CDNA
CareDx, Inc
CDNA has the edge over NVO overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger modeled upside.
NVO
Novo Nordisk A/S
NVO has lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CDNA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
CDNA's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
NVO Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Stable | |
| Healthy |
NVO's revenue, profitability and balance sheet are currently healthy, and its cash flow is stable.
CDNA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $35.14 | -56% |
| Fair | 18x | $42.70 | -46% |
| Expensive | 24x | $57.27 | -28% |
| Current | 33x | $79.81 | — |
| Forward | 54x | $79.81 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CDNA's PE is in its expensive range at 33x. On analysts' estimates for next year's earnings, today's price would be 54x.
NVO PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current | 10x | $40.65 | — |
| Cheap | 14x | $53.56 | +32% |
| Fair | 27x | $103 | +154% |
| Expensive | 39x | $152 | +273% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
NVO has the edge over CDNA in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
CDNA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
CDNA has the edge over NVO on the outlook, with more favorable earnings and profitability expectations.
NVO Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Weakening | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect NVO's revenue to grow, but its profitability to weaken. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CDNA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.48 | -38% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.39 | +117% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.07 | +123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.16 | -115% |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.40 | -143% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.10 | +$3.80 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.93 | +$3.92 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.06 | +$4.48 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.93 | +$4.47 |
CDNA earned $2.39 per share over the past year, up 117% from the year before.
NVO Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $3.89 | +4.9% |
| Q1 2026 | $4.07 | +17% |
| Q4 2025 | $3.42 | +1.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $3.47 | +10% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.71 | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $3.49 | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $3.36 | +21% |
| Q3 2024 | $3.15 | +27% |
NVO has the edge over CDNA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CDNA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $139.4M | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $131.9M | +52% |
| Q1 2026 | $117.7M | +39% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.4M | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $100.1M | +21% |
| Q2 2025 | $86.7M | -6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $84.7M | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $86.6M | +32% |
CDNA has the edge over NVO on sales, with stronger typical year-over-year growth.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8% | +6.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 86% | +99 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1% | +17 points |
| Q4 2025 | -5.6% | -92 points |
| Q3 2025 | -0.3% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -13% | -8.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -16% | +11 points |
| Q4 2024 | 86% | +273 points |
CDNA's operating margin was 5.8% last quarter, up 6.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
NVO Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $11.7B | +2.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $14.4B | +24% |
| Q4 2025 | $11.8B | -7.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $11.1B | +5.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $11.4B | +13% |
| Q1 2025 | $11.6B | +19% |
| Q4 2024 | $12.7B | +30% |
| Q3 2024 | $10.6B | +21% |
NVO's revenue is growing: $11.7B last quarter, up 2.1% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 34% | -9 points |
| Q1 2026 | 62% | +12 points |
| Q4 2025 | 40% | -2.8 points |
| Q3 2025 | 32% | -16 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +5.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | 50% | +1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 43% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2024 | 47% | +1.6 points |
NVO has the edge over CDNA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CDNA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.1M | -70% |
| Q2 2026 | $28.7M | +191% |
| Q1 2026 | $514K | +$27.1M |
| Q2 2023 | -$499K | +$3.4M |
| Q1 2023 | $671K | +$22.1M |
| Q4 2022 | $7.2M | +72% |
| Q3 2022 | -$7.1M | -$3.8M |
| Q2 2022 | -$3.9M | -156% |
CDNA generated $62M in free cash flow over the past year, about three times what it generated the year before.
NVO Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $6.3B | +73% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.8B | +20% |
| Q4 2025 | -$5.4B | -$4.7B |
| Q3 2025 | $4.6B | -2.1% |
| Q2 2025 | $3.6B | -34% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.5B | +89% |
| Q4 2024 | -$632.6M | +$390.5M |
| Q3 2024 | $4.7B | +3.3% |
NVO still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2026 peak: $7.3B over the past year.
CDNA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.9% | +1.6M shares |
| 1 year | +2.3% | +1.2M shares |
| 3 years | +1.5% | +806K shares |
| 5 years | +4.4% | +2.3M shares |
| Available history | +30% | +12.5M shares |
CDNA has 55M diluted shares, up 2.3% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $12.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $25.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $50M |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
NVO Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -0.3% | -12.9M shares |
| 1 year | -0.2% | -11M shares |
| 3 years | -1.5% | -66.8M shares |
| 5 years | -3.8% | -177M shares |
| Available history | -6.5% | -311M shares |
NVO has the edge over CDNA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | $520M |
| Q1 2026 | $356.7M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | $206.3M |
| Q4 2024 | $1.1B |
| Q3 2024 | $357.4M |
NVO spent $877M buying back its own shares over the past year, down 48% from the year before.
CDNA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
CDNA has the edge over NVO on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
NVO Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2026 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2026 | 0.7x | Very low |
| Q4 2025 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2025 | 0.4x | Very low |
| Q2 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q1 2025 | 0.5x | Very low |
| Q4 2024 | 0.6x | Very low |
| Q3 2024 | -0.0x | Very low |
NVO's net debt is less than a year of its operating earnings (EBITDA).
CDNA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 76.2 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 81.1 | Overbought |
CDNA's weekly RSI is 76 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 81 (overbought).
NVO Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 43.0 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 27.0 | Neutral |
NVO's weekly RSI is 43 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 27 (neutral).
CDNA PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | CDNA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33x | 26x | 29% above |
| PE % | 97 | 29 | 68 pts above |
CDNA is trading at 33x earnings, a 29% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
NVO PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | NVO | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 10x | 26x | 60% below |
| PE % | 6 | 29 | 23 pts below |
NVO has the edge over CDNA on valuation relative to its sector.
CDNA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $71.7 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $54.9 | 45% above |
| 50 week MA | $34.1 | 134% above |
| 100 week MA | $25.8 | 209% above |
| 200 week MA | $19.7 | 305% above |
CDNA has the edge over NVO on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
NVO Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $39.2 | 3.7% above |
| 20 week MA | $43.9 | 7.4% below |
| 50 week MA | $45.3 | 10% below |
| 100 week MA | $56.3 | 28% below |
| 200 week MA | $80.7 | 50% below |
NVO has bounced recently, but its long-term trend is still down: it's above its 8-week average, but 50% below its 200-week average.
CDNA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $21.5 | $76.2 | +255% |
| 2021 | $76.2 | $44.9 | -41% |
| 2022 | $44.9 | $11.3 | -75% |
| 2023 | $11.3 | $12.0 | +6.6% |
| 2024 | $12.0 | $21.1 | +76% |
| 2025 | $21.1 | $19.5 | -7.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $19.5 | $79.8 | +310% |
CDNA has the edge over NVO on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
NVO Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $29.1 | $34.7 | +19% |
| 2021 | $34.7 | $54.2 | +56% |
| 2022 | $54.2 | $67.0 | +24% |
| 2023 | $67.0 | $103.5 | +54% |
| 2024 | $103.5 | $87.4 | -16% |
| 2025 | $87.4 | $52.4 | -40% |
| 2026 YTD | $52.4 | $40.7 | -22% |
NVO has finished higher in four of the last six years, two of them by more than 50%. It's down 22% so far in 2026.