CMC
Commercial Metals Company
CMC's fundamentals are strong, but it looks expensive: trading at 11x earnings, above its usual 9.8x. Analysts expect earnings to hold roughly steady, though they disagree widely on how much.
CMC Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Stable |
CMC's revenue, profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its balance sheet is stable.
CMC PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 5.6x | $32.90 | -48% |
| Forward | 9.5x | $63.85 | — |
| Fair | 9.8x | $57.20 | -10% |
| Current | 11x | $63.85 | — |
| Expensive | 17x | $99.18 | +55% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CMC's PE is in its fair range at 11x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 9.5x.
CMC Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect CMC's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CMC Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $6.71 | +14% |
| Q3 2026 | $5.86 | +692% |
| Q2 2026 | $5.29 | +1606% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.47 | +645% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.86 | +248% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.74 | -82% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.31 | -94% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.60 | -90% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.11 | -83% |
CMC's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $5.86 over the past year, against $10.25 in late 2022.
CMC Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $2.7B | +26% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.5B | +23% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.1B | +22% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.1B | +11% |
| Q3 2025 | $2.1B | +5.9% |
| Q2 2025 | $2B | -2.8% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.8B | -5.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.9B | -4.7% |
CMC's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $2.7B last quarter, up 26% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 8.6% | -0.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 7.6% | +2.2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.2% | +3.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6% | +21 points |
| Q3 2025 | 9.1% | +2.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 5.4% | -2.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 2.1% | -4.3 points |
| Q4 2024 | -12% | -23 points |
CMC's operating margin was 8.6% last quarter, down 0.5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CMC Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $280.4M | +36% |
| Q2 2026 | $76.4M | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $43.6M | +$97.4M |
| Q4 2025 | $78.8M | -17% |
| Q3 2025 | $206.3M | -24% |
| Q2 2025 | $65M | -44% |
| Q1 2025 | -$53.8M | -$49M |
| Q4 2024 | $94.8M | -51% |
CMC still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2022 peak: $479M over the past year.
CMC Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +0.1% | +150K shares |
| 1 year | -1.9% | -2.2M shares |
| 3 years | -5.7% | -6.7M shares |
| 5 years | -8.3% | -10.1M shares |
| Available history | -6.6% | -7.9M shares |
CMC has 112M diluted shares, down 1.9% from a year ago, with $103M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $26.7M |
| Q2 2026 | $18.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $18.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $38.9M |
| Q3 2025 | $50M |
| Q2 2025 | $50.4M |
| Q1 2025 | $48M |
| Q4 2024 | $50.4M |
CMC spent $103M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
CMC Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.4x | Moderate |
| Q2 2026 | 2.8x | Moderate |
| Q1 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 1.1x | Healthy |
| Q4 2024 | 0.7x | Very low |
CMC's net debt is about 2.4 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), up from less than a year a year ago.
CMC Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 17.7 | Oversold |
CMC's weekly RSI is 46 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 18 (oversold).
CMC PE vs Basic Materials Sector
| Metric | CMC | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 11x | 19x | 41% below |
| PE % | 56 | 40 | 16 pts above |
CMC is trading at 11x earnings, a 41% discount to the Basic Materials sector's median of 19x.
CMC Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $63.9 | 0% below |
| 20 week MA | $66.1 | 3.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $68.9 | 7.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $60.3 | 5.9% above |
| 200 week MA | $56.3 | 13% above |
CMC has pulled back, but its long-term trend is still up: it's below its 8-, 20- and 50-week averages, but 13% above its 200-week average.
CMC Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $22.5 | $20.0 | -11% |
| 2021 | $20.0 | $35.1 | +75% |
| 2022 | $35.1 | $48.8 | +39% |
| 2023 | $48.8 | $50.0 | +2.5% |
| 2024 | $50.0 | $50.1 | +0.1% |
| 2025 | $50.1 | $71.2 | +42% |
| 2026 YTD | $71.2 | $63.9 | -10% |
CMC has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's down 10% so far in 2026.