CF
CF Industries Holdings, Inc.
CF's fundamentals are strong: its operating margin rose 10 points to 42% and revenue grew 18%. At 8.8x earnings, it's trading below its usual 12x. Analysts expect earnings to decline, though they disagree widely on how much.
CF Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
CF's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CF PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 7.2x | $102 | -18% |
| Current | 8.8x | $125 | — |
| Forward | 9.8x | $125 | — |
| Fair | 12x | $171 | +37% |
| Expensive | 24x | $338 | +171% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CF's PE is in its cheap range at 8.8x. Analysts expect earnings to fall, which would put today's price at 9.8x next year's earnings.
CF Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Deteriorating | |
| Decline | |
| Stable | |
| Stable | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect CF's earnings to decline, with its revenue and profitability holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CF Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $12.72 | -10% |
| Q3 2026 | $14.14 | +71% |
| Q2 2026 | $13.46 | +76% |
| Q1 2026 | $11.10 | +47% |
| Q4 2025 | $8.97 | +33% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.27 | +30% |
| Q2 2025 | $7.63 | +35% |
| Q1 2025 | $7.56 | +25% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.74 | -14% |
CF earned $14.14 per share over the past year, up 71% from the year before.
CF Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $1.9B | +12% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.2B | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $2B | +19% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.9B | +23% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.7B | +21% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.9B | +20% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.7B | +13% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.5B | -3% |
CF's revenue is recovering but still below its 2022 peak: $1.9B last quarter, up 12% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 38% | +2.7 points |
| Q2 2026 | 50% | +16 points |
| Q1 2026 | 43% | +16 points |
| Q4 2025 | 33% | +4 points |
| Q3 2025 | 35% | +8.4 points |
| Q2 2025 | 34% | -6.3 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | +6.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 29% | +1.8 points |
CF's operating margin was 38% last quarter, up 2.7 points from the same quarter a year ago.
CF Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $888M | +24% |
| Q2 2026 | $607M | +91% |
| Q1 2026 | $273M | -40% |
| Q4 2025 | $313M | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $717M | -9.5% |
| Q2 2025 | $318M | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $454M | +31% |
| Q4 2024 | $223M | -24% |
CF's free cash flow has been positive every quarter for seven years: $2.1B over the past year, up 22% from the year before.
CF Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.5% | -2.3M shares |
| 1 year | -6% | -9.6M shares |
| 3 years | -21% | -41.3M shares |
| 5 years | -29% | -63.3M shares |
| Available history | -32% | -70M shares |
CF has 152M diluted shares, down 6% from a year ago, with $955M in buybacks over the past year.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $357M |
| Q2 2026 | $225M |
| Q1 2026 | $28M |
| Q4 2025 | $345M |
| Q3 2025 | $360M |
| Q2 2025 | $216M |
| Q1 2025 | $444M |
| Q4 2024 | $375M |
CF spent $955M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 32% from the year before.
CF Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q2 2026 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.8x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.9x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 1.0x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 1.1x | Healthy |
CF's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CF Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 54.9 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 40.0 | Neutral |
CF's weekly RSI is 55 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 40 (neutral).
CF PE vs Basic Materials Sector
| Metric | CF | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 8.8x | 19x | 53% below |
| PE % | 23 | 40 | 17 pts below |
CF is trading at 8.8x earnings, a 53% discount to the Basic Materials sector's median of 19x.
CF Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $118.8 | 5.2% above |
| 20 week MA | $121.6 | 2.7% above |
| 50 week MA | $111.7 | 12% above |
| 100 week MA | $98.7 | 27% above |
| 200 week MA | $88.7 | 41% above |
CF is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 41% above its 200-week average.
CF Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $47.6 | $36.8 | -23% |
| 2021 | $36.8 | $72.3 | +96% |
| 2022 | $72.3 | $90.7 | +26% |
| 2023 | $90.7 | $79.5 | -12% |
| 2024 | $79.5 | $84.8 | +6.6% |
| 2025 | $84.8 | $77.5 | -8.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $77.5 | $124.9 | +61% |
CF is up 61% so far in 2026, after finishing lower in three of the previous six years.