CFR
Cullen/Frost Bankers, Inc.
CFR offers stronger valuation, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
MS
Morgan Stanley
MS has the edge over CFR overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger fundamentals.
CFR Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
CFR's profitability is currently strong, and its revenue is stable. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like CFR.
MS Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| N/A | |
| N/A |
MS's revenue and profitability are currently healthy. Free cash flow and net leverage aren't meaningful measures for financial services companies like MS.
CFR PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 12x | $126 | -20% |
| Forward | 13x | $158 | — |
| Fair | 14x | $152 | -4% |
| Current | 15x | $158 | — |
| Expensive | 19x | $207 | +31% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CFR has the edge over MS in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MS PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 11x | $134 | -29% |
| Fair | 14x | $178 | -5.7% |
| Forward | 14x | $189 | — |
| Current | 15x | $189 | — |
| Expensive | 18x | $223 | +18% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MS's PE is in its fair range at 15x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 14x next year's earnings.
CFR Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for CFR, with profitability improving.
MS Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect earnings and revenue growth for MS, with profitability improving.
CFR Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $11.91 | +11% |
| Q3 2026 | $10.75 | +11% |
| Q2 2026 | $10.58 | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $10.27 | +13% |
| Q4 2025 | $9.92 | +12% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.72 | +21% |
| Q2 2025 | $9.29 | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $9.11 | +7.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $8.87 | -2.5% |
CFR earned $10.75 per share over the past year, up 11% from the year before. Its recent earnings include one-off gains.
MS Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $13.39 | +6.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $12.60 | +29% |
| Q2 2026 | $12.37 | +40% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.04 | +29% |
| Q4 2025 | $10.21 | +28% |
| Q3 2025 | $9.76 | +48% |
| Q2 2025 | $8.84 | +45% |
| Q1 2025 | $8.53 | +55% |
| Q4 2024 | $7.95 | +53% |
MS has the edge over CFR on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CFR Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $603.8M | +6.4% |
| Q2 2026 | $576M | +5.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $574.8M | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $580.9M | +8.3% |
| Q3 2025 | $567.3M | +9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $546.9M | +7.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $540.2M | +7.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $536.3M | +6.9% |
CFR's revenue has grown year over year for 10 quarters in a row: $604M last quarter, up 6.4% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 36% | -1.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 36% | +1.4 points |
| Q1 2026 | 35% | +2.1 points |
| Q4 2025 | 34% | -0.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 37% | +2.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 34% | -0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 33% | +0.9 points |
| Q4 2024 | 34% | +10 points |
CFR has the edge over MS on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
MS Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $20.3B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $21.3B | +27% |
| Q1 2026 | $20.6B | +16% |
| Q4 2025 | $17.9B | +10% |
| Q3 2025 | $18.2B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $16.8B | +12% |
| Q1 2025 | $17.7B | +17% |
| Q4 2024 | $16.2B | +26% |
MS has the edge over CFR on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 32% | -1.2 points |
| Q2 2026 | 34% | +6.9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 34% | +2.8 points |
| Q4 2025 | 32% | +2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 33% | +5.6 points |
| Q2 2025 | 28% | +0.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 31% | +2.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 30% | +14 points |
MS's operating margin was 32% last quarter, down 1.2 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CFR Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $248.7M | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | -$7.1M | -106% |
| Q1 2026 | $198.7M | +$535.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $138.2M | +419% |
| Q3 2025 | $211.7M | -25% |
| Q2 2025 | $114.5M | +11% |
| Q1 2025 | -$337.1M | -175% |
| Q4 2024 | $26.7M | +$150.2M |
CFR has the edge over MS on cash generation, producing positive trailing cash flow while its opponent burns cash.
MS Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -$46B | -$42.7B |
| Q2 2026 | -$2.7B | -123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$7.1B | +$16.9B |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.4B | -120% |
| Q3 2025 | -$3.3B | +$14B |
| Q2 2025 | $11.8B | +368% |
| Q1 2025 | -$24B | -650% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.8B | +$29.6B |
MS's free cash flow was −$58.3B over the past year, against −$3.7B the year before. Free cash flow isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CFR Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.5% | -338K shares |
| 1 year | -3.1% | -2M shares |
| 3 years | -3.3% | -2.1M shares |
| 5 years | -3.1% | -2M shares |
| Available history | -2.1% | -1.3M shares |
CFR has the edge over MS on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $15.2M |
| Q2 2026 | $90.9M |
| Q1 2026 | $72.3M |
| Q4 2025 | $85.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $69.8M |
| Q2 2025 | $76,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $2.6M |
| Q4 2024 | $8.6M |
CFR spent $264M buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
MS Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.2% | -3M shares |
| 1 year | -1.5% | -24M shares |
| 3 years | -4.7% | -77M shares |
| 5 years | -14% | -246M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -74M shares |
MS has 1.6B diluted shares, down 1.5% from a year ago.
CFR Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -0.7x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -0.6x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -0.8x | Net Cash |
CFR has the edge over MS on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MS Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 7.8x | High |
| Q2 2026 | 7.3x | High |
| Q1 2026 | 8.2x | High |
| Q4 2025 | 8.6x | High |
| Q3 2025 | 8.4x | High |
| Q2 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q1 2025 | 8.7x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 7.9x | High |
MS's net debt is about 7.8 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 8.4 years a year ago. Net leverage isn't a meaningful measure for financial services companies like MS.
CFR Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 44.9 | Neutral |
CFR's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 45 (neutral).
MS Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 45.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 18.7 | Oversold |
MS's weekly RSI is 45 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 19 (oversold).
CFR PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | CFR | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 13% above |
| PE % | 56 | 63 | 7 pts below |
CFR has the edge over MS on valuation relative to its sector.
MS PE vs Financial Services Sector
| Metric | MS | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 15x | 13x | 15% above |
| PE % | 59 | 63 | 4 pts below |
MS is trading at 15x earnings, a 15% premium to the Financial Services sector's median of 13x.
CFR Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $155.7 | 1.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $159.8 | 1.2% below |
| 50 week MA | $146.8 | 7.5% above |
| 100 week MA | $137.4 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $123.3 | 28% above |
CFR has the edge over MS on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
MS Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $186.5 | 1.5% above |
| 20 week MA | $203.3 | 6.9% below |
| 50 week MA | $191.9 | 1.4% below |
| 100 week MA | $164.9 | 15% above |
| 200 week MA | $129.3 | 46% above |
MS's trend is mixed: it's above three of its five weekly moving averages, and 46% above its 200-week average.
CFR Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $98.0 | $87.5 | -11% |
| 2021 | $87.5 | $125.5 | +43% |
| 2022 | $125.5 | $131.7 | +5% |
| 2023 | $131.7 | $108.5 | -18% |
| 2024 | $108.5 | $135.2 | +25% |
| 2025 | $135.2 | $128.6 | -4.9% |
| 2026 YTD | $128.6 | $157.8 | +23% |
CFR has the edge over MS on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
MS Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.1 | $68.1 | +33% |
| 2021 | $68.1 | $99.3 | +46% |
| 2022 | $99.3 | $86.1 | -13% |
| 2023 | $86.1 | $93.3 | +8.3% |
| 2024 | $93.3 | $126.8 | +36% |
| 2025 | $126.8 | $181.9 | +43% |
| 2026 YTD | $181.9 | $189.2 | +4% |
MS has finished higher in five of the last six years. It's up 4% so far in 2026.