CELH
Celsius Holdings, Inc.
CELH has the edge over MO overall, supported by stronger modeled upside and stronger valuation.
MO
Altria Group, Inc.
MO has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CELH Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Strong |
CELH's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
MO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
MO's profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable.
CELH PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forward | 21x | $31.89 | — |
| Current | 35x | $31.89 | — |
| Cheap | 40x | $35.95 | +13% |
| Fair | 141x | $127 | +299% |
| Expensive | 650x | $585 | +1735% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CELH has the edge over MO in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
MO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 9.2x | $44.57 | -43% |
| Forward | 13x | $77.92 | — |
| Fair | 15x | $71.01 | -8.9% |
| Current | 16x | $77.92 | — |
| Expensive | 34x | $165 | +112% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
MO's PE is in its fair range at 16x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 13x next year's earnings.
CELH Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Growth | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
CELH has the edge over MO on the outlook, with more favorable revenue expectations.
MO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Improving | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
Analysts expect MO's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady.
CELH Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.53 | +70% |
| Q3 2026 | $0.90 | +718% |
| Q2 2026 | $0.24 | -37% |
| Q1 2026 | $0.43 | +30% |
| Q4 2025 | $0.25 | -44% |
| Q3 2025 | $0.11 | -85% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.38 | -62% |
| Q1 2025 | $0.33 | -64% |
| Q4 2024 | $0.45 | -42% |
CELH earned $0.90 per share over the past year, about eight times what it earned the year before.
MO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $5.89 | +21% |
| Q3 2026 | $4.85 | -7.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $4.75 | -7.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.79 | -20% |
| Q4 2025 | $4.12 | -37% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.23 | -12% |
| Q2 2025 | $5.16 | -11% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.96 | +25% |
| Q4 2024 | $6.54 | +43% |
MO has the edge over CELH on earnings, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
CELH Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $847.2M | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $817.9M | +11% |
| Q1 2026 | $782.6M | +138% |
| Q4 2025 | $721.6M | +117% |
| Q3 2025 | $725.1M | +173% |
| Q2 2025 | $739.3M | +84% |
| Q1 2025 | $329.3M | -7.4% |
| Q4 2024 | $332.2M | -4.4% |
CELH has the edge over MO on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 20% | +31 points |
| Q2 2026 | 9.2% | -10 points |
| Q1 2026 | 18% | +2 points |
| Q4 2025 | 3.6% | +9.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | -11% | -9.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 19% | -4.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 16% | -7.6 points |
| Q4 2024 | -5.6% | -23 points |
CELH's operating margin was 20% last quarter, up 31 points from the same quarter a year ago.
MO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $6.1B | +1% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.1B | +0.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $5.4B | +3.2% |
| Q4 2025 | $5.8B | -2.1% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.1B | -3% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.1B | -1.7% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.3B | -5.7% |
| Q4 2024 | $6B | 0% |
MO's revenue has held roughly level: $6.1B last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 54% | +0.8 points |
| Q2 2026 | 51% | -1.6 points |
| Q1 2026 | 54% | +21 points |
| Q4 2025 | 28% | -20 points |
| Q3 2025 | 53% | +2.8 points |
| Q2 2025 | 53% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 34% | -14 points |
| Q4 2024 | 48% | +1.5 points |
MO has the edge over CELH on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CELH Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $127.7M | -60% |
| Q2 2026 | $205.5M | +479% |
| Q1 2026 | $65.8M | -32% |
| Q4 2025 | -$130M | -285% |
| Q3 2025 | $321.5M | +3599% |
| Q2 2025 | $35.5M | +17% |
| Q1 2025 | $96.4M | -26% |
| Q4 2024 | $70.3M | +16394% |
CELH still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2025 peak: $269M over the past year.
MO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3B | -1.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $662M | +283% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.2B | -17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.2B | -3.5% |
| Q3 2025 | $3B | +18% |
| Q2 2025 | $173M | +$277M |
| Q1 2025 | $2.7B | -5.6% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.3B | +3.7% |
MO generated $9.1B in free cash flow over the past year, down 1.3% from the year before.
CELH Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.8% | -2M shares |
| 1 year | -1.1% | -2.9M shares |
| 3 years | +7.4% | +17.6M shares |
| 5 years | +8.3% | +19.5M shares |
| Available history | +32% | +62.4M shares |
CELH has the edge over MO on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $300,000 |
| Q2 2026 | $1M |
| Q1 2026 | $8.8M |
| Q4 2025 | $2.5M |
| Q3 2025 | $448,000 |
| Q2 2025 | $879,000 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9M |
| Q4 2024 | $603,000 |
CELH spent $13M buying back its own shares over the past year, about three times what it spent the year before.
MO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.1% | -1M shares |
| 1 year | -0.7% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -5.9% | -104M shares |
| 5 years | -9.4% | -173M shares |
| Available history | -11% | -200M shares |
MO has 1.7B diluted shares, down 0.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $400M |
| Q2 2026 | $55M |
| Q1 2026 | $280M |
| Q4 2025 | $288M |
| Q3 2025 | $112M |
| Q2 2025 | $274M |
| Q1 2025 | $326M |
| Q4 2024 | $310M |
MO spent $1B buying back its own shares over the past year, about the same as the year before.
CELH Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -0.1x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | 0.2x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 1.6x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 1.4x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | -7.3x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -5.5x | Net Cash |
CELH has the edge over MO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
MO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.9x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q3 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.1x | Moderate |
| Q1 2025 | 2.0x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 1.9x | Healthy |
MO's net debt is about 1.9 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
CELH Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 51.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 56.8 | Neutral |
CELH's weekly RSI is 51 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 57 (neutral).
MO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 62.7 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.3 | Overbought |
MO's weekly RSI is 63 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
CELH PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector
| Metric | CELH | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 35x | 19x | 82% above |
| PE % | 11 | 18 | 7 pts below |
CELH is trading at 35x earnings, a 82% premium to the Consumer Defensive sector's median of 19x.
MO PE vs Consumer Defensive Sector
| Metric | MO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 16x | 19x | 18% below |
| PE % | 57 | 18 | 39 pts above |
MO has the edge over CELH on valuation relative to its sector.
CELH Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $29.1 | 9.4% above |
| 20 week MA | $29.6 | 7.8% above |
| 50 week MA | $36.1 | 12% below |
| 100 week MA | $38.8 | 18% below |
| 200 week MA | $44.6 | 29% below |
CELH has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8- and 20-week averages, but 29% below its 200-week average.
MO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $73.7 | 5.8% above |
| 20 week MA | $71.3 | 9.3% above |
| 50 week MA | $68.1 | 14% above |
| 100 week MA | $63.6 | 22% above |
| 200 week MA | $54.7 | 43% above |
MO has the edge over CELH on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
CELH Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $1.58 | $14.7 | +832% |
| 2021 | $14.7 | $24.9 | +69% |
| 2022 | $24.9 | $35.6 | +43% |
| 2023 | $35.6 | $54.5 | +53% |
| 2024 | $54.5 | $26.5 | -51% |
| 2025 | $26.5 | $45.6 | +72% |
| 2026 YTD | $45.6 | $31.9 | -30% |
CELH's yearly returns have swung widely, from +832% in 2020 to −51% in 2024. It's down 30% so far in 2026.
MO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $50.4 | $41.7 | -17% |
| 2021 | $41.7 | $46.7 | +12% |
| 2022 | $46.7 | $46.2 | -1% |
| 2023 | $46.2 | $40.3 | -13% |
| 2024 | $40.3 | $52.4 | +30% |
| 2025 | $52.4 | $57.6 | +10% |
| 2026 YTD | $57.6 | $77.9 | +35% |
MO has the edge over CELH on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.