39% |
| Q2 2026 | $8.1B | +43% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.5B | +27% |
| Q4 2025 | $7.4B | +253% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.8B | +43% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.7B | -4.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $4.3B | +56% |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B | -69% |
COF has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
COF Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.9% | -11.6M shares |
| 1 year | -4.7% | -30M shares |
| 3 years | +59% | +226M shares |
| 5 years | +38% | +169M shares |
| Available history | +30% | +140M shares |
COF has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.7B |
| Q2 2026 | $2.7B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.8B |
| Q4 2025 | $2.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $1B |
| Q2 2025 | $167M |
| Q1 2025 | $375M |
| Q4 2024 | $161M |
COF spent $10.7B buying back its own shares over the past year, about six times what it spent the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
COF Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 5.1x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 6.4x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 7.7x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 16.4x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 4.7x | High |
COF has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
COF Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 42.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 26.9 | Neutral |
COF's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
COF PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | COF | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 13x | 17% below |
| PE % | 49 | 63 | 14 pts below |
COF has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
COF Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $199.7 | 3.1% below |
| 20 week MA | $206.7 | 6.3% below |
| 50 week MA | $206.3 | 6.2% below |
| 100 week MA | $203.1 | 4.7% below |
| 200 week MA | $164.7 | 18% above |
COF has fallen below most of its moving averages, though it's still 18% above its 200-week average.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS has the edge over COF on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
COF Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $103.0 | $97.3 | -5.5% |
| 2021 | $97.3 | $145.1 | +49% |
| 2022 | $145.1 | $90.7 | -37% |
| 2023 | $90.7 | $131.1 | +45% |
| 2024 | $131.1 | $180.2 | +37% |
| 2025 | $180.2 | $249.3 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $249.3 | $193.6 | -22% |
COF has finished higher in four of the last six years. It's down 22% so far in 2026.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has the edge over COF on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.