CDNA
CareDx, Inc
CDNA offers stronger fundamentals, but that advantage does not outweigh its weaker overall profile.
LLY
Eli Lilly and Company
LLY has the edge over CDNA overall, supported by stronger valuation and lower modeled downside.
CDNA Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy | |
| Strong |
CDNA's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
LLY Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Healthy | |
| Strong | |
| Strong | |
| Healthy |
LLY's revenue, profitability, cash flow and balance sheet are all currently healthy.
CDNA PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 15x | $35.14 | -56% |
| Fair | 18x | $42.70 | -46% |
| Expensive | 24x | $57.27 | -28% |
| Current | 33x | $79.81 | — |
| Forward | 54x | $79.81 | — |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CDNA has the edge over LLY in the historical PE scenario, which offers more potential upside but is not a forecast.
LLY PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 27x | $845 | -41% |
| Forward | 30x | $1,427 | — |
| Current | 46x | $1,427 | — |
| Fair | 48x | $1,466 | +2.7% |
| Expensive | 85x | $2,612 | +83% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
LLY's PE is in its fair range at 46x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 30x next year's earnings, in its cheap range.
CDNA Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly deteriorating | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| High |
Analysts expect strong earnings and revenue growth for CDNA, with profitability improving.
LLY Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Strongly improving | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strong growth | |
| Strongly improving | |
| Limited | |
| Moderate |
LLY has the edge over CDNA on the outlook, with more favorable valuation expectations.
CDNA Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.48 | -38% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.39 | +117% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.07 | +123% |
| Q1 2026 | -$0.16 | -115% |
| Q4 2025 | -$0.40 | -143% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.10 | +$3.80 |
| Q2 2025 | $0.93 | +$3.92 |
| Q1 2025 | $1.06 | +$4.48 |
| Q4 2024 | $0.93 | +$4.47 |
CDNA earned $2.39 per share over the past year, up 117% from the year before.
LLY Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $46.82 | +52% |
| Q3 2026 | $30.81 | +51% |
| Q2 2026 | $29.80 | +95% |
| Q1 2026 | $28.15 | +129% |
| Q4 2025 | $22.95 | +96% |
| Q3 2025 | $20.44 | +121% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.30 | +88% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.29 | +81% |
| Q4 2024 | $11.71 | +102% |
LLY has the edge over CDNA on earnings, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CDNA Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $139.4M | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $131.9M | +52% |
| Q1 2026 | $117.7M | +39% |
| Q4 2025 | $108.4M | +25% |
| Q3 2025 | $100.1M | +21% |
| Q2 2025 | $86.7M | -6.1% |
| Q1 2025 | $84.7M | +18% |
| Q4 2024 | $86.6M | +32% |
CDNA's revenue has grown year over year for five quarters in a row: $139M last quarter, up 39% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 5.8% | +6.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 86% | +99 points |
| Q1 2026 | 1% | +17 points |
| Q4 2025 | -5.6% | -92 points |
| Q3 2025 | -0.3% | +12 points |
| Q2 2025 | -13% | -8.4 points |
| Q1 2025 | -16% | +11 points |
| Q4 2024 | 86% | +273 points |
CDNA's operating margin was 5.8% last quarter, up 6.1 points from the same quarter a year ago.
LLY Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $24.4B | +39% |
| Q2 2026 | $23B | +48% |
| Q1 2026 | $19.8B | +56% |
| Q4 2025 | $19.3B | +43% |
| Q3 2025 | $17.6B | +54% |
| Q2 2025 | $15.6B | +38% |
| Q1 2025 | $12.7B | +45% |
| Q4 2024 | $13.5B | +45% |
LLY has the edge over CDNA on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 34% | -6.6 points |
| Q2 2026 | 40% | -3.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 45% | +18 points |
| Q4 2025 | 43% | +5.6 points |
| Q3 2025 | 41% | +27 points |
| Q2 2025 | 44% | +12 points |
| Q1 2025 | 27% | -1.8 points |
| Q4 2024 | 37% | +10 points |
LLY has the edge over CDNA on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
CDNA Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $11.1M | -70% |
| Q2 2026 | $28.7M | +191% |
| Q1 2026 | $514K | +$27.1M |
| Q2 2023 | -$499K | +$3.4M |
| Q1 2023 | $671K | +$22.1M |
| Q4 2022 | $7.2M | +72% |
| Q3 2022 | -$7.1M | -$3.8M |
| Q2 2022 | -$3.9M | -156% |
CDNA generated $62M in free cash flow over the past year, about three times what it generated the year before.
LLY Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.2B | +22% |
| Q2 2026 | $7.8B | +458% |
| Q1 2026 | $3B | +1826% |
| Q4 2025 | $677.9M | -31% |
| Q3 2025 | $6.7B | +186% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.4B | +476% |
| Q1 2025 | $156.1M | -13% |
| Q4 2024 | $977.8M | +$2.4B |
LLY has the edge over CDNA on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
CDNA Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.9% | +1.6M shares |
| 1 year | +2.3% | +1.2M shares |
| 3 years | +1.5% | +806K shares |
| 5 years | +4.4% | +2.3M shares |
| Available history | +30% | +12.5M shares |
CDNA has 55M diluted shares, up 2.3% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q4 2025 | $12.2M |
| Q3 2025 | $25.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $50M |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | — |
| Q3 2024 | — |
| Q2 2024 | — |
LLY Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | 0% | -300K shares |
| 1 year | -0.6% | -5.4M shares |
| 3 years | -0.7% | -6.4M shares |
| 5 years | -1.9% | -17.4M shares |
| Available history | -4.5% | -42.3M shares |
LLY has the edge over CDNA on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $377M |
| Q2 2026 | $1.6B |
| Q1 2026 | $2.4B |
| Q4 2025 | $1.5B |
| Q3 2025 | $708.1M |
| Q2 2025 | $692.2M |
| Q1 2025 | $1.2B |
| Q4 2024 | $2.1B |
LLY spent $5.8B buying back its own shares over the past year, up 26% from the year before.
CDNA Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -1.9x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -3.1x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -1.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -1.3x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.5x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
CDNA has the edge over LLY on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
LLY Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q1 2026 | 1.2x | Healthy |
| Q4 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q3 2025 | 1.3x | Healthy |
| Q2 2025 | 2.0x | Healthy |
| Q1 2025 | 2.3x | Moderate |
| Q4 2024 | 2.1x | Moderate |
LLY's net debt is about 1.2 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), about the same as a year ago.
CDNA Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 76.2 | Overbought |
| Stochastic | 81.1 | Overbought |
CDNA's weekly RSI is 76 (overbought) and its Stochastic is 81 (overbought).
LLY Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 68.3 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 84.1 | Overbought |
LLY's weekly RSI is 68 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 84 (overbought).
CDNA PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | CDNA | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 33x | 26x | 29% above |
| PE % | 97 | 29 | 68 pts above |
CDNA has the edge over LLY on valuation relative to its sector.
LLY PE vs Healthcare Sector
| Metric | LLY | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 46x | 26x | 79% above |
| PE % | 48 | 29 | 19 pts above |
LLY is trading at 46x earnings, a 79% premium to the Healthcare sector's median of 26x.
CDNA Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $71.7 | 11% above |
| 20 week MA | $54.9 | 45% above |
| 50 week MA | $34.1 | 134% above |
| 100 week MA | $25.8 | 209% above |
| 200 week MA | $19.7 | 305% above |
CDNA is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 305% above its 200-week average.
LLY Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $1,279.4 | 12% above |
| 20 week MA | $1,218.8 | 17% above |
| 50 week MA | $1,102.2 | 29% above |
| 100 week MA | $954.1 | 50% above |
| 200 week MA | $797.5 | 79% above |
LLY is in an uptrend: it's above all five of its weekly moving averages, and 79% above its 200-week average.
CDNA Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $21.5 | $76.2 | +255% |
| 2021 | $76.2 | $44.9 | -41% |
| 2022 | $44.9 | $11.3 | -75% |
| 2023 | $11.3 | $12.0 | +6.6% |
| 2024 | $12.0 | $21.1 | +76% |
| 2025 | $21.1 | $19.5 | -7.6% |
| 2026 YTD | $19.5 | $79.8 | +310% |
CDNA has the edge over LLY on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
LLY Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $131.5 | $166.7 | +27% |
| 2021 | $166.7 | $273.1 | +64% |
| 2022 | $273.1 | $367.9 | +35% |
| 2023 | $367.9 | $582.9 | +58% |
| 2024 | $582.9 | $783.2 | +34% |
| 2025 | $783.2 | $1,077.8 | +38% |
| 2026 YTD | $1,077.8 | $1,427.3 | +32% |
LLY has finished every year since 2020 higher, and it's up 32% so far in 2026.