CNOB
ConnectOne Bancorp, Inc.
CNOB has a slight edge over MS overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CNOB Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
CNOB's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like CNOB.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
CNOB PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.8x | $22.45 | -32% |
| Forward | 9.3x | $32.78 | — |
| Fair | 10x | $29.90 | -8.8% |
| Current | 11x | $32.78 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $41.53 | +27% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CNOB has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
CNOB Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CNOB, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
CNOB Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $3.51 | +23% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.86 | +131% |
| Q2 2026 | $3.05 | +251% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.73 | -6.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.50 | -15% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.24 | -29% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.87 | -53% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.85 | -2.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.77 | -14% |
CNOB earned $2.86 per share over the past year, up 131% from the year before. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over CNOB on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CNOB Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $102.8M | -15% |
| Q2 2026 | $121.6M | +45% |
| Q1 2026 | $115.6M | +65% |
| Q4 2025 | $112.6M | +65% |
| Q3 2025 | $121.4M | +85% |
| Q2 2025 | $84.1M | +28% |
| Q1 2025 | $70.2M | +9.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $68.5M | +3.7% |
CNOB's revenue is growing: $103M last quarter, down 15% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 41% | -5.9 points |
| Q2 2026 | 48% | +78 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +6.4 points |
| Q4 2025 | 47% | +8.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 47% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -30% | -69 points |
| Q1 2025 | 39% | +3.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 39% | 0 points |
CNOB has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS's revenue has grown year over year for 14 quarters in a row: $20.3B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CNOB Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $84.9M | +150% |
| Q2 2026 | $33.7M | +427% |
| Q1 2026 | $14M | -4.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $46.1M | +54% |
| Q3 2025 | $33.9M | +$49.5M |
| Q2 2025 | $6.4M | -71% |
| Q1 2025 | $14.6M | -28% |
| Q4 2024 | $30M | +21% |
CNOB has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CNOB Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +52K shares |
| 1 year | 0% | -6K shares |
| 3 years | +30% | +11.6M shares |
| 5 years | +27% | +10.6M shares |
| Available history | +27% | +10.8M shares |
CNOB has 50M diluted shares, about the same as a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.6M |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
CNOB spent $4M buying back its own shares over the past year, after none the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has the edge over CNOB on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
CNOB Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 4.3x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 4.4x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 5.7x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 5.1x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 7.9x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q4 2024 | 4.0x | Elevated |
CNOB has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CNOB Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 59.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 65.4 | Neutral |
CNOB's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 65 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
CNOB PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | CNOB | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 13x | 12% below |
| PE % | 62 | 63 | 1 pt below |
CNOB has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
CNOB Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $31.5 | 4% above |
| 20 week MA | $32.1 | 2.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $29.8 | 10% above |
| 100 week MA | $26.9 | 22% above |
| 200 week MA | $23.7 | 38% above |
CNOB has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
CNOB Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $25.6 | $19.6 | -24% |
| 2021 | $19.6 | $32.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $32.1 | $24.3 | -24% |
| 2023 | $24.3 | $22.9 | -5.9% |
| 2024 | $22.9 | $22.7 | -1.1% |
| 2025 | $22.7 | $26.9 | +19% |
| 2026 YTD | $26.9 | $32.8 | +22% |
CNOB has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.