CNO
CNO Financial Group, Inc.
CNO has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over CNO overall, supported by stronger valuation and stronger fundamentals.
CNO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
CNO's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like CNO.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
CNO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.5x | $28.30 | -51% |
| Fair | 9.1x | $39.72 | -31% |
| Forward | 11x | $57.44 | — |
| Current | 13x | $57.44 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $66.35 | +16% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CNO's PE is in its expensive range at 13x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 11x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS has the edge over CNO in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CNO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect CNO's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
MS has the edge over CNO on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
CNO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.03 | +15% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.38 | +53% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.91 | +7.4% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.49 | -13% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.23 | -40% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.86 | +15% |
| Q2 2025 | $2.71 | -30% |
| Q1 2025 | $2.86 | -17% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.74 | +55% |
CNO earned $4.38 per share over the past year, up 53% from the year before.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over CNO on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CNO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B | -8.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.3B | +12% |
| Q1 2026 | $1B | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +4.2% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.2B | +5.2% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.2B | +8% |
| Q1 2025 | $1B | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B | -6.3% |
CNO's revenue grew through 2024 and has held roughly level since: $1.1B last quarter, down 8.6% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 12% | +2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 13% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 15% | -0.7 points |
| Q3 2025 | 14% | +0.1 points |
| Q2 2025 | 9.8% | -4.2 points |
| Q1 2025 | 10% | +4 points |
| Q4 2024 | 16% | +1.2 points |
CNO's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 6.6 points from the same quarter a year ago, near the top of its range since 2019.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over CNO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS has the edge over CNO on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CNO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $242M | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $156.6M | +7.6% |
| Q1 2026 | $148.8M | +8.9% |
| Q4 2025 | $195.7M | +2.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $197.8M | -14% |
| Q2 2025 | $145.5M | +31% |
| Q1 2025 | $136.7M | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $191M | +8.1% |
CNO has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CNO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.7% | -699K shares |
| 1 year | -4.4% | -4.3M shares |
| 3 years | -18% | -20.2M shares |
| 5 years | -27% | -34.8M shares |
| Available history | -40% | -62.9M shares |
CNO has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $59.5M |
| Q2 2026 | $60.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $73.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $60.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $60.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $100.3M |
| Q1 2025 | $110.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $91.7M |
CNO spent $254M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 30% from the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
CNO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.0x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.2x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
CNO has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CNO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 63.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 74.8 | Neutral |
CNO's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 75 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
CNO PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | CNO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 13x | 0.7% above |
| PE % | 72 | 63 | 9 pts above |
CNO has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
CNO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $55.0 | 4.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $54.6 | 5.2% above |
| 50 week MA | $48.1 | 19% above |
| 100 week MA | $43.5 | 32% above |
| 200 week MA | $35.4 | 62% above |
CNO has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
CNO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $18.2 | $22.8 | +25% |
| 2021 | $22.8 | $24.0 | +5% |
| 2022 | $24.0 | $22.9 | -4.6% |
| 2023 | $22.9 | $27.9 | +22% |
| 2024 | $27.9 | $37.3 | +34% |
| 2025 | $37.3 | $43.3 | +16% |
| 2026 YTD | $43.3 | $57.4 | +33% |
CNO has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.