CG
The Carlyle Group Inc.
CG's outlook is improving despite an expensive valuation.
JPM
JPMorgan Chase & Co.
JPM has the edge over CG overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
CG Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Under pressure | |
| Stable | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
CG's profitability is currently stable, but its revenue is under pressure. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like CG.
JPM Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
JPM's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like JPM.
CG PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 6.4x | $5.99 | -85% |
| Forward | 9.5x | $39.36 | — |
| Fair | 14x | $13.43 | -66% |
| Expensive | 36x | $33.42 | -15% |
| Current | 42x | $39.36 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CG's PE is in its expensive range at 42x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 9.5x next year's earnings, in its fair range.
JPM PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.7x | $231 | -33% |
| Fair | 12x | $287 | -16% |
| Current | 14x | $343 | — |
| Forward | 14x | $343 | — |
| Expensive | 15x | $361 | +5.2% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
JPM has the edge over CG in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CG Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CG, with profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
JPM Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for JPM, with profitability improving.
CG Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $4.16 | +343% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.94 | -47% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.96 | -72% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.46 | -50% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.18 | -21% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.78 | +493% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.41 | +$4.52 |
| Q1 2025 | $2.94 | +$4.72 |
| Q4 2024 | $2.77 | +$4.45 |
CG's earnings per share have fallen from their peak: $0.94 over the past year, against $8.20 in late 2021.
JPM Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $24.99 | +4.8% |
| Q3 2026 | $23.85 | +18% |
| Q2 2026 | $23.35 | +20% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.89 | +2.5% |
| Q4 2025 | $20.02 | +1.4% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.20 | +12% |
| Q2 2025 | $19.50 | +8.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $20.38 | +23% |
| Q4 2024 | $19.75 | +22% |
JPM has the edge over CG on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CG Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $334.1M | +0.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.1B | -29% |
| Q1 2026 | $254M | -74% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.9B | +84% |
| Q3 2025 | $332.7M | -87% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.6B | +47% |
| Q1 2025 | $973.1M | +41% |
| Q4 2024 | $1B | +11% |
CG's revenue has slid since its 2021 peak: $334M last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -16% | -5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 22% | -3 points |
| Q1 2026 | -45% | -62 points |
| Q4 2025 | 27% | +4.9 points |
| Q3 2025 | -11% | -41 points |
| Q2 2025 | 25% | +4.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 17% | -1.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 22% | +113 points |
CG's operating margin was −16% last quarter, down 5 points from the same quarter a year ago.
JPM Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $50.2B | +8.1% |
| Q2 2026 | $57.3B | +28% |
| Q1 2026 | $49.8B | +10% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.8B | +7.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $46.4B | +8.8% |
| Q2 2025 | $44.9B | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $45.3B | +8.1% |
| Q4 2024 | $42.8B | +11% |
JPM has the edge over CG on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 40% | -0.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 48% | +7.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 41% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 37% | -3.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 40% | +0.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 41% | -6 points |
| Q1 2025 | 41% | -0.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | 41% | +11 points |
JPM has the edge over CG on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CG Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $333.7M | +$1.9B |
| Q2 2026 | -$32.5M | +$153.8M |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.3B | -$901.7M |
| Q4 2025 | -$1.2B | -$857.6M |
| Q3 2025 | -$1.6B | -305% |
| Q2 2025 | -$186.3M | +$1.1B |
| Q1 2025 | -$368.8M | -748% |
| Q4 2024 | -$379.5M | -260% |
CG's free cash flow was −$2.2B over the past year, against −$2.5B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like CG.
JPM Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $33.2B | +$78.4B |
| Q2 2026 | -$25.3B | -186% |
| Q1 2026 | -$211.8B | +$40.1B |
| Q4 2025 | $119.7B | -19% |
| Q3 2025 | -$45.2B | +$28.9B |
| Q2 2025 | $29.5B | -23% |
| Q1 2025 | -$251.8B | -$97.7B |
| Q4 2024 | $147.8B | +145% |
JPM has the edge over CG on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CG Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -3.5% | -13M shares |
| 1 year | -5.9% | -22.2M shares |
| 3 years | -2.6% | -9.4M shares |
| 5 years | -2.9% | -10.4M shares |
| Available history | -0.8% | -3M shares |
CG has the edge over JPM on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $210.4M |
| Q2 2026 | $304.1M |
| Q1 2026 | $204.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $203.7M |
| Q3 2025 | $202.7M |
| Q2 2025 | $103.6M |
| Q1 2025 | $176.5M |
| Q4 2024 | $75.8M |
CG spent $923M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 65% from the year before.
JPM Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.4% | -11.2M shares |
| 1 year | -3.1% | -84.6M shares |
| 3 years | -8.5% | -249M shares |
| 5 years | -11% | -322M shares |
| Available history | -17% | -547M shares |
JPM has 2.7B diluted shares, down 3.1% from a year ago, with $24.5B in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.1B |
| Q2 2026 | $6.8B |
| Q1 2026 | $8.3B |
| Q4 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q3 2025 | $8.3B |
| Q2 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q1 2025 | $7.5B |
| Q4 2024 | $4.3B |
JPM spent $24.5B buying back its own shares over the past year, down 11% from the year before.
CG Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -1.6x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
CG has the edge over JPM on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
JPM Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.4x | Very low |
JPM's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA). Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like JPM.
CG Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 39.1 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 26.1 | Neutral |
CG's weekly RSI is 39 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 26 (neutral).
JPM Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.8 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 31.5 | Neutral |
JPM's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 31 (neutral).
CG PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | CG | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 42x | 13x | 222% above |
| PE % | 87 | 63 | 24 pts above |
CG is trading at 42x earnings, a 222% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
JPM PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | JPM | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 14x | 13x | 10% above |
| PE % | 76 | 63 | 13 pts above |
JPM has the edge over CG on valuation relative to its sector.
CG Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.1 | 0.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.1 | 8.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $48.5 | 19% below |
| 100 week MA | $50.5 | 22% below |
| 200 week MA | $44.4 | 11% below |
CG has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 11% below its 200-week average.
JPM Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $336.8 | 1.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $345.3 | 0.7% below |
| 50 week MA | $323.2 | 6.1% above |
| 100 week MA | $298.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $236.6 | 45% above |
JPM has the edge over CG on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CG Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $31.2 | $31.4 | +0.4% |
| 2021 | $31.4 | $55.5 | +77% |
| 2022 | $55.5 | $29.9 | -46% |
| 2023 | $29.9 | $40.7 | +36% |
| 2024 | $40.7 | $50.9 | +25% |
| 2025 | $50.9 | $61.1 | +20% |
| 2026 YTD | $61.1 | $39.4 | -36% |
CG is down 36% so far in 2026, after finishing higher in five of the previous six years.
JPM Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $139.1 | $124.5 | -11% |
| 2021 | $124.5 | $157.3 | +26% |
| 2022 | $157.3 | $131.3 | -17% |
| 2023 | $131.3 | $170.1 | +30% |
| 2024 | $170.1 | $241.2 | +42% |
| 2025 | $241.2 | $327.9 | +36% |
| 2026 YTD | $327.9 | $342.8 | +4.5% |
JPM has the edge over CG on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.