CCL
Carnival Corporation & plc
CCL has the edge over F overall, supported by stronger fundamentals and stronger valuation.
F
Ford Motor Company
F has slightly lower modeled downside risk, despite its lower overall score.
CCL Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Healthy | |
| Healthy | |
| Under pressure |
CCL's profitability and cash flow are currently healthy, and its revenue is stable, but its balance sheet is under pressure.
F Fundamentals
| Metric | Status |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Under pressure | |
| Under pressure | |
| Strong |
F's balance sheet is currently strong, and its revenue is stable, but its profitability and cash flow are under pressure.
CCL PE Valuation
| Level | PE | Price | Vs current |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheap | 10x | $24.05 | -18% |
| Forward | 12x | $29.34 | — |
| Current | 13x | $29.34 | — |
| Fair | 14x | $32.52 | +11% |
| Expensive | 21x | $48.32 | +65% |
Historical ranges are pointers, not guarantees.
CCL's PE is in its fair range at 13x. If earnings grow as analysts expect, today's price would be 12x next year's earnings.
F PE Valuation
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CCL Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| Stable | |
| Growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect CCL's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
F Forward outlook
| Metric | Outlook |
|---|---|
| -- | |
| Strong growth | |
| Stable | |
| Improving | |
| Limited | |
| Low |
Analysts expect F's earnings to grow and its profitability to improve, with its revenue holding steady. However, they disagree widely on these estimates.
CCL Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $2.39 | +3.3% |
| Q3 2026 | $2.31 | +17% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.24 | +18% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.27 | +46% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.02 | +40% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.97 | +67% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.90 | +168% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.55 | +384% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.44 | +$1.50 |
CCL has the edge over F on earnings quality, reporting a profit while its opponent remains loss making.
F Earnings Per Share
| Quarter | TTM EPS | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Forward | $1.78 | — |
| Q3 2026 | -$1.97 | -270% |
| Q2 2026 | -$1.87 | -340% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.55 | -224% |
| Q4 2025 | -$2.06 | -241% |
| Q3 2025 | $1.16 | +32% |
| Q2 2025 | $0.78 | -19% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.25 | +29% |
| Q4 2024 | $1.46 | +35% |
F has swung to a loss: it lost $1.97 per share over the past year, after a profit the year before.
CCL Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $8.4B | +3.5% |
| Q2 2026 | $6.7B | +5.3% |
| Q1 2026 | $6.2B | +6.1% |
| Q4 2025 | $6.3B | +6.6% |
| Q3 2025 | $8.2B | +3.3% |
| Q2 2025 | $6.3B | +9.5% |
| Q1 2025 | $5.8B | +7.5% |
| Q4 2024 | $5.9B | +10% |
CCL has the edge over F on sales, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 26% | -1.5 points |
| Q2 2026 | 13% | -2 points |
| Q1 2026 | 9.8% | +0.5 points |
| Q4 2025 | 12% | +2.2 points |
| Q3 2025 | 28% | +0.3 points |
| Q2 2025 | 15% | +5.1 points |
| Q1 2025 | 9.3% | +4.2 points |
| Q4 2024 | 9.4% | +2.3 points |
CCL has the edge over F on profitability, with a higher operating margin.
F Quarterly Revenue
| Quarter | Revenue | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $49.5B | -2% |
| Q2 2026 | $48.3B | -3.8% |
| Q1 2026 | $43.3B | +6.4% |
| Q4 2025 | $45.9B | -4.8% |
| Q3 2025 | $50.5B | +9.4% |
| Q2 2025 | $50.2B | +5% |
| Q1 2025 | $40.7B | -5% |
| Q4 2024 | $48.2B | +4.9% |
F's revenue grew through 2023 and has held roughly level since: $49.5B last quarter, down 2% from the same quarter a year ago.
| Quarter | Margin | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 2.9% | -0.1 points |
| Q2 2026 | 1.3% | +0.3 points |
| Q1 2026 | 5.4% | +4.6 points |
| Q4 2025 | -25% | -28 points |
| Q3 2025 | 3.1% | +1.2 points |
| Q2 2025 | 1% | -2.9 points |
| Q1 2025 | 0.8% | -2.1 points |
| Q4 2024 | 2.5% | +3.1 points |
F's operating margin was 2.9% last quarter, about level with the same quarter a year ago.
CCL Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $712M | -3.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.8B | +14% |
| Q1 2026 | $697M | +119% |
| Q4 2025 | $12M | -96% |
| Q3 2025 | $736M | +17% |
| Q2 2025 | $1.5B | +114% |
| Q1 2025 | $318M | +$688M |
| Q4 2024 | $319M | +29% |
CCL has the edge over F on cash flow, with more consistent year-over-year improvement.
F Free Cash Flow
| Quarter | Free cash flow | YoY |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $3.1B | -40% |
| Q2 2026 | $2B | -54% |
| Q1 2026 | -$1.1B | -157% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.1B | +108% |
| Q3 2025 | $5.3B | +50% |
| Q2 2025 | $4.2B | +24% |
| Q1 2025 | $1.9B | +$2.6B |
| Q4 2024 | $530M | +169% |
F still generates free cash flow, though less than at its 2020 peak: $5.1B over the past year.
CCL Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | -1.4% | -20M shares |
| 1 year | -2.4% | -34M shares |
| 3 years | -2% | -28M shares |
| 5 years | +21% | +236M shares |
| Available history | +100% | +684M shares |
CCL has the edge over F on shareholder dilution, with a more favorable share count trend.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | $548M |
| Q4 2021 | $94M |
| Q3 2021 | $94M |
| Q2 2021 | — |
| Q1 2021 | — |
| Q4 2020 | — |
| Q3 2020 | — |
| Q2 2020 | — |
F Total Shares
| Period | Change % | Net change |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterly | +2.2% | +89M shares |
| 1 year | +0.7% | +28M shares |
| 3 years | +0.6% | +26M shares |
| 5 years | +1% | +40M shares |
| Available history | +1.8% | +72M shares |
F has 4.1B diluted shares, up 0.7% from a year ago.
| Quarter | Spent |
|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | — |
| Q2 2026 | — |
| Q1 2026 | $311M |
| Q4 2025 | — |
| Q3 2025 | — |
| Q2 2025 | — |
| Q1 2025 | — |
| Q4 2024 | $150M |
F spent $311M buying back its own shares over the past year, up 107% from the year before.
CCL Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q2 2026 | 3.1x | Elevated |
| Q1 2026 | 3.2x | Elevated |
| Q4 2025 | 3.4x | Elevated |
| Q3 2025 | 3.5x | Elevated |
| Q2 2025 | 3.7x | Elevated |
| Q1 2025 | 4.1x | High |
| Q4 2024 | 4.3x | High |
CCL's net debt is about 3.1 years of its operating earnings (EBITDA), down from 3.5 years a year ago.
F Net Leverage
| Quarter | Net Leverage | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Q3 2026 | -2.5x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2026 | -2.1x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2026 | -2.0x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2025 | -3.4x | Net Cash |
| Q3 2025 | -2.4x | Net Cash |
| Q2 2025 | -2.2x | Net Cash |
| Q1 2025 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
| Q4 2024 | -1.8x | Net Cash |
F has the edge over CCL on leverage, with a lower net debt burden relative to earnings.
CCL Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 58.6 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 80.8 | Overbought |
CCL's weekly RSI is 59 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 81 (overbought).
F Weekly Momentum
| Metric | Value | Status |
|---|---|---|
| RSI | 41.5 | Neutral |
| Stochastic | 19.6 | Oversold |
F's weekly RSI is 41 (neutral) and its Stochastic is 20 (oversold).
CCL PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | CCL | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | 13x | 18x | 30% below |
| PE % | 39 | 47 | 8 pts below |
CCL is trading at 13x earnings, a 30% discount to the Consumer Cyclical sector's median of 18x.
F PE vs Consumer Cyclical Sector
| Metric | F | Sector median | Relative |
|---|---|---|---|
| PE | N/A | 18x | — |
F has no meaningful PE right now: it lost money over the past year.
CCL Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $26.8 | 9.6% above |
| 20 week MA | $26.3 | 12% above |
| 50 week MA | $27.5 | 6.6% above |
| 100 week MA | $26.6 | 11% above |
| 200 week MA | $21.1 | 39% above |
CCL has the edge over F on trend strength, trading above more of its moving averages.
F Weekly Moving Averages
| Moving average | MA price | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 8 week MA | $12.2 | 2.5% below |
| 20 week MA | $13.3 | 11% below |
| 50 week MA | $13.4 | 11% below |
| 100 week MA | $12.1 | 2% below |
| 200 week MA | $12.1 | 1.4% below |
F is in a downtrend: it's below all five of its weekly moving averages, and 1.4% below its 200-week average.
CCL Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $51.3 | $20.8 | -59% |
| 2021 | $20.8 | $21.2 | +1.7% |
| 2022 | $21.2 | $7.81 | -63% |
| 2023 | $7.81 | $18.5 | +137% |
| 2024 | $18.5 | $25.1 | +35% |
| 2025 | $25.1 | $30.7 | +22% |
| 2026 YTD | $30.7 | $29.3 | -4.4% |
CCL has the edge over F on returns for 2026, with the stronger performance.
F Yearly ROI
| Year | Start price | End price | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | $9.36 | $8.86 | -5.3% |
| 2021 | $8.86 | $20.3 | +129% |
| 2022 | $20.3 | $11.4 | -44% |
| 2023 | $11.4 | $12.2 | +7.3% |
| 2024 | $12.2 | $10.0 | -18% |
| 2025 | $10.0 | $13.3 | +33% |
| 2026 YTD | $13.3 | $11.9 | -11% |
F's yearly returns have swung widely, from +129% in 2021 to −44% in 2022. It's down 11% so far in 2026.